Trade Analysis: The Zalapa Deal

[Ted]

Valencia receives:
SP Colin Browning(AAA)
SS Yodo Sato(INT)
C Eric Fabre(Injured List)
RP Pedro Calderon(R)

Montreal receives:
2B/SS Angel Zalapa(BBA)


Alright! It's finally happening! Valencia has traded a Star who was toiling away in futility in a much needed move towards a rebuild. Angel Zalapa is now a Montreal Blazer. Let's take a look at the player Montreal fans are certainly excited to get. Zalapa is 28, and has been a fairly consistent 4 win player who fields a nice second base and a somewhat subpar shortstop. Zalapa is such a talented hitter that currently you can probably tolerate his subpar shortstop defense. If his range slides any further, however, he can't play short. That might become a problem at his age. Age is the real rub on Zalapa. At 28, he hasn't had any obvious ratings slide. Maybe that's a portent of a solid next few years. Or maybe he'll drop a point of range and contact and power tomorrow. You never know. So there's some risk here, because while his bat is a big time plus at either second or short, Montreal has a tremendous second base bat already in Aldo. Aldo himself isn't great at second and could slide over to first, but then they have a 1st baseman already, and such .... Still there are workable solutions here.

The thing that makes Zalapa special of course, is not his glove, but his bat. Zalapa is a career .901 OPS, 135 wRC+ player. He absolutely destroys left handed pitching to the tune of a 1.062 OPS, 175 wRC+. That, of course, means that his numbers against right handed pitchers aren't quite as dominant. Still, an .840 OPS and 120wRC+ against RHP is quite desirable in a middle infield bat.

When you add it all together, the Blazers picked up a 4 to 5 win player at short or second. They will be paying him just under 27 million for his age 28, 29, and 30 years, with an option for the same price for his age 31 year (2047). This is all in the danger zone for age based erosion of skills, but it's not too terrible. It's also a bit pricey for a 4 to 5 win guy, but again, not so terrible bad. Zalapa also might have some 5-6 win seasons left in him. You never really can tell how much being in a losing environment hurts a guy. Sometimes the change of scenery can really light a fire under a player.

So this gives Montreal a very nice middle of the order bat at a traditionally weak hitting position for at least a couple years. The real issue is what the size and length of the contract does to Montreal's cap situation. Montreal is currently projected to be 3-5 mil over the cap next year and 13-16 mil over the cap the following year. They do have some big, dead money deals they could get off the books, but will likely have to pay in prospects to do so, and that has to be factored into the value a trade adds. The other problem being over the caps in future years costs is the inability to negotiate with your own arbitration eligible and pending FA players. Herb DeSpain has his work cut out for him in that regard, and if not handled properly, this trade has the potential to cripple his franchise.

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Okay, enough about Montreal. Let's look at what Valencia picked up. Colin Browning is a 25 year old right handed late bloomer, who has the makings of becoming a nice mid rotation starter or potentially one of these 150, mid 2 era stoppers. He's a nice piece, with a clean injury history.

Yodo "Fungo" Sato has three names that I like saying, and that alone makes him a great throw in lottery ticket. In reality, he is a 16 year old kid who projects potentially elite bat to ball skills with super gap power. He may or may not stick at second. He's the kind of kid you can dream on, but will likely not make it. That makes him the perfect addition to a package like this.

Pedro Calderon is a 19 year old, developing lefty reliever. He has some motion issues, but his reverse split may help with that. Really, he looks more like a AAAA guy, but he's young enough there's a chance he improves.

Eric Fabre is salary coming the other way in a dump fashion.

So, the overall package Valencia got for their late prime, weak fielding, monster bat, monster contract star is a young/cheap mid-rotation starter/stopper, a pie in the sky lottery ticket 2B, a more modest lottery ticket LHP, and two years of deal 10 mil AAA/backup catcher.


That's pretty good. This is a nice deal. Zalapa is very good, but he has risks. Valencia got a good looking young piece, plus some lotto tickets and didn't have to retain any salary. Not bad for a team that has to sell. Just reverse that to talk about Montreal, who is up and coming.

