Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

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Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by mragland » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:43 am

This one will need to be updated a few years down the road, but this is as things stand at the end of the 2049 season.

Click on image to enlarge.
Zalapa_trade_tree.png

What if I told you that Valencia and Montreal made the biggest trade of 2044, and the biggest winners of the deal were Mexico City and Sacramento?

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On August 25, 2044, the Valencia Stars traded star second baseman and likely future hall of famer Ángel Zalapa to the Montreal Blazers for four players: Collin Browning, a 24 year-old pitcher who had made 3 unimpressive starts for the Blazers, but who scouts nevertheless thought could be a middle of the rotation arm (60 potential), or an outstanding (80 potential) reliever; Eric Fabre, at this point in his career, a broken down, 31 year-old backup catcher; Pedro Calderón, a 19 year-old fringe (45 potential) relief prospect; and Yodo Sato, a 16 year-old product of the Montreal international complex of some promise (65 potential) as a second baseman.

The two teams were in very different situations. Montreal was attempting to put together a winning season, while Valencia was about to plumb the depths of a long rebuild. Montreal would get their winning season, but it would be in the following year.

At the time, the Valencia General Manager, Greg Smothers, was looking for a way out from under his two largest contracts, those of Zalapa and Aaron Haney, noting that, “I mostly need some salary relief so Zalapa would be my preference to move, though [it's] likely Haney will go either now or in the offseason.” This deal cleared all of Zalapa's current and future salary off of Valencia's books ($27M per year through 2046), though it added Fabre's $10M in annual compensation through 2045. Smothers would be out as GM before he could make good on his plans regarding Haney.

For outside observers, the primary piece the Stars got out this deal was Browning. Wrote Ted Schmidt, “[Collin] Browning is a 25 year old right handed late bloomer, who has the makings of becoming a nice mid rotation starter or potentially one of these 150, mid 2 era stoppers. He's a nice piece, with a clean injury history.” Calderón and Sato were considered 'lottery tickets', and Fabre was clearly just a salary offset. In order to buy-in on Browning, however, one had to ignore the rumors regarding poor work habits that had stunted his development in the first place.

Browning would never amount to anything in Valencia. He would move up and down between the club's AAA squad and its big league active roster. He posted a 122 FIP- in 103 innings pitched. New Stars GM Neil Thomas would place Browning on waivers, curiously, in the last week of the 2046 season. Sacramento would claim him and in the 2047 season would make something of him. Browning, still making the league minimum, would make 49 stellar appearances in relief for the Popes (51 FIP-, 2.0 WAR). In 2048 he put up good, though not as scintillating, numbers (86 FIP-, 1.2 WAR). Heading into 2049, scouts were starting to sour on Browning's upside, and the Popes would cut him loose at the end of April. Sacramento would get 3.2 WAR out of Browning after having given nothing up to acquire him.

Fabre would give Valencia a sub-replacement performance in 2045 and would be released before the end of the season. He would not make another BBA appearance.

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It was Calderón and Sato who would redeem this trade for the Stars. Calderón would hit the big league club in 2048, and in two seasons, the lefty reliever would put up a 75 FIP- and 2.6 WAR. The free swinging Sato would come on at the same time, playing in 40 games in '48, and his first full season in '49 contributing a 130 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR in those two seasons, and would make the 2049 All-Star team.

For Montreal, the near-term issue for them was managing out-year salary obligations. Zalapa made himself expendable in fairly short order. A September concussion in 2044 would shorten his season, and Montreal would finish a disappointing 80-82. In a full season of work in 2045, Zalapa would post a 2.7 WAR, which wasn't bad, but hardly justified the massive salary. Montreal would make the playoffs, but bow out after a meek 3-1 Geoghegan Round defeat at the hands of Brooklyn.

Zalapa got off to a slow start in 2046 and Montreal GM Herb DeSpain had seen enough, shipping him to Omaha along with a throw-in relief pitching prospect, Agniruha Gaekwad. In return, the Blazers would get four warm bodies and 2B prospect Gehrig Jelinowicz (55 potential). The 100% salary retention for Zalapa did raise some eyebrows. Said DeSpain at the time, “I would have given Zalapa to Omaha just for taking Gaekwad off our hands.”

Jelinowicz has rounded into a serviceable second baseman for the Blazers. He's currently in a platoon at the position, and has amassed a WAR of 3.3 in four seasons of play.

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The Cyclones would have Zalapa for eight weeks. They would flip him to Heartland rival Louisville in exchange for outfield prospect Eric Wagner (55 pot) in July of 2046. Zalapa would deliver 2.5 WAR to Louisville who was riding high that year, finishing the season with 107 wins, but they would not give him an extension. Wagner is ripening into an interesting corner outfield piece for Omaha, posting a 1.4 WAR in 2049, but showing promise of better seasons to come.

Zalapa would hit free agency for the first time in his career at the age of 31. He put up a total of 3.9 WAR in '46, playing for three different teams. It would not be until April of 2047 that Zalapa would sign on with a team. Mexico City would land him on a three-year, $37M deal that featured an opt-out after the first year. Zalapa's last 4 WAR season came in 2043, and it didn't look like he'd hit that mark again, but his 2047 season saw solid, if not great, production (3.5 WAR), despite a fractured wrist suffered in June, and he opted out of his contract with Mexico City.

He would hit free agency again, and would hold out until March of 2048 before signing on with Mexico City again, this time on a four-year, $60M deal, which also featured an opt-out after the first year. His 2048 season would be quite good. Zalapa would put up a 6.2 WAR that season, his best of the forties so far. He would yet again opt out of his contract with Mexico City and free agency again.

Zalapa wouldn't hold out for long this time, and would sign his third contract in as many years in January of 2049, a four-year, $68M deal with Mexico City. These two just can't seem to quit each other, but this contract features yet another player opt-out after the first year, and the last two years are team options. His 2049 was off his recent pace (2.8 WAR), so it seems Zalapa might come back in 2050 (his age 34 season) without going through another round of contract negotiations. The Aztecs have gotten 12.5 WAR out of Zalapa in three years.
Last edited by mragland on Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by mragland » Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:53 pm

:bump:

I thought I'd add a few remarks on the trade, which has turned into the Zalapa Saga.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by usnspecialist » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:01 pm

This is great
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by bschr682 » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:09 pm

That graphic is a great way to look at things.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by tylertoo » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:02 pm

Awesome, love these looks back.

WAR? What is it good for? Turns out it's good for years-later trade analyses.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by lordtoffee » Sat Feb 12, 2022 5:37 pm

Interesting. Reminds me of a couple of hockey videos doing this with the NHL.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by Joshua Biddle » Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:52 pm

Love the graphic! 😁
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by Rubaboo » Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:51 pm

The graphic is awesome. Love it.

Stop me if you've heard this before but Zalapa opted out of his deal and is a free agent again. Wonder if he'll have any suitors...
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by mragland » Mon Feb 14, 2022 4:20 pm

It's a crowded market at 2B. He may be disappointed.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by recte44 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:57 pm

10/10

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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by shoeless.db » Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:22 am

Collin Browning's ratings demise still hurts. I was ecstatic to claim him and loved him in my bullpen, but the OOTP story generator decided his career needed to be mashed -- 13-7-8 POT to 8-7-6 POT in less than a year. Yuck.
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Re: Ángel 'Poison' Zalapa Trade Tree

Post by DaveB » Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:18 pm

I love these kind of stories.
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