2060 - Trade Analysis - Charm City/Montreal
Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2023 7:54 pm
On February 26, 2056, there was an interesting trade. It went like this:
Charm City acquires:
SP Carl Vincent
Montreal acquires:
CF Bill Morley
OF Shirai Matsumoto
CF Marcus Chilcott
For those not keeping score, this was a trade between the two top teams in the Atlantic. Charm City was looking to plug some holes for a three-peat, while new management in Montreal was looking to do some serious retooling after losing over 20 combined WAR to free agency. Montreal had a stated goal to make the team tighter and faster; small ball that fit their ballpark best. It clearly liked what it saw in the outfielders floated by Charm City, but was the price too high? Carl Vincent was Montreal’s best pitcher, and still a few years from free agency. He has quite a future ahead of him, but can the same be said for Morley and Matsumoto? This was also a high-risk trade given the division rivalry. Any imbalance in Charm City’s favor could easily doom Montreal’s chances at contention.
Who won this trade?
I think it was Charm City.
It is true that high-quality starting pitchers and centerfielders don’t grow on trees. Vincent is a workhorse who has never had a losing record and should be counted on for 4+ WAR a season. He is also just hitting his prime at age 28, and still has a few years before free agency. If he can pitch as expected, Charm City will benefit greatly. So far in 2056, he is indeed pitching as expected going 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA as a fifth starter.
On the other hand, only Matsumoto is an everyday player, and so far has a -0.4 WAR. Sure, he is fast and is a good defensive outfielder, but he needs to get on base more to use his speed. And he is already 30. Morley is just starting against lefties and is managing just 0.1 WAR. He is also fast and a superb defender, but is even older at 35. At this point the math doesn’t look good for Montreal.
Even though I don’t like using WAR as a lazy basis of comparison, Vincent’s WAR so far is 0.6 versus a combined -0.3 for the two outfielders in Montreal. If perhaps Montreal had more pitching depth where Vincent was not an anchor, I would view things differently. But Montreal needs a pitcher like Vincent. Every team needs a pitcher like Vincent.
Perhaps if the third player obtained from Charm City was a highly touted prospect, then things could even out. But Chilcott is unlikely to move the needle as he eventually moves up from AA. He does look to be a very similar player to Morley and Matsumoto, and maybe could even develop into a starting role in a couple years. But even when adding all three players together at their collective peak, it is unlikely to equal Vincent.
This is my first trade analysis and I hope that I am not coming across as too one-sided. I know there are considerations that aren’t obvious from an outside perspective. High quality defensive outfielders are not easy to get, and the need was immediate. I hope the trade works out for both teams in the long run (as long as they never do Louisville any harm).
Charm City acquires:
SP Carl Vincent
Montreal acquires:
CF Bill Morley
OF Shirai Matsumoto
CF Marcus Chilcott
For those not keeping score, this was a trade between the two top teams in the Atlantic. Charm City was looking to plug some holes for a three-peat, while new management in Montreal was looking to do some serious retooling after losing over 20 combined WAR to free agency. Montreal had a stated goal to make the team tighter and faster; small ball that fit their ballpark best. It clearly liked what it saw in the outfielders floated by Charm City, but was the price too high? Carl Vincent was Montreal’s best pitcher, and still a few years from free agency. He has quite a future ahead of him, but can the same be said for Morley and Matsumoto? This was also a high-risk trade given the division rivalry. Any imbalance in Charm City’s favor could easily doom Montreal’s chances at contention.
Who won this trade?
I think it was Charm City.
It is true that high-quality starting pitchers and centerfielders don’t grow on trees. Vincent is a workhorse who has never had a losing record and should be counted on for 4+ WAR a season. He is also just hitting his prime at age 28, and still has a few years before free agency. If he can pitch as expected, Charm City will benefit greatly. So far in 2056, he is indeed pitching as expected going 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA as a fifth starter.
On the other hand, only Matsumoto is an everyday player, and so far has a -0.4 WAR. Sure, he is fast and is a good defensive outfielder, but he needs to get on base more to use his speed. And he is already 30. Morley is just starting against lefties and is managing just 0.1 WAR. He is also fast and a superb defender, but is even older at 35. At this point the math doesn’t look good for Montreal.
Even though I don’t like using WAR as a lazy basis of comparison, Vincent’s WAR so far is 0.6 versus a combined -0.3 for the two outfielders in Montreal. If perhaps Montreal had more pitching depth where Vincent was not an anchor, I would view things differently. But Montreal needs a pitcher like Vincent. Every team needs a pitcher like Vincent.
Perhaps if the third player obtained from Charm City was a highly touted prospect, then things could even out. But Chilcott is unlikely to move the needle as he eventually moves up from AA. He does look to be a very similar player to Morley and Matsumoto, and maybe could even develop into a starting role in a couple years. But even when adding all three players together at their collective peak, it is unlikely to equal Vincent.
This is my first trade analysis and I hope that I am not coming across as too one-sided. I know there are considerations that aren’t obvious from an outside perspective. High quality defensive outfielders are not easy to get, and the need was immediate. I hope the trade works out for both teams in the long run (as long as they never do Louisville any harm).