The Brewster

I had kept my eyes on Torres, who I had wanted as a pairing/future replacement for Thum, but the initial ask, while reasonable, was not anything YS9 could provide.

Looking at what was received, it would have still been a tall ask for us, basically hoping Torres rebounded a bit more than he might in exchange for further depleting the future system while getting Torres on a team that couldn't afford him to fail.

I don't think I could manage that and sleep soundly, as I'm working on actually getting my lower levels to produce a few starters on the field.

On the other hand, Rocky Mountain is in a window for sure and it makes sense to grab Torres. He's a great support who can be more later but if not it won't matter as much because it's less likely they'll be building a window the way I expect we will.

On Mike's side, the Sox get more options to try and pick the team out of the basement and move on now in case Torres backstep is long term. I am a little surprised the return wasn't a little bigger but I suspect the Sox didn't see him as a part of the plan and grabbed a solid offer.

To me, it's a win both ways, but it all depends on how Torres develops and who he fills the middle infield with.

Thanks for the write up.

Torres's price came down in part because he's trending down, at least in OPS+ and WAR, and in part because I'm frankly bored with a last place team and just felt like doing something. I originally wanted two young sure things 50 potential or higher in return, instead I settled for three rolls-of-the-dice at 40-50 potential*. Maybe one of them will hit.

Obviously I could have waited until the off-season, but then everyone is focused on FAs. Plus, Torres's off-year, at least in terms of AVG/OBP, may be a harbinger of things to come. As mentioned, his OPS+ and WAR are moving downward. I thought selling now, when he has 30 HR for a second baseman, was the best moment. And he's young still, so that proverbial change of location could lead to a strong rebound in that Rocky Mountain thin air.

Plus, like I said, I was bored.

After trading Torres and Pritchard, the last-place Black Sox went 5-1. Torres's replacement, Çölasan, called up from AAA, went:
21 AB, 9 H, 2 HR, 7 RBI, .429 AVG, 1.312 OPS. Go figure.


*to be clear, I look beyond and often ignore overall potential ratings, it's just generally an easy shorthand for discussions.

tylertoo wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:14 am

*to be clear, I look beyond and often ignore overall potential ratings, it's just generally an easy shorthand for discussions.

I've wondered what the consensus is on this topic amongst the veteran Brewster GMs. In my experience, individual ratings can make a 45 a better prospect than say a 50, for example, but that it can't make up more than ~5 overall POT points.

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:15 am

I've wondered what the consensus is on this topic amongst the veteran Brewster GMs.

I remember a Brewster podcast back in the day with @RonCo and Ted in which they (iirc) said they wished overall potential would just go away, because the figure can be so misleading. Still, it's hard not to sort by overall potential when looking at a long list of youngsters.

I don't put too much stock in overall or even potential rating. It's basically a combine of overall skills that can get really sloppy with role players. Bunting and running can get overvalued when eite while platoon splits are also undervalued by overall ratings

tylertoo wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:14 am

As mentioned, his OPS+ and WAR are moving downward.

Hoping its just a product of the teammates around him. Hoping we can take the pressure off and just let him do his thing.

GoldenOne wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:19 pm

Hoping its just a product of the teammates around him. Hoping we can take the pressure off and just let him do his thing.

I hope so as well. I only mention it in terms of his selling price, not necessarily as predictive. It would be more concerning if he was 29 or 30 but he's still just 26.

Give me a team of hand-picked 45s over a team of random 55s everyday, please.

Yeah the game puts too much weight on areas that don't matter as much contextually. OVR/POT are a decent rough gauge of quality, but you get a lot more from individual ratings and making your own value judgment.

re: this trade, I think it's tough to be selling right now and deals will inevitably feel a bit riskier. However, I anticipate that over the next few seasons that farms will start to look relatively better as the strong vets retire. Hope this deal works out well for both sides.

I always try and use a combination of what the game says in terms of potential ratings, stats, farm system ratings, and a dash of real life logic. Granted, my record isn't great the past couple of years.