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Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:56 pm
by RonCo
ImageDecember 15, 2026 – Like everyone else, Pedro Hernández hears the whispers. Lucas McNeill is coming, Lucas McNeill is coming. He understands that the guy who plays his position in the minors is viewed as the second coming of the Messiah, that McNeill is rated the #1 prospect in the world, and that there are folks today stating flat-out that McNeill should already have a house in Yellow Springs.

He gets it.

“All I can do is play as good as I can play,” he said yesterday when we caught him at the health club. He had just finished a 45 minute set when we sat down. His towel was draped over his shoulder and his lean frame was rippling with post-iron definition. At 6’1”, 185, Hernández isn’t imposing so much as he is “complete.”

And, as a 23-year-old rookie, the young man from Irapuato (who friends know as "Hawk") played pretty well for the Nine. He saw action in 157 games, managed 14 home runs, 26 doubles, and slashed .290/.325/.434. His bat was better than league average from the middle infield slot (108 OPS+), and he dropped a solid, if not spectacular 1.6 WAR. Yet, it’s his glove that people want to talk about.

For 123 of those 157 games, Pedro Hernández played shortstop. To be fair, he did not play shortstop with any great aplomb. Of the 25 players who started at least 70 games at the position last season, Hernández’s Zone Rating (the mother of all fielding stats) was the worst--a horrific -11.2, meaning his play allowed the opposition to score more than 11 runs more than a merely average shortstop would have allowed, given the same playing time. He committed 16 errors, more than any short stop not names Ryan Savaikie, Jr. (who is really third baseman). People around the league caught wind of this, and started making their own fan videos of him, putting his field work on display for everyone to check out and laugh at. “It’s like the guy was wearing a pizza stone for a glove,” one late night TV commentator said.

The memory burns a bit.

“That’s not my gig, you know?” he said of the experience at short. “I’m a second baseman, but my manager asked me to play the spot, so I played it, you know? I mean, what am I supposed to do? Tell the team I’m not going to do it?” His eyes glitter and he smiles, but you can see the seep-seated resentment down in there somewhere.

The good news was that the team got it, too. “As a short stop,” one scout’s report read, “he’s a pretty decent second baseman.” After considering another season with Hernández at shortstop, general manager Ron Collins went out and acquired Calgary’s Edward Allen to patrol the slot in 2027. This move shoves Hernandez back to the second base slot next season, where he should be a considerably better value.

That 1.6 WAR, after all, was probably at least a full win worse due to the SS albatross hanging around his neck. With his combination of contact and power, the 3.0+ range is not untouchable.

The bad news, however, is that this shift moves young Hawk Hernández directly into the sites of Lucas McNeill fans—who are both loud and fervent.

So, yeah, he’s heard the whispers (which are not always so whispered). He knows the team has begun a soft-touch exploration of trade possibilities. “Ron’s called me,” he says. “He was really straight forward, which I appreciated. They’re not going to rush things for Lucas. The cat still has some things to work out, and Ron told me that he was completely comfortable with me at second base. If that lasts a year, great. If not, well, you know, baseball’s a business, right? I’ve been traded before.”

He’s right, of course. Baseball is a business, and sometimes that business ignores the part of its components that are human. Sometimes a business forgets that it hired you as a writer when it says it needs you to format copy for the next issue. And baseball is a business unlike some others in that when you get asked to step outside your role, you’re exposed to other people who don’t really care about your human side—who only want to see golden Zone Ratings and don’t want to hear such excuses as “it’s not my gig,” which is why you do the job your boss asks you to, right? No excuses allowed.

We talked about being traded. Hawk Hernández came to the Nine as a minor leaguer six years ago. He was 17, and had been signed to a contract earlier by the Atlantic City organization (who he had signed with a year earlier for a $1.7M bonus I thought I was a king then, he said. I was a kid with $1.7 mill. Everyone loved me.). Trades are hard on a guy, though. Probably even harder when you know one is on its way. As you talk to Hernandez, you get the idea that he understands, that it’s like being a turkey on Thanksgiving Day. The axe is cocked and ready to swing. You just don’t know when.

When we were done, he stood up and rubbed the towel over his head.

“All I can do is play as good as I can play,” Hernández said as he walked away.

