2059 - Trade Analysis: Brooklyn/Nashville Cano For Docking And Munoz

[aaronweiner]

The link to the trade can be found here:

http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 31&t=50862

And a link to both team pages:

Brooklyn

Nashville

(Team 1 and Team 2! That's fun.)

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Brooklyn has been one of the worst teams in the BBA for more than a decade. Nashville has been one of the best, winning an absurd 350 games over the past three years, two pennants, three Cartwright appearances, and a Monty. With one of the lowest teams in the league and one of the highest, the deal was unsurprisingly a prospect for player deal.

Except that the team that got the player, Jorge Cano, was Brooklyn.

And the team that got the prospects? Nashville, who received one of the seven 80-potential prospects in the minor leagues, Brian Docking (a list that expands to nine if we look at 75s, and just 20 if we go all the way to 70 and 34 for 65s), and a solid project outfielder, Jose Munoz, both of whom were scouting discoveries. Docking joined the organization just last year, and Munoz has improved his abilities multiple times on his way up to reaching short-A by age 21.

It's a topsy-turvy world! Brooklyn swings for the fences by getting a guy who's done a lot of that over the past two seasons, and Nashville adds to their league-best farm system, with thirteen players in the top 100 - a list that doesn't even technically include Docking yet! What does this do to Nashville? To Brooklyn? Let's read on.


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The argument for Nashville dealing away Cano:

Over the past two years, Cano has been one of the better players in the BBA. Despite not playing in an environment overly conducive to home runs, over the past two seasons Cano has posted a 8.3 WAR, over 80 homers, and 244 RBI while serving as a middle of the order player for the overwhelmingly successful Bluebirds.

So why trade a player with three years of cost control and those kinds of numbers who should be entering his prime at age 27? Well, a few things happened to Cano last year which made him potentially expendable to the Nashville dynasty. When the changeover came between OOTP 24 and OOTP 25, Cano's ratings dropped precipitously, and so did his batting average, from a respectable .276 to a less impressive .246. Though year over year batting averages are fickle, Cano's new normal suggested that it might be common for him to post those sorts of numbers, and he never posted strong batting averages in the minor leagues, meaning it's hard to say whether the .276 or the .246 was the more accurate number.

Furthermore, they put him into a long-term development lab, and Cano not only was unable to gain contact, he lost bat speed and even some of his batting eye in the rigor of the training. Cano's contact ability is now considered below average, and his ability went from being a prolific powerhitter to being merely above-average. His batting eye is still above average as well.

As a result, there is a very good chance Nashville had seen the last of the 2058 Cano, who had a .910 OPS, and the best they were likely to hope for was the 2059 version, who still had a good 126+ OPS. However, with his ratings recession, it is possible that they were staring at a quality regular instead of the superstar they thought he was, or worse. The OOTP engine had decided that Cano was a below-average major leaguer by this point, rating him a 45 with a potential of 55 (reasonable, if he could continue his performance from last year). Good time to deal.


The argument for Brooklyn acquiring Cano:

Brooklyn has seen a lot of their top draft picks make the majors in the past few years, and have a potential #1 starter joining the team in Jose Torres in the next few years. There are several players on this team that hit league average or are likely to (draft position or acquisition in parenthesis): Alfredo Trujillo (2), Wilson Prieto (1), Lawrence Miranda (119 in 2052, nice pick), Emilio Morales, Jr. (free agent, re-signed in 2059 through free agency, 7 WAR since 2055 but league replacement last year at 1B) and Don Moore (free agent, at least against righties, relative bargain at $5.3 million). Juan Schorr is a decent bench bat, and Salvador Allende will probably serve in some capacity when he's off the DL.

Along with Cano, that would likely represent the most functional lineup Brooklyn has had since their surprise and stark sore thumb 75 win season in 2057, the only year in which they did not lose at least 102 games since 2045 and nearly twenty above their other 13 seasons in that time, which averaged 56 wins. That year, they hit .281 as a team, and if Cano can hold his numbers it would give them a middle of the order of Cano, Trujillo, and Moore, all of whom were quality bats last year.

