Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
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Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Let's use Hall of Fame debate to highlight a strange player. This started as I was wondering about Boogie Eisenhower's candidacy as I declined the great third baseman's option for the 2034 season. Then I started to look at another player whose option I did pick up (largely by virtue of it being a pittance)
Let's say Cris Vazquez somehow gets to 500 homers. What then? It's improbable but not impossible. He will be 34 for 2034, and needs 90 HR. For the sake of HOF debate, let's say he maintains his current level of production for the next three and half seasons or so, and ends up as a .251/.292/.477 hitter with 500 home runs who is primarily a DH. You look at the slash line and say, ABSOLUTELY NOT! But ... 500 HR is traditionally a shoe-in type milestone mark. And he did it in one of absolutely most difficult parks to hit in. He also played most of his career in a division that was ALMOST ALL pitching parks prior to expansion and re-alignment before the 2029 season. Illustrating this, he has a career wRC+ (which is a park adjusted stat) of 111. So somehow his .251/.292/.477 line is ELEVEN PERCENT BETTER than a league average hitter. That's some crazy park effect. Still, it's hard to put a 111 wRC+ hitter in the hall, especially if that hitter is a DH.
The point here is, what an odd player with an odd career. You can make the argument that maybe I just should have been playing someone else this whole time, but frankly, I've never had that much better options. He's be the only power hitter my system has produced in the fifteen plus years I've had the Crusaders, and so wound up in run producing spots in the lineup by virtue of not having better options. (Signing big name power hitting free agents, who are usually in their decline phase and hoping they don't completely tank here is a very risky proposition.) He was a slightly below average hitter at the beginning of his career, despite being a 30 HR guy right out of the gate. He improved a bit in 2024, and then for the next five years (with the exception of a very poor AVG/OBP year in 2026) was a 135 wRC+, 40+ HR masher. His low on base percentage (.300 to .310 even in his prime) really limited him, but he made up for it with iso power's in the .250 range. You can't understate the effect of hitting environment on this guy. It's hard to look up historical home/road splits, but during his peak seasons, I recall his road splits translating to .285/.320/.600, 50 homer seasons. Last year, he was .250/.289/.465 at home versus .264/.296/.545 on the road. You can look at years like 2026 and 2030, where he was a roughly league average and didn't get on base for anything and say he was marginal, but sometimes that just happens here. We just have years where no one hits sometimes. The other thing that I'm not sure is well adjusted for it how many fewer walks happen in poor offensive environments simply because it's easier for pitchers there. Would Vazquez have walked say, 5-10 times more per year if he'd played somewhere that pitchers actually had to labor at times?
Anyway, he's a favorite of mine, if only for being so weird and defying my urge to phase him out for the last few seasons. After the 2030 season, Cris' age 30 season, when his physical tools started to decline, along with his performance on the field (.228/.265/.466 wRC+ 99) I decided I'd keep him around as a kind of mascot/late inning lefty neutralizer. But he just keeps slugging his way back into more regular playing time. The OBPs are still abysmal (.285ish), but he's still homering every 15 plate appearances (about 47 over a full season), which is utterly remarkable in my park and pretty damn good just about anywhere. His last three wRC+ versus left handed pitching are 150, 136, 117. His contact and power skills really haven't declined at all over the last four seasons or so, and there's no reason to think he won't continue to be effective as a platoon player for a couple more years. Anyway, the answer of course is that he just isn't Hall of Fame material, but he could be the first 500 home run player to not even be considered really at all. And that's cool. And weird.
Let's say Cris Vazquez somehow gets to 500 homers. What then? It's improbable but not impossible. He will be 34 for 2034, and needs 90 HR. For the sake of HOF debate, let's say he maintains his current level of production for the next three and half seasons or so, and ends up as a .251/.292/.477 hitter with 500 home runs who is primarily a DH. You look at the slash line and say, ABSOLUTELY NOT! But ... 500 HR is traditionally a shoe-in type milestone mark. And he did it in one of absolutely most difficult parks to hit in. He also played most of his career in a division that was ALMOST ALL pitching parks prior to expansion and re-alignment before the 2029 season. Illustrating this, he has a career wRC+ (which is a park adjusted stat) of 111. So somehow his .251/.292/.477 line is ELEVEN PERCENT BETTER than a league average hitter. That's some crazy park effect. Still, it's hard to put a 111 wRC+ hitter in the hall, especially if that hitter is a DH.