Good deal, guys. Fun to think about, and best of luck to both of you.

[shoeless.db]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

[aaronweiner]

It's one of the rare deals that might benefit both people, but I think it gives Montreal too many bad contracts. He'll be able to buy out Drew and O'Brien, but he'll still have to figure out how to manage 2046.

[Ted]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

[HerbD]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

Good analysis Ted...we hope to make a(not so likely run) for the last wildcard this year but the deal was made more with next year in mind.

We are counting on Raider opting out of his contract which will go a long way in fixing the financial problem.

[HerbD]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

Also...we are the Montreal Blazers...not the Dragons!!

Small detail, I know!

[Ted]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

Also...we are the Montreal Blazers...not the Dragons!!

Small detail, I know!

Fuck. I can't keep this straight. Sorry. There as a Montreal Blazers in the the league i was in for 20 seasons. I think this was Dragons when i got here, so I kept screwing it up. And now it's Blazers, and I'm still screwing it up. Sorry, man. I'll fix it.

[aaronweiner]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

Good analysis Ted...we hope to make a(not so likely run) for the last wildcard this year but the deal was made more with next year in mind.

We are counting on Raider opting out of his contract which will go a long way in fixing the financial problem.

I'm going to be kind and say that seems unlikely unless he has a huge 2045.

[aaronweiner]

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

Also...we are the Montreal Blazers...not the Dragons!!

Small detail, I know!

Fuck. I can't keep this straight. Sorry. There as a Montreal Blazers in the the league i was in for 20 seasons. I think this was Dragons when i got here, so I kept screwing it up. And now it's Blazers, and I'm still screwing it up. Sorry, man. I'll fix it.

Can't imagine looking at their logo how you came up with Dragons. /s

It's always been Blazers though that I can remember.

[Ted]

Also...we are the Montreal Blazers...not the Dragons!!

Small detail, I know!

Fuck. I can't keep this straight. Sorry. There as a Montreal Blazers in the the league i was in for 20 seasons. I think this was Dragons when i got here, so I kept screwing it up. And now it's Blazers, and I'm still screwing it up. Sorry, man. I'll fix it.

Can't imagine looking at their logo how you came up with Dragons. /s

It's always been Blazers though that I can remember.

I swear there was a team I was trying to call the Blazers that was the Dragons. Oh well. Old age has done me in.

[GoldenOne]

We are counting on Raider opting out of his contract which will go a long way in fixing the financial problem.

Stranger things can happen but I always tend to take a look at these Opt Outs as a What-Would-I-Do situation. $40M when you are 36 at the end of the season...or take a shot now for that one more contract that gets you a few more years and more $$.

I'd give it a 50-50 shot he opts out. Knowing what we know in how FA has gone the last few seasons, he's starting to lose it a little and will most likely find himself losing a lot of money or waiting for the phone to ring after ST starts.

[GoldenOne]

This is too positive, which makes me curious if this is sober Ted, two drink Ted, or open bar Ted.

I honestly felt bad about ripping people too much recently. So I approached this one trying to look at it more positively, then realized I didn't have to. It's legitimately good deal, with Aaron's and my caveat that Montreal has to fix its finances in a hurry.

I'm not convinced this is the real Ted.

[Dington]

Didn't like the trade for Montreal. I didn't think they should be in buy mode. That being said, the talent they gave away wasn't over-the-top and they should be able to replenish those farm pieces over the next couple years.

[HerbD]

Didn't like the trade for Montreal. I didn't think they should be in buy mode. That being said, the talent they gave away wasn't over-the-top and they should be able to replenish those farm pieces over the next couple years.

If I had more than a couple of guys hitting even close to expectation then I would not have had to do this deal.

[RonCo]

Will have a conversation on this in the next BBA today...which might be out later tonight, or very early tomorrow at latest.

[HerbD]

well....that didn't work out the way I'd hoped

[RonCo]

He'll be fine next year.

[HerbD]

stop trying to cheer me up Ron

[shoeless.db]

stop trying to cheer me up Ron

You will be cheered, and you will like it!