Trade Analysis: Meh
Posted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:24 pm
Brett Golden has been busy with his Charlotte Cougars. Let's tell him what he did wrong!
Number Uno!
Charlotte Receives:
2B Eddy van Wingerden, Short Season A
Chicago Receives:
CF Niccolo Machiavelli, Charlotte DFA/waivers
Chicago is trying to get into the playoffs and was getting replacement level production out of center field. That stinks. So they got Machiavelli, who I just need to be a better player in a more devious fashion. Maybe his true deception was convincing anyone that he should get 6.5 million a year. Poor Niccolo is basically a 1-1.5 win player these days, and will likely be overpaid for two more seasons. However, centerfield is never easy to fill, and the Black Sox had to do something. If the salary doesn't hurt them down the road, this is a fine enough deal, as they didn't give up much.
Eddy van Wingerden is an odd prospect. The game somehow thinks he is 45 potential, despite not having a defensive position other than first and not having any power. He seems a classic case of OOTP doing a bunch of math to come up with a potential rating, but not being sophisticated enough to realize that strengths don't combine in any useful way. He's also 21 and developed at a SA/A level, so there's that.
I don't know how to feel about this. Golden clearly wanted out of Machiavelli's deal, which is a reasonable want. They also weren't going to get much for him, so this is probably fine. It's just nice to not owe money to a guy you don't need who isn't that good anyway.
Nummer Zwei!
Charlotte Receives:
-- 3B Ignacio Venegas (BBA/IL)
Brooklyn Receives:
-- 3B Ira Sánchez (BBA/DFA)
Okay, so the most remarkable part of this deal is that Ira Sanchez has had an 8 year BBA career. His career WAR is 3.7. For those of you mathing at home, that's a robust 0.4625 WAR per year. Now, he's largely been used as the short side of a platoon, so that's almost acceptable. What's not is that he was given a 4 mil per year deal prior to this season for two years with a third year at 6 mil. At first I was please to see Brett fix that mistake. In part time duty this year, Sanchez had a blistering 68 wRC+ prior to being traded.
Then I saw that Charlotte retained 70% salary. Man I hope they got something. Woof. Ignacio Venegas. He of the career 77 wRC+. Venegas has no business facing right handed pitching. But at least he's cheap. Sort of. He'll arb in the 1.5 mil range, which isn't bad for a backup/short side platoon with a super glove. And frankly, a rebuilding team can do worse than sticking him in as a starter at short and just dealing with the crud bat. He's a backup on a contender, but a useful enough player.
Here's the problem though, he's really being paid like 3.5 or 4 million next year considering the retained Sanchez money, and that will only go up. So what really happened is that Charlotte swap out a terrible signing to overpay another backup/platoon type player. I tend to think Venegas is slightly better than Sanchez, given his versatility. So not awful.
On the other hand, I have no idea why Brooklyn would pick up Sanchez, even with Charlotte eating most of his deal. Venegas is still cheaper this year and next, and again, more versatile. Sanchez is less terrible against RHP, but he's still quite bad. If you want a 3B upgrade, I think you could do better than Sanchez. Or maybe not. And they didn't give up much.
So far, we're absolutely nocking it out of the park with these moves.
Numero Trois
Charlotte receives:
OF Ramon Pagan BBA
$10 million cash money
Sacramento receives:
OF Fernando Reyes BBA
OF Vinnie Coalman BBA
Okay! Here we go! Some real players that MATTER! Ramon Pagan was off to a poop start in Sacramento, and Shoeless the Patient is not what they call him. Fernando Reyes also is a new free agent signing, and to understand this deal, you have to know the contracts invloved.
Pagan - 23, 23, 11, 11, opt out, 11 (T0), 11(T0), starts age 27, ends 32
Reyes - 7, 7, 6.5, opt out, 7.5, 9(T0), 11(T0), starts age 27, ends 32
Ratings: ovr, vsr, vsl, def, spd/stl
Pagan 7/6/8/6/7, same, same, 8LF/8RF, 8/10
Reyes 7/6/7/5/6, 8/7/8/6/6, 4/4/5/4/5, 7LF, 2/1
Batting Performance 2044||Career: tripleslash, wRC+
Pagan .218/.306/.439 , 101 || .268/.334/.522 118
Reyes .284/.332/.465, 110 || .279/.325/.783, 106
Okay, so there's some baseline data. Same age. Pagan is historically a better batter. He's a better defender, and has better wheels. However, one could argue he is no longer a better hitter than Reyes, at least against right handed pitching. So the question is, can you find a platoon partner for Reyes for less than difference in contracts that is 7/6/8/6/7 ish versus left handed pitching? I would argue yes. I would also argue that the Reyes deal is less risky. Both of these players are youngish for FA signings, but the lump zone starts at age 27/28 for the early guys. Pagan IS a better player than Reyes, but is he some 35-40 million better? I'm not sure. Vinnie Coalman is an okay backup, but I don't care about him much.