The point here is, what an odd player with an odd career. You can make the argument that maybe I just should have been playing someone else this whole time, but frankly, I've never had that much better options. He's be the only power hitter my system has produced in the fifteen plus years I've had the Crusaders, and so wound up in run producing spots in the lineup by virtue of not having better options. (Signing big name power hitting free agents, who are usually in their decline phase and hoping they don't completely tank here is a very risky proposition.) He was a slightly below average hitter at the beginning of his career, despite being a 30 HR guy right out of the gate. He improved a bit in 2024, and then for the next five years (with the exception of a very poor AVG/OBP year in 2026) was a 135 wRC+, 40+ HR masher. His low on base percentage (.300 to .310 even in his prime) really limited him, but he made up for it with iso power's in the .250 range. You can't understate the effect of hitting environment on this guy. It's hard to look up historical home/road splits, but during his peak seasons, I recall his road splits translating to .285/.320/.600, 50 homer seasons. Last year, he was .250/.289/.465 at home versus .264/.296/.545 on the road. You can look at years like 2026 and 2030, where he was a roughly league average and didn't get on base for anything and say he was marginal, but sometimes that just happens here. We just have years where no one hits sometimes. The other thing that I'm not sure is well adjusted for it how many fewer walks happen in poor offensive environments simply because it's easier for pitchers there. Would Vazquez have walked say, 5-10 times more per year if he'd played somewhere that pitchers actually had to labor at times?
Anyway, he's a favorite of mine, if only for being so weird and defying my urge to phase him out for the last few seasons. After the 2030 season, Cris' age 30 season, when his physical tools started to decline, along with his performance on the field (.228/.265/.466 wRC+ 99) I decided I'd keep him around as a kind of mascot/late inning lefty neutralizer. But he just keeps slugging his way back into more regular playing time. The OBPs are still abysmal (.285ish), but he's still homering every 15 plate appearances (about 47 over a full season), which is utterly remarkable in my park and pretty damn good just about anywhere. His last three wRC+ versus left handed pitching are 150, 136, 117. His contact and power skills really haven't declined at all over the last four seasons or so, and there's no reason to think he won't continue to be effective as a platoon player for a couple more years. Anyway, the answer of course is that he just isn't Hall of Fame material, but he could be the first 500 home run player to not even be considered really at all. And that's cool. And weird.
Ted Schmidt
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Interesting guy. Proof that the math of park effects can be warped, too. Maybe. I say that because his BABIP has always been decent--depressed a bit by the park, but decent. His big problem is that he's a whiff factory, striking out 180-190 times at his peak. Park factors in OOTP don't do that.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Interesting player, indeed.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
No, the swing and miss is all him. But what makes him so odd is his ability to hit all those homers despite posting terrible OBPs and striking out so much. In a cursory look, I couldn't find a current player who has made a career out of it. Take a guy like Jon Mick or Rupert Grant. Both superior players by ratings (and in general). But when they a have a down year, their power numbers go down too. The don't walk as much. Not Vazquez. When he has a down year, he just doesn't hit singles.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
He reminds me a lot of a better version of real life MLBer Tony Perez's son Eduardo. I remember being a younger baseball fan and just marveling at how this incredibly limited player just crushed left handed pitching. He had one skill, ripping bombs off left handed pitchers, especially relievers. He couldn't do anything else reliably, but did hat so well he was a key player for multiple teams over a 13 year career.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Cochran hit .285/.361/.502 with 491 HR, Bido .262/.367/.510 with 493 HR (both also scored a boatload of runs that Vasquez isn't going to touch). If he ends up at 505ish HR, he still is behind these guys, IMO. If he's one of these aging wonders, and hist 30 HR through 38 and winds up somewhere close to the top 10-12 in career HR, then he has a strong case.
How much does your park suppress right-handed power? It seems right-handed, all power guys do okay in your park, at least power-wise (Vasquez, Eisenhower, Reyes, Wellington, Weiss, even Kendall put up a career high 24 HR)
How much does your park suppress right-handed power? It seems right-handed, all power guys do okay in your park, at least power-wise (Vasquez, Eisenhower, Reyes, Wellington, Weiss, even Kendall put up a career high 24 HR)
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Vazquez isnt close, but i think boogie has a decent chance depending on the year.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Mick is a case of one outstanding year (2031) where he homer once every 14 AB. The rest is about 1 every 17. Grant is a tough comparison because his usage pattern is so different. Vazquez is an iron man who played every day. His homer rat improved when he started platooning.Ted wrote:No, the swing and miss is all him. But what makes him so odd is his ability to hit all those homers despite posting terrible OBPs and striking out so much. In a cursory look, I couldn't find a current player who has made a career out of it. Take a guy like Jon Mick or Rupert Grant. Both superior players by ratings (and in general). But when they a have a down year, their power numbers go down too. The don't walk as much. Not Vazquez. When he has a down year, he just doesn't hit singles.
This is something our 27 man rosters mask a bit. A lot of guys con't get the counting numbers they might have if those two extra roster slots were not available.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Bryan VogelTed wrote:No, the swing and miss is all him. But what makes him so odd is his ability to hit all those homers despite posting terrible OBPs and striking out so much. In a cursory look, I couldn't find a current player who has made a career out of it. Take a guy like Jon Mick or Rupert Grant. Both superior players by ratings (and in general). But when they a have a down year, their power numbers go down too. The don't walk as much. Not Vazquez. When he has a down year, he just doesn't hit singles.