Additionally, the team has two outstanding pitching prospects in Torres and current #1 starter Stephen Clulow (both #1 overall picks). Clulow has had a number of ticky-tack injuries over the past few seasons, but is off to a good start to his career and has a chance to step forward even further this year. The team also addressed the bullpen quite a bit in free agency. If Brooklyn feels that they are likely to take the next step forward because of these players, adding a player was an appropriate idea. But is that player Cano?



Analysis of the trade:

Brooklyn:

Presuming that Cano is still the sort of player we saw in Nashville the last two years, he does fit a potential need for the team. Cano, along with Morales and Moore, represents a concentrated powerhitting strategy, and the team had a gaping hole going forward at third base after presumably declining the option on Salvador Allende next season. However, Cano might not be the solution to this problem. Cano is a righty hitter, and while the team may choose to adjust their ballpark in future years to account for the righthanded powerhitting core, right now Brooklyn is basically broke financially, so it is unclear as to how they would afford this. Brooklyn's ballpark depresses righty powerhitters by 10%.

Additionally, Brooklyn spent a lot of money on free agents over the past two years. Their cap is not clean going forward, as they stand to have a cap number about $6.5 million less next season and drop only around $10 million off the cap by 2062. It seems very unlikely they will easily be able to re-sign Wilson Prieto, if they wanted to do that, given their finances. There may be some financial adjustments made in upcoming years, so it is not impossible that Brooklyn's finances will look a lot better in 2061 or 2062 than it does in 2060.

And all of this begs the question: why is Brooklyn, who lost a BBA-worst 109 games in 2059, making a push forward with this much prospect capital? We haven't even gotten to the discussion of what they gave up yet, so let's do it.

Cano is currently rated as a 45-level player in the BBA. Currently, there are 307 45-rated players in the BBA. Did I mention before that there are exactly seven players in the minor leagues with a potential of 80 or better? Some other GMs believe that Docking is not an 80-rated prospect, however, but even if we just made him a meager 65, I made the point that there are only around 34 of those.

I have already made this point elsewhere, but pics or you don't believe it, so, consult the chart at the bottom. I'll wait. (Also I am not particularly great at putting stuff in the middle of documents, apparently. Maybe I'll repost in the comments.)


Back? Note that the median potential rating for 9 power players is 70, basically regardless of contact, though Ackerman's superb defense does make that a bit very little bit skewed. Let's say it's 65 and not 70, to be kind. You may also note that of all the players on this list, however, exactly two have a contact rating of at least seven (very high for the OOTP25 BBA), Docking and Yuu Suzuki. Suzuki, of course, is one of the top five pure hitters in the BBA, though his inability to draw a walk will always limit his advanced stat upside. (It may be worth mentioning that Suzuki's numbers, outstanding as they are, are only more impressive knowing he plays in pitcher's paradise Sacramento.)

Docking is a little better rounded than Suzuki as a prospect, but he is a very, very long way away from the majors. He has also had to start his Rule 5 clock earlier than expected. He is also, by game rating, one of the top ten prospects in the minor leagues. It will be a long time until he is ready, and one never knows, but there are so few players who fit this description that he is a fairly rare prospect, even while he is uncertain. And we haven't even mentioned Munoz yet, who is a bit underdeveloped at age 21 but does look like a fairly solid prospect (and is top 200).


Nashville:

I can keep this one short: Nashville replaced the potentially fading Cano with ostensibly nearly fully developed top 100 prospect Francisco Calderon. While he is unlikely to do what Cano did in the last two years, it is also reasonable to expect that Cano would ALSO not do what he did the last two years.

