TL:DRGoldenOne wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:28 amEl Paso Receives:
-- SP Slobodan Omeragic (Randy is also posting a PPT reward for Omeragic)
-- 3B Malik bin Mazin
-- P Mal Knapp (S A)
Des Moines Receives:
-- OF Hector 'Junior' Cano, Jr.
Des Moines:
Cano is a superstar but I have some concerns about his future based on recent lumping and leaving comfy, offense-friendly confines.
El Paso:
Bin Mazin is a good player and could be a very good one. Future is probably at 1B though, which hurts his value.
Omeragic is overpaid for his production but a change of scenery could do him some good.
Knapp is a bumper, which is good, but hopes for his future require continued bumping, which is less good.
Ok, so I have several gut feelings about this one right away before I start unpacking:
1) Was Kevin in Calgary asleep at the switch here? This is your boy, Kevin!
2) I'm surprised that this was a roster player heavy return. The Frontier is loaded with talent, El Paso (or whatever they'll become in 2053) is likely behind at least Mexico City, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Calgary talent-wise. I wouldn't have been surprised to see a prospect heavy return here with a reset in mind for a GM that's new to the franchise.
My personal feelings aside, there's more to unpack here than it seems at first glance. Let's start with the obvious side of this and talk about Cano in Des Moines.
Hector Cano Jr is a superstar level CF in the BBA. Full stop. In his first four full seasons in the BBA he's put up WAR numbers of 7.3, 7.9, 9.3, and 7.6. He's brought more life and energy to an El Paso franchise that has had a rocky start to its existence than any other player. If you rate trades based on who got the best player, it's probably pretty easy for you to look at this and think Des Moines won, and handily. It might even be hard to argue with that assessment based on the results of the players involved. There's alot to like about Cano, but for me his but is too big. He's a great player, plays a great CF, BUT...
BUT he plays in, perhaps, the most offense friendly park in the BBA. It's not close. El Paso is the band-boxiest band box in the league.
BUT he dumped 2 points of Contact and a point of Eye at the start of the season. Very concerning for a player who was 24 at the time.
BUT he's gonna get PAID in a couple of seasons. Hard to argue he hasn't earned it, but he'll very likely be signing an untradeable contract before the 2054 or 2055 season, which could be risky business for a player with a significant ratings loss in his past.
If we just look at Cano's buts for a while, it makes El Paso's reasoning for dealing him easier to understand.
But what to deal him for? I have no knowledge about what offers El Paso did or didn't get here. I don't have the same preferences as he does. I don't even know where this team will play next season or what the park factors will look like. I can only assess the trade based on what I see here.
Bin Mazin is, in my opinion, the main get here. He's the same age as Cano (25) and had a breakout year, posting 4.2 WAR this year for a Des Moines team that almost almost broke perhaps the most onerous BBA record in existence by making the playoffs. He's a good bat, not a great one in the curent scope of the league. His glove... is barely passable at 3B. He posted a -6 ZR at 3B and as such is probably a 1B long term, which hurts his appeal. He's locked in a $7.6M in what looks like an arbitration buyout deal, which could be a bargain if he levels up again, which he certainly could. El Paso will be hoping so. Bin Mazin's floor is probably as a solid, every day 1B. His ceiling is something like a 5-6 WAR, perennial all-star hopeful.
Slobodan Omeragic is one of a crop of GBC SPs who have migrated to the BBA ranks over the last few years. The learning curve has gotten to many of these guys and Omeragic is no exception as his numbers in his two seasons in Des Moines have certainly been disappointing based on the contract he was given. You'd expect better than 85 and 84 ERA+ numbers for $14M a season. I would expect that when El Paso moves they'll move to a more pitcher friendly setup which will help but unless he can find his strikeout touch or plays in front of a top 5 defense I have a feeling he's going to struggle in the BBA. Omeragic has potential but he needs help. He's got a mid-rotation ceiling, maybe higher if he can figure out how to get to 10 or 11 K/9. His floor is... frightening. I can see a situation where he doesn't figure it out and ends up either getting released or sent out in another deal just to balance the books. Very volatile.
Knapp is a prospect. I guess? He's a potential prospect. A prospect-prospect. Or something. There's alot to like about him. He's a newly 19 year old lefty with three very good pitches. He's a significant bumper already. His minor league numbers until a small sample in Short A as an 18 year old
this season have been excellent. Grading prospects always makes fools out of us, but it's hard not to see the potential in Knapp. The injury bug has been relentless in the minor leagues of late, if Knapp can avoid it, and keep developing, the sky is the limit for him. If he is what he is, the jury is out. Depends on how you feel about 5 movement. As it stands right now, he needs a little help to be a noteworthy contributor at the BBA level.
The Verdict:
As a trade grader, I have to lean Des Moines on this one, especially in the short-term. They got the best player in the deal right now. They got out of Omeragic's deal, which is looking like a lemon at the moment. They get to have the optimism going into the season that only comes from adding a superstar caliber player. Des Moines gets better right now and I don't think El Paso does and they also didn't get a multi-prospect package, which is why I'm not as high on this deal for El Paso. Bin Mazin should be a solid player for a lot of years. Knapp is an interesting prospect that needs a little help. If he keeps bumping, he could be a top half rotation anchor. Omeragic is the downer for me. He's an expensive project and I think El Paso will need to find a role where he's effective he can maybe start to play to his ratings a bit. The let's-wait-and-see take feels like a total copout most of the time for me but I think, long term, the final grade on this deal hinges on what Cano does. There's a 2055 version of Cano that has put up 3 more seasons of 7-9 WAR, gold glove campaigns. There's also a 2055 version of Cano that has just signed a $20+ million per year deal and lumps again.
