Who Won The Trade? Going Way Back By Request

[HerbD]

May 12, 2033

Havana(SFB) received:
SS Jared Gillstrom(28 YO)
OF Tony Charles(19)
2B Jose Rivera(19)

Montreal received:
P Manuel Pena(21)
P Aki Kondo(19)
SS Luis Gonzalez(23)
OF Robert Growan(26)
OF Juan Santana(19)

This trade rocked the Brewster when it came down the line as Gillstrom was arguably the best player in the majors when it happened. Montreal was coming off of six consecutive playoff appearances including two division titles and a team record setting 104 wins in 2030. He averaged over nine WAR per season during his six full seasons in Montreal including a triple crown in 2030 and three consecutive JL Batting titles from '30~'32. In Montreal he won Newcomer of the Year, three SS Awards, six consecutive all star teams, and six Pucketts. The two guys that came with him to Havana didn't amount to much but after the trade to Havana the Sugar Bears made the playoffs five consecutive times of their own ending a streak of 15 consecutive seasons watching the playoffs from home. In fact, in 2034, Gillstroms first full year in Havana he led them to the Landis Title. He followed that up in 2035 with his fourth Sawyer Silk.

With five guys coming back the other way you have to figure one or two will stick and make some noise. None of them made a lot of noise for Montreal but they all accumulated a total of 48 WAR while playing for the Blazers. That's not bad looking back. A little here(Santana 14.7 including leading the JL in steals once) and a little there(Gonzalez 11.6 WAR in five seasons). Kondo was the highest rated prospect at #13 just after the trade was made. He pitched a couple of seasons for the Blazers but won just 36 games and posted 10.9 WAR. The real win for the Blazers was flipping a couple of these guys for players still in the organization. Kondo was traded in 2037 for four players including Montreal's current star Lineu Aldo who is averaging over six WAR per season and just signed a six year extension to stay with the Blazers. In 2039 OF Peter Crocker came in a deal for Santana.

WINNER:
This one is tough to judge not being in the league when it went down. It appears to me that Montreal had a good thing going but just couldn't quite get over the hump with Gillstrom. Just a few seasons after dealing Gillstrom the Blazers were out of the playoffs and rebuilding. Gillstrom didn't play as well for Havana as he did for Montreal averaging right at six WAR for his five full seasons. BUT Havana got a ring and Montreal got another long playoff drought. For going for it and winning it all I name Havana the winner of this trade.

[bcslouck]

I just lost out on getting Gillstrom. Ended up pivoting to get Winson with basically the same offer.

[aaronweiner]

I'd say this one's close to a tie. You could actually make a salient argument that Montreal won the trade given the future returns and the fact that Gillstrom only had about three more really dominant years after that, though Gillstrom was making just $12 million at the time, so maybe not.

[niles08]

Nice write up, and I really enjoy reading these, however I disagree with this one.

I think Montreal won this trade big. I mean the trade looks like it should when you're trading "current value" for "potential value" but Gillstrom was the only guy of value that went to Havana. Granted, he had 34 WAR from the time he was traded until that original contract extension with Montreal would have expired. 34 WAR for $78M is a steal, obviously.

However, Montreal got a slew of guys...

During the same period as Gillstrom was racking up his final 34 WAR, the guys they got were

Gonzalez was worth 11 WAR
Pena was worth 5 WAR
Santana chipped in 14 WAR as well.

The biggest thing might be Kondo though, not because of the 11 WAR Kondo had in Montreal while he was pitching there but because without Kondo they wouldn't have had the chance to acquire Aldo.

Total WAR:

To Montreal: 41 when looking at Gonzalez, Pena, Santana, Kondo during the same time period as Gillstrom.
To Havana: 34 WAR(just Gillstrom)

But of course Kondo was flipped in 2037, for some turds along with Lineu Aldo...Aldo has become the cornerstone in Montreal. When I think of Montreal, I think less of Mons Raiders now and more of Aldo who has added 32 WAR in 6 seasons for Montreal.

Total WAR:

To Montreal: 71 WAR
To Havana: 34 WAR

[HerbD]

Nice write up, and I really enjoy reading these, however I disagree with this one.

I think Montreal won this trade big. I mean the trade looks like it should when you're trading "current value" for "potential value" but Gillstrom was the only guy of value that went to Havana. Granted, he had 34 WAR from the time he was traded until that original contract extension with Montreal would have expired. 34 WAR for $78M is a steal, obviously.

However, Montreal got a slew of guys...

During the same period as Gillstrom was racking up his final 34 WAR, the guys they got were

Gonzalez was worth 11 WAR
Pena was worth 5 WAR
Santana chipped in 14 WAR as well.

The biggest thing might be Kondo though, not because of the 11 WAR Kondo had in Montreal while he was pitching there but because without Kondo they wouldn't have had the chance to acquire Aldo.

Total WAR:

To Montreal: 41 when looking at Gonzalez, Pena, Santana, Kondo during the same time period as Gillstrom.
To Havana: 34 WAR(just Gillstrom)

But of course Kondo was flipped in 2037, for some turds along with Lineu Aldo...Aldo has become the cornerstone in Montreal. When I think of Montreal, I think less of Mons Raiders now and more of Aldo who has added 32 WAR in 6 seasons for Montreal.

Total WAR:

To Montreal: 71 WAR
To Havana: 34 WAR

I can agree with all of that EXCEPT Havana got the ring the next year and they didn't do anything before Gillstrom arrived. It has taken a decade for Montreal to recover. You can count WAR for WAR if you want, I'm counting rings!

[usnspecialist]

Being the guy who requested this I was very curious to see how someone who wasnt in the league at the time would see it.

I had a pretty good feeling about my squad going into 2033, but felt we needed some oomph, and frankly what was the hardest piece to include (and ultimately clinched the deal over an unnamed 2nd team that I found out later was charm city) was including kondo, which I REALLY didn't want to do.

I knew from the beginning that gillstrom was never going to play at SS long term for me, but with that contract and the fact that I felt he had a lot of productive years in front of him, it was worth the overpay (which pretty much everyone agrees it was at the time).

Even though I hadn't moved yet, I knew my new park would be death to all gap/no power guys (which I conveniently forgot to mention during any trade negotiations...) so Santana and Gonzalez had far less long term value for me than it seemed at the time. Gowron was a guy I took a flier on and quickly realized he wasn't good, and Pena was a solid arm but nothing special.

Gillstrom was the guy that announced to the league I was ready to be a serious contender, and getting luis maldonado the next year made me a legitimate title threat.

[Dington]

Love it! Keep 'em coming!

[recte44]

I just lost out on getting Gillstrom. Ended up pivoting to get Winson with basically the same offer.