In exchange for a player they did not overwhelmingly need (their win projection fell all the way to a BBA-best 109 - by 14 games over #2!) and who might or might not be all that good anymore, they acquired one of the top ten rated prospects in the minor leagues plus another top 200 prospect. This leads directly to the Ron Collins article, in which he talks about why NOT to trade with a behemoth.

Like I said, short.


Final Analysis:

I rate this trade much more "Good for Nashville" than I do "Bad for Brooklyn." Nashville cannot lose this trade, and can only win it, regardless of what Cano does; as Ron put it so aptly, they didn't need Cano to win a pennant. He was a bonus, assuming he could still play at a high level. The worst thing that can happen to Nashville is that they do not win the trade because one or both of the prospects don't make it, which creates a zero for Nashville, not a negative. It's also a few extra bucks on their cap, so maybe that's a slight win, too.

If Docking gets reasonably close to his potential, this is a meteoric win for Nashville whether or not Cano plays well. They even win this trade if JUST MUNOZ makes it. Also, they could at any point retrade Docking for something that isn't a 45 rated third baseman, which is also good.

If Brooklyn gets 2058-9 Cano, they probably got what they paid for in this trade, making it a wash, which is to say that they paid for the best possible version of Cano without being at all certain they were getting that player. If they get what looks like 2060 Cano, the deal goes to a lot worse for Brooklyn, which is why I have hedged with a small negative x (an average of 2058-9 Cano and 2060 Cano).

However, even if Brooklyn DOES get the version of Cano they were hoping for, the deal is still highly suspect. It is far from certain that Brooklyn will compete at a high level this year. They would have had to have hit on a lot of their speculation and a lot of things would have to go right for them, especially given their horrid defense and their marginal rotation. Additionally, Cano makes their already sketchy cap situation worse, not better, as there's a good chance they're paying for 2058-9 Cano even if they don't get him. They're going to have to win a lot more games to justify this deal, and right now, I don't see it.

So this deal cannot be a lose-lose. In very unique circumstances, i. e. Brooklyn's team plays out of their mind and makes the playoffs, raising their fan interest, budget, and income, it could be a win-win. Most likely, this is a loss for Brooklyn in every sense regardless of how Cano plays and a win for Nashville, short term, long term, and intermediate term.

And, in the words of one Sean Marko, give me my eight points.

[jiminyhopkins]

Perfect!!

[aaronweiner]

Perfect!!

I think that oughta do it.

[Dington]

Well done. I was trying to ship Cano off lats season and, actually, often as a prospect. The dev lab didn't help obviously, but I've been looking for a better glove at 3B and often saw Jose Ramos playing over Cano last season. I'm surprised he had 146 GS, to be honest. Maybe it wasn't towards the second half of the season, but Ramos was usually in with my groundballers on the mound. Not big on Docking, but I'd gladly trade you the shiny blue 80 for your 60 rated Gabriel Manuel.

[aaronweiner]

Well done. I was trying to ship Cano off lats season and, actually, often as a prospect. The dev lab didn't help obviously, but I've been looking for a better glove at 3B and often saw Jose Ramos playing over Cano last season. I'm surprised he had 146 GS, to be honest. Maybe it wasn't towards the second half of the season, but Ramos was usually in with my groundballers on the mound. Not big on Docking, but I'd gladly trade you the shiny blue 80 for your 60 rated Gabriel Manuel.

Woot! That's so nice to hear.

Have a GREAT day.

[Dington]

Well done. I was trying to ship Cano off lats season and, actually, often as a prospect. The dev lab didn't help obviously, but I've been looking for a better glove at 3B and often saw Jose Ramos playing over Cano last season. I'm surprised he had 146 GS, to be honest. Maybe it wasn't towards the second half of the season, but Ramos was usually in with my groundballers on the mound. Not big on Docking, but I'd gladly trade you the shiny blue 80 for your 60 rated Gabriel Manuel.

Woot! That's so nice to hear.

Have a GREAT day.

But he’s one of only seven 80-rated players in the minors. Fun fact: Cano is one of 9 BBA players to hit 39 HR last year. The other 8 make millions of dollars. Cano makes $500k.

[aaronweiner]

Well done. I was trying to ship Cano off lats season and, actually, often as a prospect. The dev lab didn't help obviously, but I've been looking for a better glove at 3B and often saw Jose Ramos playing over Cano last season. I'm surprised he had 146 GS, to be honest. Maybe it wasn't towards the second half of the season, but Ramos was usually in with my groundballers on the mound. Not big on Docking, but I'd gladly trade you the shiny blue 80 for your 60 rated Gabriel Manuel.

Woot! That's so nice to hear.

Have a GREAT day.

But he’s one of only seven 80-rated players in the minors. Fun fact: Cano is one of 9 BBA players to hit 39 HR last year. The other 8 make millions of dollars. Cano makes $500k.

It's so rare that someone makes my point for me while not trying to do it.

Again, have a GREAT day. And bless your heart.

[Dington]

Woot! That's so nice to hear.

Have a GREAT day.

But he’s one of only seven 80-rated players in the minors. Fun fact: Cano is one of 9 BBA players to hit 39 HR last year. The other 8 make millions of dollars. Cano makes $500k.

It's so rare that someone makes my point for me while not trying to do it.

Again, have a GREAT day. And bless your heart.

Not sure what point was made. I’m two dum. Just seemed you covered 80 rated players so I offered you one.

[aaronweiner]

But he’s one of only seven 80-rated players in the minors. Fun fact: Cano is one of 9 BBA players to hit 39 HR last year. The other 8 make millions of dollars. Cano makes $500k.

It's so rare that someone makes my point for me while not trying to do it.

Again, have a GREAT day. And bless your heart.

Not sure what point was made. I’m two dum. Just seemed you covered 80 rated players so I offered you one.

Again. Bless your heart.

If you're looking for a namecalling session, golly, I think there are services for that.

[aaronweiner]

Well done. I was trying to ship Cano off lats season and, actually, often as a prospect. The dev lab didn't help obviously, but I've been looking for a better glove at 3B and often saw Jose Ramos playing over Cano last season. I'm surprised he had 146 GS, to be honest. Maybe it wasn't towards the second half of the season, but Ramos was usually in with my groundballers on the mound. Not big on Docking, but I'd gladly trade you the shiny blue 80 for your 60 rated Gabriel Manuel.

You know, I am going to do you a favor, because after all, you're just a simple trader from a Southern state. So get that hayseed out of your mouth and listen up, y'all.

You made my point for me, without trying, because it actually would NOT be insane to deal Gabriel Manuel for Docking. There are multiple reasons I would not do that deal.

But Gabriel is a mostly developed 22 year old who is currently rated as the #11 prospect in the BBA. And it would not be madness to deal him for Docking. Unwise, especially considering that I have set my team up specifically to accommodate for Gabriel. But not madness.

I hope that clears up the matter for you.

[lordtoffee]

Well done on the analysis Aaron.

I've been slowly but surely getting better financials, and have a plan to better allow me to spend ever closer to the cap. I also think that the offseason I had before this trade was something that provided improvement to the team after bottoming out two years ago. Getting Cano wasn't something that I was expecting, but I am confident that Cano combined with the development lab improvements, an improved bullpen, and a retooled rotation that still needs work but will give me a little better chance in games will all combine to mean better results in 2060.

[shoeless.db]

My struggle with this trade is the fact Brooklyn traded for Bill Kuhn who is a less apt 3B/1B with full team control and a very similar hitter only to let him walk to Atlantic City this offseason via the Rule 5 Draft. I'd rather have the two top prospects and Kuhn than Cano by himself.

My trade analysis on my trade with Brooklyn -- http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 24&t=49655

EDIT: From everything Ben has said about the trade, he’s enjoying the ride and having fun trying to field a better team. In the end, that’s all that really matters.