2057 - Trade Analysis – Charm City/Boise - A "Whatever" Arms Deal?

[RonCo]

The deal, as it went down, seems innocuous enough on the front of it.

Charm City acquires lefthanded SP Mauro Mendoza (with Boise retaining 10% salary, or about a million bucks a year), and Boise gets righthanded SP Waseem bin Suhayb. Mendoza had been on the waiver wire, and the salary retention made the deal seem kind of cap neutral, so the deal made sense in that way.

It’s also fair to say these guys are similar enough that you could look at them and say “that works.” Both are pitchers with good-not-great performance backgrounds, guys you’re okay with having in your rotation, but who, really, you’d kind of like to replace if you could do it easily enough. Mendoza is 31 and is 96-60 on his career – which has been spent pitching for good teams. His career ERA is 4.04 on a FIP of 4.20. Bin Suhayb is 28 with a career record of 55-50, with some good teams in there. He’s a 4.57 career ERA on a 4.90 FIP. On the whole, I’d rather have Mendoza, but by ratings that desire is slim and there’s the age difference.

Like I said. On first pass it seems like kind of a wash. One of those deals you pack away and kind of forget.

But I’ll admit I was a little flummoxed in where Boise GM Ben Teague’s head was on this one, and it wasn’t until this morning that I saw CCJ’s TN and took some time to look at it more closely and really figured out why that flummoxation existed.

Looking at it deeply from Charm City’s viewpoint I get it. Mendoza (as CCJ GM announced in his TN) being lefthanded handed has an emotional value…but the bottom line is that in CCJ’s ballpark it has a fairly large competitive advantage in that it means the entire Jimmie staff turns around all switchies to hit from the right side of the plate, and makes all LHB hit against a platoon split. Given the power swaps in their park, this gives the Jimmies a boost.

That’s sneaky smart. I think there’s a reason the team is doing so well.

And, if this were the only thing at play, we’ll I’d just say “good deal” and move on.

But there’s the finances of it, too. Assuming Mendoza takes his player option at the end, his deal has two more years on it. With Boise paying 10%, it brings that CCJ cap hit down to $8.1M. He gets an extra million if he goes 175 innings, which his history is hit and miss over, so we’ll say that he’ll hit it once and miss it once. Regardless, that won’t hit the cap, meaning that cap structure of the deal is there at $8.1M.

The contract for bin Suhayb, however, runs five more years at $8.375M. This means that CCJ’s cap hit drops by a quarter million bucks, and its contract risk is considerable lessened by the deal. They are out of it in two seasons rather than five, and if Mendoza still happens to be performing well, an extension is not off the table.

But Boise – who recently announced they were officially in “rebuild mode” took on an $8.4M contract for the next five seasons. This kind of screws with my mind. Usually, if you’re rebuilding, you want to void yourself of bigger contracts. That means it seems to me that Mendoza would have been preferable. I don’t know. I’m going to guess that they are looking at bin Suhayb as a long-term investment, and that they expect his five-year deal means he’ll be there when the rebuild is complete. If so, good on them, I suppose. That concept makes me ponder the deal where they let go of The Fanning from Banning, though. Molina was under control, and as Nashville showed us, that control could have been extended another season. But at least the Molina brought in a bunch of kids who might be young in the upswing. Is bin Suhayb going to be the veteran leadership of the next Spud wave?

I dunno.

We’ll see.

As I said, they’re both perfectly interesting little pitchers who have proven they can get a job done. Suhayb could well be a Boise mainstay for the next five years and my ruminations are just mental acrobatics made by a backyard gymnast. On the whole of it there’s really nothing to go horribly wrong here, but it does make me sit and ponder what each of these team’s plans are – which is one of the things I find most pleasant about the Brewster.

Plans upon plans. Some I see. Others I don’t.

But time marches on, and the truth of the final result will always come out in the end.

[Dington]

That concept makes me ponder the deal where they let go of The Fanning from Banning, though. Molina was under control, and as Nashville showed us, that control could have been extended another season.

I dunno what you're talking about.

[BaseClogger]

That's pretty much my take. If I'm understanding what you're saying CCJ is doing with platoon splits then that's the same thing I was hoping to do with my next park's dimensions.

[jiminyhopkins]

it does make me sit and ponder what each of these team’s plans are – which is one of the things I find most pleasant about the Brewster.

Plans upon plans. Some I see. Others I don’t.

Wait til you find out that some teams don't have a plan... or a clue!







Ok, just one team....

[RonCo]

Wait til you find out that some teams don't have a plan... or a clue!

Gasp!

[cheekimonk]

I have 2 LHP in my rotation, 2 in my pen, and 1 setup dude. I wasn't comfortable putting another LHP in ML, I want all 5 of my LHP in ML, not AAA, and Mendoza is out of options blocking young lefties (which I will have). So, get something for him or have him claimed off waivers. I could have done the latter but he sailed thru waivers twice. bin Suhyab is a righty that has an option and can hold things down while the new staff/pen rises thru the ranks. The contract is longer and Mendoza probably has an edge over Suhyab talentwise, but he'll only be around long enough to flip (I'm not planning on adding any FAs of course so I'm not hungry for the cap space coming from Mendoza moving along in 2 years). Basically, Suhyab gives me a bit more flexibility than Mendoza, and 3yrs younger, only with a longer contract. But Suhyab is fragile so I'll probably end up paying for 2 TJ surgeries and turf toe.

It was 3am, too, though I was 100% sober. CCJ jumped in pretty quickly...which was fine.

It really is refreshing to see trade analysis and I appreciate the post! It gives me a neutral set of eyes and I have to actually type out why I pulled the trigger which is depressing but fine...

[cheekimonk]

it does make me sit and ponder what each of these team’s plans are – which is one of the things I find most pleasant about the Brewster.

Plans upon plans. Some I see. Others I don’t.

Wait til you find out that some teams don't have a plan... or a clue!

Ok, just one team....

I have a spreadsheet. That counts as a plan, right?

[ae37jr]

The only part of the Charm City side of the deal that doesn't make sense to me was giving bin Suhayb that contract in the first place. I know they love their lefty starters, so to give a meh righty a 6 year #2 starter money contract surprised me.

Aside from that, they shed some years in a bad contract swap for similar caliber pitchers, with the one they are getting back being a preferred lefty.

I don't get the deal as much for Boise. bin Suhayb is significantly younger and at least as far as OOTP Potential ratings go... slightly better. So this is not a rape trade or anything like that. Just given that they passed Mendoza through waivers a few times, it seemed like a salary dump was the original goal. I wonder if they retained 50%, could they have saved money and gotten a prospect or two back instead. Because bin Suhayb is going to be just as hard to trade as Mendoza if they are doing the full on rebuild.

[DaveB]

The only part of the Charm City side of the deal that doesn't make sense to me was giving bin Suhayb that contract in the first place. I know they love their lefty starters, so to give a meh righty a 6 year #2 starter money contract surprised me.

Aside from that, they shed some years in a bad contract swap for similar caliber pitchers, with the one they are getting back being a preferred lefty.

I don't get the deal as much for Boise. bin Suhayb is significantly younger and at least as far as OOTP Potential ratings go... slightly better. So this is not a rape trade or anything like that. Just given that they passed Mendoza through waivers a few times, it seemed like a salary dump was the original goal. I wonder if they retained 50%, could they have saved money and gotten a prospect or two back instead. Because bin Suhayb is going to be just as hard to trade as Mendoza if they are doing the full on rebuild.

The contract extension on my part was not really understanding what the talent level of the league was, thinking bin Suhayb would increase production, and wanting a solid inning eating RH SP. Also bin Suhayb downgraded a touch shortly after the extension.