2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Analyze and breakdown all Brewster Baseball Association deals here
User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by RonCo » Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:36 am

San Fernando receives
SP Atmo Ananas AA

Des Moines recieves:
C Sloth Fratelli A
OF Topan Adjeng AAA
OF Sbdul-Muttalib Khair al-Din A


All right then. The Des Moines kernels and San Fernando bears got together and swapped some baseball players earlier today. It's a deal that will probably raise some eyebrows, because anytime one of the better pitching prospects in the league moves you can be sure people will have opinions. My opinion is that this deal is not yet really done.

Let's, however, start with the big gun Atmo Ananas.

Ananas Is a 22 year old who is listed as the number two overall pick in this year's draft. He has a big gun--shown by his 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in AA so far this year the kid throws 98 and has a cutter sharp enough to slice granite. There is a reason he was listed as one of the top prospects in the league—at the time of this writing number 2. Let me show my cards here and say that personally I do not see him as the number 2 prospect in the league, but to argue the point too much is to miss the overall situation. Annas is good. That said, he comes with a bit of a red flag in that he's fragile and even as he was being traded he was sitting on the trainer's table with shoulder inflammation.

I must admit that shoulder information worries me. In order to fully value AA pitchers, injury history needs to be accounted for but it's almost impossible two actually bake in. What are the chances that Ananas suffers a debilitating injury in the next two years? I don't know. He fractured an elbow in 2046 and was out for four months in this had a string of problems since that time. If that's a harbinger of future difficulty, one can argue that Des Moines has ducked a bullet.

Still, a healthy Ananas becomes an important piece in keeping San Fernando reliably toward the top of the Pacific division for years to come. I mean, yes, he may not be the second best prospect in the league right now but he's going to be very good, and if he does stay healthy could be expected to grow into one of the top five or ten pitchers in the league eventually. So the deal clearly makes sense for them in that light--and could easily be argued to be a total steal.

Where it doesn't make as much sense for the Bears is that San Fernando is competing this year, and stand a reasonable chance of winning it. The problem here is that when pitted against the heartland division as a whole, San Fernando probably has to actually win the division if they're going to proceed into the postseason, and Ananas is unlikely to help them this year. I would have expected them to deal their future chips for the chance to make hay today.

For what that's worth anyway.

The other side of the coin is what the Kernels take away. It is this part of the deal that I think is going to be hard to assess all into itself. I'm assuming at this point that this deal will eventually unleash another one, and only after that second deal happens well we actually see whether the Kernels improve themselves or not.

Let's start on the low end, however.

In Khair al-Din, they add a 19-year-old prospect who looks like he could be a top end defensive centerfielder with at least a little pop in his bat. To be direct the kernels really don't have that kind of player in their organization right now. So, while he's got a way to go, as a bit of a throw in, Khair al-Din has some interesting upsides.

I look for outfielder Topan Adjeng to be in the majors next year. San Fernando drafted him in the supplemental portion of the first round last year, and he projects in my book as a solid getting platoon outfielder. A look at the Des Moines roster suggests that they will be able to pair him with a right handed partner, so that part of the plan looks like it should come together just fine. It wouldn't surprise me, actually, to see him called up in September just for fun. Alternatively he may not debut until late April next year if the club tries to fiddle with the service time.

Regardless, Adjeng is not the kind of player one builds a deal for a top pitching prospect in order to acquire. Which is fine because that guy is Sloth Fratelli, who has great power and is arguably the best catching prospect on the board. He came to the bears as their first round draft picked last year, and while he has struggled as a 20 year old in A ball this year, scouts have not dimmed in their opinion of him. It's not hard to envision Fratelli arriving as early as 2049, but my guess is more like 2050.

The kicker here is that Des Moines has some talent in their organization at the catcher position, meaning that the acquisition of a top prospect here allows them to consider trading someone like switch hitting Dave Butler (who has debuted this year), and/or 19-year-old A-baller Shi-min Xi.

In other words, as with any deal that results in several young prospects trading hands, there is considerable uncertainty in what will end up happening. If Ananas turns into a true top five star, then San Fernando fans can sleep well. If he is more of a top 30 kind of guy, that still works out pretty well for them. The Horror Story then turns on the eventuality that the kid burns out his arm. I suppose that is one of those “well duh” kind of comments, but it’s a comment that needs to be remembered here. I should also note that the deal means San Fernando will need to address the catching role—which I assume they’ll be able to do.

