2054 Atlantic City/Sacramento Flores Trade Analysis

[neugey]

2054 Atlantic City/Sacramento Flores Trade Analysis

by Lem Piker Sr., BBA expert analyst

The follow-up campaign to Sacramento's 2053 championship season has been somewhat nonchalant so far. But this last week, GM Doug Olmsted decided a message needed to be sent to his team, if not the entire Frick league: the Mad Popes were not going to tolerate being in second place in the Pacific to Hawaii much longer. A major move had to be made.

Enter Carlos "Tag" Flores. The Mad Popes pitching staff, already 1st in starter ERA and FIP, was augmented with the acquisition of the two-time Nebraska award winner. The loyal congregation of Sacramento fans was overjoyed by the move, and really didn't pay much attention to what the Mad Popes had to give up here.

Sacramento now spots a deep rotation, featuring at least three great lefties in Flores, Joe King and Robert Hanson. Left-handed hitters with significant splits will be nervous when the Mad Popes appear on the schedule. But one team that won't have to worry is Johnson-side Atlantic City, who were Sacramento's trade partner in this recent exchange.

So just what is the cost of a Nebraksa-level starting pitcher in his mid-to-late prime? The BBA as of late is rather pitching-rich, so not necessarily as much as you might think. In this trade, the Gamblers primarily got young AAA/BBA pitching depth in return for their ace.

Let's examine the players involved, and the financial ramifications to both teams in this trade consummated last week:

Sacramento:

The Mad Popes will inherit Flores current $17 million salary, but Atlantic City will retain 50% payment responsibility. That's a big deal here, because Flores has two balloon-ish player options coming up - $23 million in 2055 and $24 million in 2056. I suppose it's a good thing there are two teams sharing this contract now!

But despite the expense, Flores will be a rock for Sacramento. He's a team captain who is mostly impervious to injury. He still has great velocity for a 33-year old, and his changeup makes professional hitters look like fools. And Sacramento almost for certain now has the deepest stable of pitchers in the Brewster.

Sacramento also received another AAA starter, 27-year-old Topan Adjeng, in this trade. The Mad Popes like his talent and were willing to inherit Adjeng's current arbitration-derived $1.3 million salary. Adjeng has two more years of control and 2 option years remaining and will be a nice plan B option to call-up should the Popes ever need it.

Atlantic City:

Outside of splitting the bill on Flores, the only contract of note inherited in this trade is the $2 million owed to new LF Juan Martinez for this year and 2055. He may become a platoon option or reserve outfielder for the Gamblers and should do fine in that role.

SP James Robinson is probably the best pitcher here obtained by Atlantic City. He's only 21 but has had adequate seasoning in the minors to be promoted at a liking per GM John Momberg's wishes. He's a 40-man player and will make the minimum if elevated this year. He has three plus pitches and has been racking up the strikeouts in AA. If Robinson elevates his game, he could be a fixture of the rotation for many years to come.

SP John Schmitt is a good control-oriented pitcher. The 25-year-old righty has been moved from reliever to starter a few times during his development, and seems to be fine either way. Schmitt will bring needed depth to Atlantic City's high minor league system.

SP Tokugawa Takahashi is an experience major-league lefty making the league minimum. He will have the tall order of replacing Flores spot in the rotation as best he can. He should be serviceable, and has an impressive 5 years of team control still remaining.

Josh Ridenhour is a AAA center field whose calling cards are home runs, base stealing and defense. Asking for anything more from him though could be a tall order. He's only 22, but would have to make substantial developmental strides to be an everyday player in the Brewster.

Summary:

The Gamblers lost Flores but did manage to secure two quality arms at AAA on the verge of making the majors as mid-rotation pieces, in addition to an experienced lefty who will fill the void made by Flores. But Atlantic City fans have to be crushed. This is clearly a marker that the team is entering a rebuild, as if the current 2054 Johnson standings were not already evidence enough.

It does indeed make sense for the Gamblers to rebuild and get younger/cheaper while Flores' retained salary still lingers. They probably won't be close to the cap maximum for a few years. They'll probably make their moves in 2058 or beyond.

The Popes, at least in the pitching department, are now prepped to defend their title. This trade seems like a no-brainer for them. The farm is well stocked and they should be able to survive the losses of Robinson and Schmitt long-term.

It seems like this trade is slightly in Sacramento's favor. Perhaps Atlantic City could have gotten another young green-banana prospect. But it's hard to negotiate trades of this nature when draft pick trading isn't allowed in the league. A lot will hinge on the performance of Flores. If he pitches well enough to help earn his own ring with the Popes, this was certainly the right move for Sacramento. But the Gamblers will look like expert crap-shooters here if Flores produces middling results and Robinson becomes a solid ace/#2 man in the majors by age 25. We'll have to see how this trade looks a few years from now.

[Jwalk100]

Flores has player options in 2055 and 2056. Atlantic City is gambling that Flores has a great season and opts out. Sacramento is also taking a gamble. If he stays, the Gamblers will be paying 11.5 mil in '55. If he opts in '56 they will be on the hook for 12 mil.

Risk for both teams here.

[shoeless.db]

“The only risk is not taking one.” — Fuckif Iknow

[neugey]

Flores has player options in 2055 and 2056. Atlantic City is gambling that Flores has a great season and opts out. Sacramento is also taking a gamble. If he stays, the Gamblers will be paying 11.5 mil in '55. If he opts in '56 they will be on the hook for 12 mil.

Risk for both teams here.

I'd be shocked if Flores turns down either player option. $23/$24 million is a heck of a payday and he has "Low Greed" attribute.

[trmmilwwi]

Nice writeup! The salary definitely factors in but too much pitching is never a bad thing.

[Jwalk100]

“The only risk is not taking one.” — Fuckif Iknow

Didn't Custer say that at his last stand?

[Lane]

Des Moines and Long Beach were unimpressed