Sergio Ramos is also basically a left-handed Chris Vaszuez. Though he does at least have a .300+ OBP
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Old Ramos maybe. Early career Ramos was a far superior hitter. I was actually thinking about Vogel too. I just have a soft spot for guys that only can do one thin, but do it so well that they can play despite not being able to do anything else.udlb58 wrote:Bryan VogelTed wrote:No, the swing and miss is all him. But what makes him so odd is his ability to hit all those homers despite posting terrible OBPs and striking out so much. In a cursory look, I couldn't find a current player who has made a career out of it. Take a guy like Jon Mick or Rupert Grant. Both superior players by ratings (and in general). But when they a have a down year, their power numbers go down too. The don't walk as much. Not Vazquez. When he has a down year, he just doesn't hit singles.
Sergio Ramos is also basically a left-handed Chris Vasquez. Though he does at least have a .300+ OBP
Ted Schmidt
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Right handed power isn't as bad as left, but it's still bad.udlb58 wrote:Cochran hit .285/.361/.502 with 491 HR, Bido .262/.367/.510 with 493 HR (both also scored a boatload of runs that Vasquez isn't going to touch). If he ends up at 505ish HR, he still is behind these guys, IMO. If he's one of these aging wonders, and hist 30 HR through 38 and winds up somewhere close to the top 10-12 in career HR, then he has a strong case.
How much does your park suppress right-handed power? It seems right-handed, all power guys do okay in your park, at least power-wise (Vasquez, Eisenhower, Reyes, Wellington, Weiss, even Kendall put up a career high 24 HR)
avg LHB .930
avg RHB .920
2B .800
3B .800
HR LHB .800
HR RHB .870
I hate this place. All it does is make marginal pitchers effective. Truly elite pitchers are not really helped much. The overall effect is of course the same, but the net improvement on a 20% reduction of a much smaller number of runs allowed just doesn't matter as much as it does for the srcrub it tricks you into thinking isn't a scrub. And those marginal pitchers don't really work on the road, and can't be relied on in the playoffs.
And it kills ALL batters. Especially left handed power bats. Signing Fernando Moreno was just plain stupid. So all you have is a bunch of unhappy depressed batters who can't get out of a rut.
Look at it this way. All this park does is shrink run differential, which inherently makes you more susceptible to bad luck. More one run games. Errors have more significance. As soon a s Diaz retires (and the park effect is helping him much more now than when he was so dominant early in his career), I'm either bulldozing this place or remodeling it extensively. Retractable roof, dome, grass, 60,000 seats, more or less neutral park factors.
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
The usage and roster size points are well taken. Truly, there were many better players than Vazquez. It's more just that its been interesting how his career has worked out. About half his career PA's are just, "Why not. I don't have much else." and he's been just good enough to keep getting them.RonCo wrote:Mick is a case of one outstanding year (2031) where he homer once every 14 AB. The rest is about 1 every 17. Grant is a tough comparison because his usage pattern is so different. Vazquez is an iron man who played every day. His homer rat improved when he started platooning.Ted wrote:No, the swing and miss is all him. But what makes him so odd is his ability to hit all those homers despite posting terrible OBPs and striking out so much. In a cursory look, I couldn't find a current player who has made a career out of it. Take a guy like Jon Mick or Rupert Grant. Both superior players by ratings (and in general). But when they a have a down year, their power numbers go down too. The don't walk as much. Not Vazquez. When he has a down year, he just doesn't hit singles.
This is something our 27 man rosters mask a bit. A lot of guys con't get the counting numbers they might have if those two extra roster slots were not available.
Ted Schmidt
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
Vogel was an outstanging defensive player with 20-25 SB speed (and a good success rate). He could also hit homers. His BABIP was not great, but not horrific. He had two holes, though...he struck out a lot and very raerly walked. So, he was basically a four-tool player who couldn't walk.
Here's the list of players in BBA history with 2,000 hits, 425 HR, 200 SB, and at least one Zimmer Award
Charles Puckett (HoF) (4 Zimmers)
Jake Urban (HoF) (1 Zimmer)
Emilio Rodriguez (Active) (3 Zimmers)
Douglas Newhouse (HoF) (1 Zimmer at 1B)
Bryan Vogel (Retired 2030) (3 Zimmers)
Here's the list of players in BBA history with 2,000 hits, 425 HR, 200 SB, and at least one Zimmer Award
Charles Puckett (HoF) (4 Zimmers)
Jake Urban (HoF) (1 Zimmer)
Emilio Rodriguez (Active) (3 Zimmers)
Douglas Newhouse (HoF) (1 Zimmer at 1B)
Bryan Vogel (Retired 2030) (3 Zimmers)
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Re: Cris Vazquez - A weird, weird, weird player
One of my first every player spotlights: http://montybrewster.net/MBBA/phpBB3/vi ... 25&t=17197
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