Des Moines is (and seems to have always been) on a slippery slope with very little margin for error. They are on pace to win 70 games this year, a number that would be a high mark. In this deal they get two pretty sure contributors (Fratelli and Adjeng), and a guy who stands a 50/50 chance to be a useful contributor in center field—which is a place that’s hard to fill. It’s got to be hard to give up a top-tier pitching prospect, but I like what they got back.

Who won?

Well … if you know me, you know why I say—as I sit here today—that they both did.

It’s a deal that when time moves forward, however, could wind up blowing up in either of these two team’s faces. If I were handicapping it now, I’d set the following chances:

20% Annas becomes Top-5 pitcher, SFB wins big
20% Annas is good, DM gets expected results from all their guys, DM wins by a bit
20% Annas is good, DM gets expected value from Adjeng and Fratelli, Even?
20% Annas is good, DM gets expected result from Fratelli, SFB wins a little?
20% Annas becomes injury riddled, DM wins big

But what do I know?
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

usnspecialist
Ex-GM
Posts: 6652
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 776 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:57 am

Interesting write up, some further context on this from my side.

-i reached out to initiate discussions involving a fratelli for anenas framework before he was even signed, and while the shoulder inflammation gave me pause, it was not enough to sink the deal.

-the plan is for anenas to come into the big league staff as soon as he is clear of the DTD. Due to injuries, I have been running peter roop out there following a AAA call up, but he has been mediocre.

-pitching is deep right now, but I did not have that young TOR starter in my pipeline. That was something I needed to address and did so.

so.

-I still view the WC as a very viable option this season, as I currently sit 0.5 out of that and 2.5 from the division. That being said, I am very close to the cap and generally anti-rental, which limited my options in that regard. My preferred M.O has always been to deal for guys who are within a 12 month window of being ready possible (see Luis maldonado, feliciano Rafael and angel Garcia for examples of that).
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by RonCo » Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:00 pm

Fixed a few oddities that drifted into the text...I was dictating a lot of this, so if you see some weird word here or there I just missed it.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by RonCo » Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:06 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:57 am
-the plan is for anenas to come into the big league staff as soon as he is clear of the DTD. Due to injuries, I have been running peter roop out there following a AAA call up, but he has been mediocre.
With those splits, Roop is going to struggle at times, so I can see that. I'm not sure Ananas is the answer, but it can't hurt to try. He's 22 and has 112 innings on his arm. That said, he's had five outings with over 110 pitches, so the PAP equation is kind of loaded up against him right now. Take care of him. :)
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

usnspecialist
Ex-GM
Posts: 6652
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 776 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:17 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:06 pm
usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:57 am
-the plan is for anenas to come into the big league staff as soon as he is clear of the DTD. Due to injuries, I have been running peter roop out there following a AAA call up, but he has been mediocre.
With those splits, Roop is going to struggle at times, so I can see that. I'm not sure Ananas is the answer, but it can't hurt to try. He's 22 and has 112 innings on his arm. That said, he's had five outings with over 110 pitches, so the PAP equation is kind of loaded up against him right now. Take care of him. :)
His pitch count will be at 95 during the regular season and 100 in the playoffs (if we get there and I dont put him in a stopper type role).
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by RonCo » Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:48 pm

Personal preference, I suppose, but I would be very careful with him as a stopper.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
CTBrewCrew
GB: FL Heartland Division Director
Posts: 5111
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:20 am
Location: Milford, CT
Has thanked: 923 times
Been thanked: 1317 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:12 pm

Hey if it works for both clubs.....its a good deal... :)
Image

FuzzyRawley
Ex-GM
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:17 pm
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Has thanked: 73 times
Been thanked: 146 times

Re: 2047: Bears/Kernels Swap Prospects

Post by FuzzyRawley » Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:17 pm

Nice analysis. As someone pointed out on discord, pitching is deep in the BBA minors these days. I didn't get too many bites for my prospects to be honest. The Kernels are awful everywhere, but I guess they are most awful at the plate this season. With Clayton, Barber, bin Abbudin, Consolo and Camacho I feel like I've got pitching covered if no disasters happen. This gave me the will to move Ananas. I would have preferred to move Clayton or Barber in his place, but truth be told, they fit my timeline better since Ananas is ready to go now.

I like all three guys I got. Wasn't looking for a Catcher but I'll take him. I like Adjeng since he'll provide me depth in the next few seasons and with al Din I finally have a CF who won't get lost in the cornstalks.

I am definitely not done, I have a (*el Guapo voice*) plethora of catching prospects I'm looking to move but that's more of an offseason scenario.
:cool: They say it don't be like it is, but it do!

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Trade Analysis”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests