2057 - Trade Analysis – Boise/Nashville – A WAY-TOO EARLY Look Back

[RonCo]

The deal was controversial the moment it was inked. The behemoth Nashville Bluebirds acquired David Molina, arguably the most electric young arm in the league, and veteran outfielder Cinema Jones, while sending Boise five players, a few of which were prospects.

We know what’s happened now.

Or at least we know a little of what’s happened.

Molina, 23 years old, blew out his arm (again) and has undergone Tommy John surgery. I say “again” because the kid folks know as “The Fanning from Banning” had elbow reconstruction in high school, then suffered a lengthy bout of shoulder inflammation in his first season with the Boise parent club. The idea of injury was not minor. There was also some worry about the Bluebird’s assignment of Molina to the stopper role at the ripe young age of 23.

Still, until the injury, the deal was huge. Another case of the rich getting richer and the Boise getting … um … Boisie-r.

The question, of course, is how we see the deal now.

Will Molina come back? Or better stated, when Molina comes back, will he be that same Fanning from Banning that everyone expects him to be?


FIRST, LET’S TALK ABOUT NOW:

It’s worth noting that Molina wasn’t overpowering in his 33 game stint with Nashville. After posting a 2.01 ERA with Boise, the kid dropped a 4.22 ERA in Nashville (though to be fair, the FIP was an eye-popping 1.95, and his BABIP was .350, which you’d expect to come back). So he was good, but not blisteringly so.

The Bluebirds also got the 34-year-old Jones, but that was mostly as a cash thing for Boise. Jones has not been good, and I’m expecting he’ll be available as a free agent next season.


SO, WHAT ABOUT FUTURE MOLINA?

First, the chronology. Molina will be sidelined until at least mid-April next year, and maybe until Mid-May. One expects the team will be more careful with him this time around, and maybe give him a few weeks of low-pressure rehab activity, so let’s say he’ll be available in mid-May to mid-June. Will he come back better? That’s possible. Since the time of his injury, team officials have actually upgraded the potential of his sinker from 9 to 10.

Go figure.

The scouts also continue to list him as “normal” when it comes to his injury proneness, which just has to make you wonder, but it is what it is. Ultimately, since Nashville sent Molina to AAA this season to extend his rookie year contract, this means mostly that next year (his last under min-salary, is not going to be as huge as it could have been, and that (assuming he does come back to be able to play out the full contract, Nashville will need to pay him arbitration numbers, at least. That hurts the team’s value received on the trade, but doesn’t crash it.

Of course, weird things can happen in a rehab.

There’s a chance the kid will flame out, in which case the deal looks golden for Boise.


SO LET”S TALK ABOUT THE PROSPECTS

The five guys Boise got in the deal play out like this:

SP Jeremy Nickerson is with the Spuds now. He’s 23 and an 11/7/7/ starter posting a 3.20 ERA to go with his 4-1 record. He’s sitting out with an elbow strain now, and he’s got his own injury worries to deal with. Nickerson’s span of team control is equal to Molina’s even if his upside isn’t. Still, he’s a nice addition if he can stay healthy.


RP Hector Fuentes is 33 years old, and also with the Spuds. He’s been meh (4-4, 4.66). He’s a free agent at the end of this year, and one suspects that unless something interesting happens, Boise management will let him go there. So really, he’s not a factor in the assessment given what I think the Boise plans would be.

LF Eduardo Morales is a 28-year-old, RHB outfielder who has made a total of -.7 WAR in parts of five seasons in the BBA level. He played 15 games in Boise before being sent to AAA Salt Lake where he’s hitting .289 and made 1.9 WAR. This makes sense. He’s a pretty good AAA player. I can be proven wrong later, but he seems like a non-factor in the analysis, too.


SP Samir Qasim is a 24-year-old reliever currently pitching at AAA Salt Lake, and posting a 3.29 ERA. A 9/7/7 lefty with five pitches has some interest, and I can see him throwing in the majors. His splits seem to say he can face the occasional RHB without terrible results. He has all six seasons of control left, but only one option season left, so one assumes he’ll be in Boise next year. If not, this hurts the Boise side of this deal (which, of course, is not the reason to pull his trigger, but it’s there nonetheless).


LF Nihat Gurler is an 18-year-old 50-rated 1B prospect who has been handed around a little, moving from Charm City, to Nashville, and now to Boise. His numbers in Rookie Ball have not been good anywhere, though, and the vagabond nature of his travels seems to have resulted in the fact that no coach’s teachings have stuck. As best I can tell, he’s not grown at all, and he posted a .203 average in Mazatlan this year (after a .161 in Lynchburg). Still, he’s 18. Anything can happen.


BOTTOM LINE

At this point is seems clear that the core of the deal is (and was) Molina for Nickerson, Quasim, and Gurler.

To me, Gurler is a true lottery ticket. Worth holding, but not worth paying more than a buck for. So right now I’ll discount him a considerable amount. If he pans out and grows big, then this analysis is off base. But for me, then, it’s Molina for Nickerson and Quasim.

Qasim seems predictable enough. I like him. I don’t see him as being a major impact player, but he’s a good mark on the Boise side of the ledger.

It’s easy to point to Molina and say that his injury risk means this might blow up for Nashville, but the fact is that Nickerson’s injury history is about as bloody and tenuous as Molina’s. He’s pitching now, but at also 23 he’s lost big chunks of the past two seasons. Things could go south any moment … and the fact is that Nashville wasn’t using him much anyway. As I see it, Nickerson was organizational depth for Nashville. If one assumes the injury risk is the equal on both sides, then the deal is basically Qasim for the performance gap between Nickerson and Molina.