Yeah, I thought, watching the backs of his feet as he strode down the long hallway to the shower, that sounded like he’d said it a few times before.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:00 pm
by bschr682
5 range = not a 2B. That guy is a 3B.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:06 pm
by RonCo
I think he'll be league average at 2B with his other ratings. But that's best I can hope for. His offense should be enough to make him a better than average guy, though. (That's my hope, and I'm sticking to it. :) )

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:25 pm
by agrudez
Well, after a -11 ZR at SS, let's all just hold hands and agree he's not *that*. ;)

That said, I think he's a below average defensive 2B as well and should at least be learning 3B in ST to increase his tradability.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:28 pm
by RonCo
agrudez wrote:Well, after a -11 ZR at SS, let's all just hold hands and agree he's not *that*. ;)

That said, I think he's a below average defensive 2B as well and should at least be learning 3B in ST to increase his tradability.
Oh, don't get me wrong. He'll be a learnin' machine. :)

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:39 pm
by RonCo
That said, I'm figuring if he can turn a -2.0 ZR or better at 2B (which is achievable ... maybe), his offensive value will put him in the lower registers of the upper half of 2B around the league. If that holds, I can afford to let McNeill's ratings come in for another couple months.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:02 pm
by udlb58
Great stuff Ron. Hawk will be fine as a short term 2B, he won't win any games with his range, but I don't think the plan is for him to pay 150 games there, so he shouldn't kill you there

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Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:22 pm
by ae37jr
I have the same issue with poor range at 2B. I wonder if using the team strategy for defensive shifts would help enough to justify an offensive second baseman. I tried extreme shifting in the playoffs. Not sure if it worked or not though. If I end up playing Shoemaker/Ardon at 2B next season, I'm going to continue the experiment. Another thought... just about everyone(including myself) value range at 2B very high, yet will put any warm body at 1B. Now if I play a team that is chock full of lefty bats, is there a benefit to fielding a first baseman with good range? Is it substantial? Does a 1B with range make a 2B with range any less important?

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:10 pm
by trmmilwwi
Great spotlight.. Fun read.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:02 am
by Ted
I wish one of my players had a 1086 OPS+ That sounds amazing.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:27 am
by RonCo
Oops. I mean ... uh ... yeah ..1086 OPS+, and he can be yours!

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:13 am
by udlb58
ae37jr wrote:I have the same issue with poor range at 2B. I wonder if using the team strategy for defensive shifts would help enough to justify an offensive second baseman. I tried extreme shifting in the playoffs. Not sure if it worked or not though. If I end up playing Shoemaker/Ardon at 2B next season, I'm going to continue the experiment. Another thought... just about everyone(including myself) value range at 2B very high, yet will put any warm body at 1B. Now if I play a team that is chock full of lefty bats, is there a benefit to fielding a first baseman with good range? Is it substantial? Does a 1B with range make a 2B with range any less important?
I am wondering the same thing, and what exactly would be good enough? Would Rodgers' 4 range help Workman's 5?

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Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:36 am
by RonCo
Defense (and range) at 1B does matter, just not as much as at other positions. Whether a good range at 1B helps a bad ranged 2B is an interesting question.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 3:48 pm
by agrudez
In real life, 1b range is mitigated because of how often they have to guard the bag for pick off attempts and because of the probability of facing some rh pull hitter being higher than a lh pull hitter.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:04 pm
by RonCo
I haven't done the study form several versions now, but OOTP's hitter handedness breakdown and its batted ball locations were pretty much bang-on to what one would expect in real life back then. It would surprise me if it was much different now. Anything's possible with OOTP, though.

Someday I'll have to get my old scripts running again. :)

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:45 pm
by RonCo
I ran into this interesting overview of defensive statistics yesterday. Not directly applicable to OOPT, but useful to think about.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:30 pm
by felipe
RonCo wrote:Yeah, I thought, watching the backs of his feet as he strode down the long hallway to the shower, that sounded like he’d said it a few times before.
This is what I got out of it...you were watching his ASS as he walked away...who looks at the back of feet? On the way to the shower? Is that what you tell your wife when she catches you looking at some tail?

"Oh honey, did you notice the shoes he/she was wearing?"

For shame...just be honest, its nothing to be ashamed of to admire an athlete's body;

I catch people all the time scoping me out; I just give them a big smile and an extra wiggle.

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:52 pm
by bschr682
felipe wrote:
RonCo wrote:Yeah, I thought, watching the backs of his feet as he strode down the long hallway to the shower, that sounded like he’d said it a few times before.
This is what I got out of it...you were watching his ASS as he walked away...who looks at the back of feet? On the way to the shower? Is that what you tell your wife when she catches you looking at some tail?

"Oh honey, did you notice the shoes he/she was wearing?"

For shame...just be honest, its nothing to be ashamed of to admire an athlete's body;

I catch people all the time scoping me out; I just give them a big smile and an extra wiggle.
This response... such a Stu move... :hi5:

Re: Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 7:27 pm
by RonCo
The great thing about being a writer is that once it's out of your hands, the story is all about what the reader brings to it. :)

Pedro Hernández: Dead Man Walking?

Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:05 am
by Lane
RonCo wrote:The great thing about being a writer is that once it's out of your hands, the story is all about what the reader brings to it. :)
Ron, what were saying is that your stories need more ass in them. Please rectify this for your next article. Thanks.


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