Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

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Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by Ted » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:36 pm

So, my first thought when browsing this deal is, "Brett, pick a direction." We've seen a lot of good sized deal by the Charlotte GM in recent months. Some seem to be win now, others rebuilding. The math generally works out that you pay a bit more in talent to get the guys ready now. Conversely, when you move ready now guys for future talent, you tend to get more potential talent. When make both of these types of moves at the same time, you basically tread water. That's not an absolute, because if you "win" every deal, you'll gradually move forward. That's next to impossible though, and a tough strategy to take. It's also not a bad idea to tread water if your franchise is already at the top. Treading water in first place is fine. My general feeling, however, is that when you make both "improve my team for now" and "improve my team for later" moves in succession with a sub .500 franchise, you don't really get anywhere. I could be wrong. Let's take a look at the pieces in this one and see what we have.


Charlotte Receives:
-- SS Robert Menzies (BBA)
-- DH Bartolo Ortíz (BBA)
-- SP Francisco Franco (BBA)


Portland Receives:
-- 1B Andrew Gallagher (BBA)
-- RF Bobby Horne (BBA)
-- SS Héctor Vázquez (BBA)
-- CF Marcos Gonzáles (BBA)
-- P Juan Álvarez (BBA)
-- P Rudy Fraser (A)
-- LF Hasheem Makin (R)
-- RF Jiao-long Ma (R)
-- P Raj Mahadevan (R)
-- P Félix Vidaca (R)

Clearly the big get is Robert Menzies. The 23 year old left handed hitting star is one of the bright young talents in the league. He's making 5 mil with two arb years left. He can play both CF and SS at an elite level. However, don't let that fool you into thinking he significantly more value than a guy who could play just SS at an elite level. You can only play one position. He does give you some flexibility, but there aren't many situations where you'd be able to take much advantage of it. Still, that caveat aside, given the dearth of good hitting SS, to have one who can both hit and doo both at a level that is tops at their position is tremendous. Charlotte should lock him up to a year deal as soon as possible, and use whatever cap machinations they have to balloon one year and keep the rest of the AAV down.

Francisco Franco is a nice looking pitcher. He's 23, and will hit arbitration for the first time next year. He seems to have all the makings of a number two starter. Having no real injury history and being rated as durable is a great bonus. This guy looks like a cornerstone to a pitching staff.

Bartolo Ortiz, at this point in his career is just an okay DH option. He's basically someone you're just okay with plugging in the DH spot, but he'll make you want an upgrade. He has no business hitting LHP, and given that he's making 9.5 mil for each of the next two seasons, he's not the most cap efficient player.

So these are three huge pieces. Charlotte gets a LOT better right now by adding them. The drawback is that Franco is now the best pitcher on the roster, and Menzies is the best position player. Ortiz, pedestrian as he is, might be the 2nd or third best hitter. The Cougars won 71 games last season. Even with these adds, there are still holes in the lineup. The rotation seems to be rounding in the shape, but could use another arm before anyone would call it good. Right now, it looks average to above average. The bad news is that these adds might not be enough to propel Charlotte into contention. The good news is that Menizes and Franco are young enough to contribute for years. The Cougars will need to keep adding to take advantage of having them. That improvement seems like it will largely have to come from future draft pick trades (Charlotte might not be able to wait for players drafted this year to develop) or free agency, as this move wiped out most of their minors.

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On the other side of things, Chris Wilson was looking at a team that was up against the cap, with a young wave of players like Franco and Menzies in place that won 64 games last year. He seems to have made the decision to rebuild on his rebuild (if you can say an expansion team is rebuilding). I really like this idea. It takes guts to look at your build and say "Okay, not good enough. Let's cycle it one more time." As much as it hurts, I think that's the right idea for Portland. And they got a LOT here.

Let's quickly look at the stablished players. Bobby Horne and Marcos Gonzales are similar in that they are corner outfielders who can his LHP quite well and stink against right handed pitching. They are big lugers, but have limited roles. A rebuilding team could play them full time, but it will hurt their value. Along with SS Hector Vasquez, these are replaceable players. There are a lot of them in the league. Btu again, Wilson will need warm bodies and this is one way to get them rather painlessly.

Okay, so next up is the kids. SP Mahadevan and OF Ma have been discussed ad nauseum as they have been traded multiple times this year. Both have nice ratings frameworks, both are a tad behind for their age. Ma in particular needs to start making some ground on his avk. 5 is a borderline AVK in this league, and he needs to get all of it or risk being too strikeout prone to play. While we're on the topic 18 year old OF Hasheem Makin has the same problem. Being right handed with 6 contact, he'll never hit for much average. His eye and power will have to carry him, and they are special enough that they can, but he too needs to get all of that AVK.