Yes. It is 100% the case that the future will play out as it plays out, and that future Ron will look back to see that either Molina or Nickerson (or both) will wind up being heaps of ash on the surgeon’s table. If only one of these players emerges from the process as a real impact pitcher, then the other side “wins.”

Or, if Molina comes out of it with seriously reduced ratings, then the world looks better for Boise. By next summer we’ll know more.

But as a pure projection right now, even with the big injury, I still give Molina’s performance gap a large edge.

[Dington]

Molina’s stamina went from 4 to 3 prior to the trade, so Boise wanting a true starter made sense. This worked out about exactly as I predicted. Both pitchers being on the IL. Looked like a blockbuster, but in reality it wouldn’t be super impactful.

[RonCo]

Like the title says, I think it's way too early to make a final call. Molina's injury swings the deal from a strong lean to Nashville to a more nuanced situation. The best part for Boise is that Nickerson's injuries haven't been too debilitating, yet. So that's on their ledger. If he can stay healthy until 25 or 26, that could change the mix, too.

[Dington]

Like the title says, I think it's way too early to make a final call. Molina's injury swings the deal from a strong lean to Nashville to a more nuanced situation. The best part for Boise is that Nickerson's injuries haven't been too debilitating, yet. So that's on their ledger. If he can stay healthy until 25 or 26, that could change the mix, too.

That’s what I found interesting. I thought this would be a cool case study of severely injured ‘normal’ pitcher vs. minimally, but often injured ‘fragile’ pitcher.

[RonCo]

Well, sure. But the elephant in that room is that there is a huge difference in Molina and Nickerson's base rating value. Molina can literally lose half his stuff and still be a viable pitcher in the BBA. To pretend that doesn't exist is to miss the entirety of the story.

[RonCo]

On a single PA basis (as in, if you had to name one pitcher in all of baseball to get one out, who would it be?), David Molina's base ratings make him the very best pitcher in the whole of the BBA. If it weren't for the lack of stamina, there would be no real question that pre-injury he would have been the best starter in baseball, and it really wouldn't have been super-close.

If he recovers with those ratings, then the situation remains.

[Dington]

If it weren't for the lack of stamina, there would be no real question that pre-injury he would have been the best starter in baseball, and it really wouldn't have been super-close.

And if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.

These things were considered when the trade was made. If he hadn’t had the injury history or stamina lump, he would’ve gotten a king’s ransom.

[RonCo]

Well, okay then. We have a pretty large difference in view points.

I've been wrong before. As in all things, time will tell.

[Dington]

Well, okay then. We have a pretty large difference in view points.

I've been wrong before. As in all things, time will tell.

It will certainly be worth monitoring. I think I mentioned somewhere here or are Discord, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re both irrelevant by the time they’re 30.

[Dington]

Also, I wish we had a way to reduce injury proneness with PPT.

[RonCo]

Well, okay then. We have a pretty large difference in view points.

I've been wrong before. As in all things, time will tell.

It will certainly be worth monitoring. I think I mentioned somewhere here or are Discord, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re both irrelevant by the time they’re 30.

At 19 stuff, Molina has to slide a VERY LONG WAY to become irrelevant. It's certainly possible, but I'd put it as pretty unlikley that he fall as far as to be truly irrelevant.

[RonCo]

Also, I wish we had a way to reduce injury proneness with PPT.

Right now, since he's at Normal if you believe OOTP, I don't figure Molina could be improved much.

[Dington]

Also, I wish we had a way to reduce injury proneness with PPT.

Right now, since he's at Normal if you believe OOTP, I don't figure Molina could be improved much.

If it goes into effect, I already planned on using it on Lolololo. I don’t think a fragility rating is going to prevent Molina’s arm from imploding after existing major elbow (now x2) and shoulder injuries.

[Knucklehead254]

I love this. We need more modern trade analysis

[BaseClogger]

I still like Nickerson and there’s something to be said about the fact he could potentially throw 200 innings and Molina will likely never throw more than 100. Not surprised the guy who wanted a stopper to win best pitcher has this take.

[Trebro]

I think the key point here is that even if Molina retains most of his ratings, if he can't play, he can't help Chad. And worse, Chad can't count on him playing, so he'll have to have a backup plan for as long as he has Molina. Which is why I think he'll trade him sooner rather than later.

[Dington]

I’m open to trade offers on him now. Doesn’t mean I’m selling for pennies on the dollar, but if you’ve got young prospects and want to gamble with him, be my guest. I’m in a fortunate position where I can gamble with him otherwise I would probably be trading him more eagerly.

[RonCo]

No one should ask you to trade anyone for pennies on the dollar. The question is what is the right dollar amount for Molina's future value.

I argue it is pretty high. You seem to be arguing that it's not. So I guess we'll see what price you'll take.

[Dington]

No one should ask you to trade anyone for pennies on the dollar. The question is what is the right dollar amount for Molina's future value.

I argue it is pretty high. You seem to be arguing that it's not. So I guess we'll see what price you'll take.

I don’t entirely agree. His value IMO has dropped after a third major injury. I’d still reckon it’ll take a good offer, but I can’t value you him as highly as I would’ve prior to this injury.

[RonCo]

Of course it will take a good offer. All offers that work are, by definition, good for that situation.

So you'll trade him now for less now, which makes sense. Thank you. I knew we could get on the same page.

It makes sense that you wouldn't want to ask for too much for a guy you think is _most likely_ to be be out of baseball by the time he's 30.