Trade Analysis - Charm City/Montreal

[RT60]

On February 26, 2056, there was an interesting trade. It went like this:

Charm City acquires:

SP Carl Vincent

Montreal acquires:

CF Bill Morley

OF Shirai Matsumoto

CF Marcus Chilcott

For those not keeping score, this was a trade between the two top teams in the Atlantic. Charm City was looking to plug some holes for a three-peat, while new management in Montreal was looking to do some serious retooling after losing over 20 combined WAR to free agency. Montreal had a stated goal to make the team tighter and faster; small ball that fit their ballpark best. It clearly liked what it saw in the outfielders floated by Charm City, but was the price too high? Carl Vincent was Montreal’s best pitcher, and still a few years from free agency. He has quite a future ahead of him, but can the same be said for Morley and Matsumoto? This was also a high-risk trade given the division rivalry. Any imbalance in Charm City’s favor could easily doom Montreal’s chances at contention.

Who won this trade?

I think it was Charm City.

It is true that high-quality starting pitchers and centerfielders don’t grow on trees. Vincent is a workhorse who has never had a losing record and should be counted on for 4+ WAR a season. He is also just hitting his prime at age 28, and still has a few years before free agency. If he can pitch as expected, Charm City will benefit greatly. So far in 2056, he is indeed pitching as expected going 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA as a fifth starter.

On the other hand, only Matsumoto is an everyday player, and so far has a -0.4 WAR. Sure, he is fast and is a good defensive outfielder, but he needs to get on base more to use his speed. And he is already 30. Morley is just starting against lefties and is managing just 0.1 WAR. He is also fast and a superb defender, but is even older at 35. At this point the math doesn’t look good for Montreal.

Even though I don’t like using WAR as a lazy basis of comparison, Vincent’s WAR so far is 0.6 versus a combined -0.3 for the two outfielders in Montreal. If perhaps Montreal had more pitching depth where Vincent was not an anchor, I would view things differently. But Montreal needs a pitcher like Vincent. Every team needs a pitcher like Vincent.

Perhaps if the third player obtained from Charm City was a highly touted prospect, then things could even out. But Chilcott is unlikely to move the needle as he eventually moves up from AA. He does look to be a very similar player to Morley and Matsumoto, and maybe could even develop into a starting role in a couple years. But even when adding all three players together at their collective peak, it is unlikely to equal Vincent.

This is my first trade analysis and I hope that I am not coming across as too one-sided. I know there are considerations that aren’t obvious from an outside perspective. High quality defensive outfielders are not easy to get, and the need was immediate. I hope the trade works out for both teams in the long run (as long as they never do Louisville any harm).

[Dington]

Hard to evaluate a trade this early, but would like to have seen Montreal get a better prospect in return. The two rentals are nice, though.

[BaseClogger]

Seemed like a clear win for Charm City from the get-go. Morley is comparable to some of the FAs that were available over the offseason, Matsumoto is a corner outfielder which is a dime a dozen currently, and Chilcott is a mediocre prospect. I think Vincent could fetch 6/$90M on the open market.

[Bob Breum]

"One man's trash is another man's treasure."

We had our reasons. Here is just one of them:

Erik and I are both scarred after trading for a big-time ace pitcher who was Fragile in another league. We desperately needed another solid starting pitcher, and we took a chance on this very accomplished pitcher. We knew the risk. He never threw a single pitch for us in the regular season or playoffs. He was injured near the end of spring training. It was very costly for us in multiple ways. We gave up multiple low- to mid-level prospects to obtain him, we had no way to replace his talent after he went down, and we had a large amount of dead money weighing down our flexibility.

To be fair, we also took a flyer on trading for a Fragile Chipper Jones, and he rewarded us with an MVP season before collapsing two years later, during his walk year.

We do not believe that a team should have a significant amount of its payroll invested in Fragile or Wrecked assets. We inherited a lot of Fragile players when we assumed control of Montreal. Role players who are Fragile are fine, but we are generally very risk averse in this regard.

When I wrote the season preview for Charm City, I said:

Second base: Dave Ackerman is a young (25) superstar with four Gold Gloves at the keystone while delivering an average annual WAR of over 6 across the last three seasons. He’s a towering figure at 6’5” with elite power, crushing 45 home runs last season while driving in 104 and stealing 24 bases. My only concern with Dave is that he is Fragile. Losing him for any length of time will certainly impact the ballclub.

QED.

[Bob Breum]

Hard to evaluate a trade this early, but would like to have seen Montreal get a better prospect in return. The two rentals are nice, though.

I viewed Chilcott as a throw-in. I would've made the deal without him.

[DaveB]

On my end the lynchpin is Mike Cox. I had he and Morley as basically even with Morley the better defender and Cox a slightly better hitter on paper. Wouldn’t have made the deal without Cox due to the time frame of the deal (still bit me a little because I needed a 5th OF who could handle CF in case of an injury or rest.

Vincent has been good and we milked an extra year out of him before he hits free agency.

Ackerman’s injury will make a 3peat more difficult, but life goes on next man up.

[BaseClogger]

There's the Vincent injury.

[RT60]

Ouch. That is brutal. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds long term.

[Bob Breum]

Both Carl Vincent and Bill Morley are no longer with the clubs, so I thought it would be interesting to look at how the trade has panned out so far.

Let's start with the big leaguers:

MONTREAL

Player	2056 WAR	2057 WAR	Total WAR
Morley	+1.1	+3.4	+4.5
Matsumoto	-0.8	N/A	-0.8
TOTAL	+0.3	+3.4	+3.7

CHARM CITY

Player	2056 WAR	2057 WAR	Total WAR
Vincent	+1.1	+2.5	+3.6
TOTAL	+1.1	+2.5	+3.6

Charm City traded Vincent and received two prospects in return. Here are the teams' remaining prospects from the deal:

MONTREAL

25-year-old (AA) Marcus Chilcott is 35/35 overall. He is primarily a utility guy who can play corner infield and corner outfield extremely well, and a decent center field. His ceiling looks like a BBA bench player on a second division team. He has high Intelligence. He has yet to hit for league average OPS at any level.

CHARM CITY

20-year-old José Valle is a switch hitting shortstop, a legitimate shortstop with 10 range/arm who can also play corner outfield well. His overall ratings are 20/45. He gets low marks in several personality categories, but is neutral in work ethic/intelligence. His batting ratings will need to improve if he's going to crack a BBA lineup, but he's only 20.

20-year-old Gabriel Carlos is a borderline starting pitcher with three plus pitches (including a legitimate changeup) and 6 stamina. His overall ratings are 20/40. He's a Sparkplug with high Work Ethic/Adaptability. He'll need to improve his control if he's going to succeed in a starting role. As young as he is, and with the positive intangibles, he may grow into long relief role in the big leagues.

The early returns on the trade are a wash, but the jury is still out on the youngsters. Charm City holds two lotto tickets, while Montreal has a future depth piece in case of injuries.

[DaveB]

I won’t lie. I thought this was a theft when the trade was made. I expected Vincent to be very good for us, but injuries team hurt him. Loved Morley as a backup. Had no idea he had a season in him like last year. Thought Matsumoto would be a loss, but he struggled after the deal.

[BaseClogger]

Ended up being WAR neutral. A win for both teams unless Chilcotte drastically changes the equation.