Felix Vidaca is the real prize. He has front of the rotation potential. A year ago this guy was a 40 rated prospect. Now he looks like a number 2, and might go full Bill Constable. He's 19 though, and needs to make some moves on his control soon. Still ,Wilson can't risk overworking this kid. Vidaca absolutely has to work out or this trade could end up looking like a big loss for the Lumberjacks.

There are still some players to talk about, amazingly. They are all in the same group of nearly developed or ready now. Andrew Gallagher is a 23 year old right handed DH. He has tantalizing power and what seems like it should be good enough contact and eye to be a nice hitter. He been underwhelming so far. His potential of 70 makes one hope he has some growth left within his apparently near potential ratings. i.e. One would hope he is a low 8 and will get to high 8. If he's a 7 contact, 6 avk hitter against righties, he's going to struggle. Still, I think it's likely he has some growth left. The game is calling him a 70 pot for some reason, and it's not his defense or speed. An 8/9/10/6/6 DH shouldn't get a 70 POT. Bartolo Ortiz is 8/9/9/7/7 and is 55. This will be a big year for Gallagher in showing us what he is.

Wilson also picked up a couple pitchers in the category of ready to go or close. Rudy Foster looks like a serviceable reliever. At 22, his slider needs to get better in a hurry, and gives him a big split, but he still looks acceptable-ish against LHP. Juan Alvarez has #4 starter written all over him. He's okay and could be moved in a later deal if he starts to play to his potential.

So Portland got a lot. Is it enough for a developed, cheap number 2 starter and a superstar young shortstop? I actually kind of think it isn't. All of the raw prospects have concerns. Gallagher too is a bit of a question mark. The last two pitchers I just mentioned and the 3 hitters first discussed really don't add much value to a rebuilding team other than being placeholders. But some could be moved for more value. Were I Wilson, I would have preferred to get prospects other than COF and DH for a top SS and SP. On the other hand, sometimes the perfect deal isn't out there. Wilson is making the right decision I think to double down and rebuild. Menzies and Franco lose value every year. So waiting for the perfect deal could backfire.

This is one of those deals that we'll need to look back at in five or six years to truly evaluate. I think Charlotte got a great return for clearing out a most of their best prospects, but I question the timing. I think Portland made the right decision, but I'd hope for a slightly better return. Development and other moves by both of these GMs will determine whether this deal was good. They could both win in the end, or neither could. fun deal guys, and it will be fun to watch this play out.
Last edited by Ted on Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by 7teen » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:03 pm

Very good write up, Ted

This deal took 2-3 days to work out kinks. I agree with a lot of the things you said about the specs I got back.

In the end, I told myself “In Madison, I’d have ridden out what I have, finished no better than a .500 season, watched these guys leave and be stuck for a decade”. I’m trying to push aside my old ways with Madison and think differently with Portland. That includes trading valuable, young players with team controlled contracts if I have to in order to try and build a team down the road with some sustainability. We’ll see if I have the ability to do that.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by jleddy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:05 pm

Pour yourself a few, you've earned it...excellent analysis.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by Ted » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:05 pm

7teen wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:03 pm
Very good write up, Ted

This deal took 2-3 days to work out kinks. I agree with a lot of the things you said about the specs I got back.

In the end, I told myself “In Madison, I’d have ridden out what I have, finished no better than a .500 season, watched these guys leave and be stuck for a decade”. I’m trying to push aside my old ways with Madison and think differently with Portland. That includes trading valuable, young players with team controlled contracts if I have to in order to try and build a team down the road with some sustainability. We’ll see if I have the ability to do that.
I like it man. I think you are absolutely right that riding out this group would have had you stuck at .500.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by GoldenOne » Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:37 pm

Nice write up Ted.

Charlotte had a bad start last season in trying to get better offense while giving up some on defense. It didnt work. After finally getting rid of those guys through trades and straight-out releasing them, we finally started to get on base more often and score more runs than we had been. We actually managed to go 15-11 in September. That's not normal for Charlotte.

This move frees up some logjams, in spots where we werent necessarily happy with the options anyway, while creating a much more flexible team. Defensively we should be back towards the top on Ron's charts this season. Pitching is as strong and flexible as it has been since Charlotte came into existence.

And while the Atlantic has been pretty strong for a while, its also been pretty quiet this offseason too. Only Charm City currently has an offseason WAR projection in the plus, at 0.4. This move alone created a swing of +8.1 WAR for Charlotte compared to last year.

I'm always making moves with the eye on getting better now. Until that point is untenable, but then I only hopefully only push it back a season or two, waiting for the right time to strike. I thought now was as good a time as any.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Charlotte/Portland Monster Madness

Post by crobillard » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:34 am

You know who lost in this deal? Edmonton. Much crying.

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