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2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 1:58 am
by Bob Breum
With our shortstop Reynaldo Serrano once again landing on the IL, I thought I'd take another look at the trade that brought him to Montreal. We were desperate for a productive shortstop and decided to take a chance on Serrano, who was (and is) Fragile.

We received Serrano and Ziya Turkes. We hoped that Turkes would be our solution at designated hitter. He was not. After recording a .301/.326/.504 (139 OPS+) line with Vancouver in 138 plate appearance, he managed a meager .248/.308/.373 (87 OPS+) for us in 334 plate appearances.

Serrano has been great when he has been available. We lost him two weeks after acquiring him in 2061, but he started 105 games for us in 2062 as he made the transition from second base to shortstop. He hit .279/.304/.482 (114 OPS+) and earned 3.3 WAR. This season, of course, has been a dumpster fire, as he only started 20 games for us before going down for the third time in the last sim. He should be available to us if we make the playoffs. I have not written him off.

Vancouver received 1B/DH Juan Hernandez, LF Phillip Higgins, RHP Chris Parker, LHP Abdul-Halim bin Bansur, and $2,000,000. Of these, they traded Hernandez to Cape Fear and Higgins to Twin Cities.

I had very high expectations for Juan Hernandez at the time of the trade. I thought he had an upside similar to Raul Gallegos. He was the BBA #23 prospect with big-time power and solid contact skills. He was the headliner of the deal for Vancouver. He is only 22 and may yet amount to something, but he is now rated 45/45 and hit .238/.291/.377 (80 OPS+) with -1.3 WAR this season for Cape Fear.

Phillip Higgins was a former first round draft pick of ours that never panned out. He had no future with us at the time of the trade. He is now rated 40/40 at age 23 and at best, projects as a fourth outfielder on a second division team. He has yet to make his BBA debut.

Chris Parker is a control artist and swing man who can be a back of the rotation piece or provide long relief. This season with Vancouver he is 3-2 in nine starts with a 3.91 ERA (94 ERA+) and a 1.17 WHIP.

The most promising of the lot today is Abdul-Halim bin Mansur, age 25. He's a crafty lefty with 9 stamina and elite movement on his four pedestrian pitches. He projects as a solid fourth or fifth starter. Last season he made seven starts, going 5-2 with a 4.60 ERA (77 ERA+), but he is not a finished product.

PlayerWAR
Reynaldo Serrano3.6
Ziya Turkes-0.1
-----
MTL TOTAL3.5
-
Juan Hernandez-1.0
Chris Parker0.6
Abdul-Halim bin Bansur0.0
Phillip HigginsN/A
-----
VAN* TOTAL-0.4
The book is not closed on this trade. There is much history yet to be written. But I do not regret the deal now and doubt that I will ever have any reason to do so.

*This total is misleading. This is the correct WAR for these players, but not the correct WAR for Vancouver, who traded away Hernandez and Higgins. I leave the computation of the actual VAN WAR as an exercise for the reader.

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:26 am
by shoeless.db
I leave the computation of the actual VAN WAR as an exercise for the reader.
Homework? On a Friday?

(worst teacher ever!)

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:41 am
by BaseClogger
The analysis gets messy because there were several players involved in the Hernandez trade. Mendoza is a regular with upside.

Finances are also a consideration. Every other player is making league min while Serrano now has a modest contract extension.

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 10:37 am
by BaseClogger
Also, Hernandez being a 45 shows how much performance impacts that calc. He hasn’t lumped *that* much in his ratings.

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 10:56 am
by Bob Breum
BaseClogger wrote:
Fri Jul 11, 2025 10:37 am
Also, Hernandez being a 45 shows how much performance impacts that calc. He hasn’t lumped *that* much in his ratings.
I really don't understand him. He seemed like a sure thing.

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 10:59 am
by Bob Breum
BaseClogger wrote:
Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:41 am
The analysis gets messy because there were several players involved in the Hernandez trade. Mendoza is a regular with upside.

Finances are also a consideration. Every other player is making league min while Serrano now has a modest contract extension.
I completely agree. I looked at going down that rabbit hole and said, Nope, I'll let someone else do that. Anytime that Vancouver is involved, the trade tree is liable to be extensive.

Re: 2063 - Reynaldo Serrano Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:07 am
by Knucklehead254
Bob Breum wrote:
Fri Jul 11, 2025 10:59 am
BaseClogger wrote:
Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:41 am
The analysis gets messy because there were several players involved in the Hernandez trade. Mendoza is a regular with upside.

Finances are also a consideration. Every other player is making league min while Serrano now has a modest contract extension.
I completely agree. I looked at going down that rabbit hole and said, Nope, I'll let someone else do that. Anytime that Vancouver is involved, the trade tree is liable to be extensive.
Now this looks like a job for me