I like this deal for a rebuilding team like Sacramento. Similar production, cheaper player. Makes sense. For Charlotte, I'm not as sure. The Cougars aren't going anywhere this year or probably next. Why add the money now? Even is you get slightly better production? Does 2 more wins matter this year or next year for Charlotte? And I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with any prediction on either of these guys more than two years down the road. There's nothing specific about either one that makes me expect lumping, but late 20's and early 30's are when it starts to go.
Nummer Fire
Charlotte receives:
2B Nolan Sterling (AA)
Edmonton receives:
RP Zhi-xin Chien
Whelp, I think I've learned my lesson. Just because a team makes a lot of trades, it probably doesn't mean I should spotlight that team. Oh well, last one. Chien was picked up from Rockville earlier. Decent enough relief arm on an expiring deal. Wow has he been bad as a starter. 23.82 ERA in 5.2 innings over 3 games. That's ... unfortunate. As a reliever though he has 30 innings of 3.6 ERA ball. Those are both really small sample sizes, but Chien's recent history backs up those performances. I don't like eating money on multi year deals, but I wonder if Charlotte had advertised that ERA and offered to eat this years money, they could have maybe gotten more than Sterling.
Sterling is a 20 year old RHB in AA who looks like a guy with a AAA ceiling. He's a 2B/3B due to his range not being enough for short. He's also not suited to face BBA level right handed pitching, and maybe not even LHP. In my mind, this really looks like giving Chien away for basically free. It's also hard to find a real market for a guy like Chien though, so I get it.
That's that. Four moves. I don't really like any of them for Charlotte. I also don't really hate any of them. Just kinda meh everywhere. I'm not even gonna proofread this one. I got so bored writing it. Hooray for Boobies is a fun album. Bloodhound gang is seriously underrated due to the absurdity of their subject matter.
Number Uno!
Charlotte Receives:
2B Eddy van Wingerden, Short Season A
Chicago Receives:
CF Niccolo Machiavelli, Charlotte DFA/waivers
Chicago is trying to get into the playoffs and was getting replacement level production out of center field. That stinks. So they got Machiavelli, who I just need to be a better player in a more devious fashion. Maybe his true deception was convincing anyone that he should get 6.5 million a year. Poor Niccolo is basically a 1-1.5 win player these days, and will likely be overpaid for two more seasons. However, centerfield is never easy to fill, and the Black Sox had to do something. If the salary doesn't hurt them down the road, this is a fine enough deal, as they didn't give up much.
Eddy van Wingerden is an odd prospect. The game somehow thinks he is 45 potential, despite not having a defensive position other than first and not having any power. He seems a classic case of OOTP doing a bunch of math to come up with a potential rating, but not being sophisticated enough to realize that strengths don't combine in any useful way. He's also 21 and developed at a SA/A level, so there's that.
I don't know how to feel about this. Golden clearly wanted out of Machiavelli's deal, which is a reasonable want. They also weren't going to get much for him, so this is probably fine. It's just nice to not owe money to a guy you don't need who isn't that good anyway.
Nummer Zwei!
Charlotte Receives:
-- 3B Ignacio Venegas (BBA/IL)
Brooklyn Receives:
-- 3B Ira Sánchez (BBA/DFA)
Okay, so the most remarkable part of this deal is that Ira Sanchez has had an 8 year BBA career. His career WAR is 3.7. For those of you mathing at home, that's a robust 0.4625 WAR per year. Now, he's largely been used as the short side of a platoon, so that's almost acceptable. What's not is that he was given a 4 mil per year deal prior to this season for two years with a third year at 6 mil. At first I was please to see Brett fix that mistake. In part time duty this year, Sanchez had a blistering 68 wRC+ prior to being traded.
Then I saw that Charlotte retained 70% salary. Man I hope they got something. Woof. Ignacio Venegas. He of the career 77 wRC+. Venegas has no business facing right handed pitching. But at least he's cheap. Sort of. He'll arb in the 1.5 mil range, which isn't bad for a backup/short side platoon with a super glove. And frankly, a rebuilding team can do worse than sticking him in as a starter at short and just dealing with the crud bat. He's a backup on a contender, but a useful enough player.
Here's the problem though, he's really being paid like 3.5 or 4 million next year considering the retained Sanchez money, and that will only go up. So what really happened is that Charlotte swap out a terrible signing to overpay another backup/platoon type player. I tend to think Venegas is slightly better than Sanchez, given his versatility. So not awful.
On the other hand, I have no idea why Brooklyn would pick up Sanchez, even with Charlotte eating most of his deal. Venegas is still cheaper this year and next, and again, more versatile. Sanchez is less terrible against RHP, but he's still quite bad. If you want a 3B upgrade, I think you could do better than Sanchez. Or maybe not. And they didn't give up much.
So far, we're absolutely nocking it out of the park with these moves.
Numero Trois
Charlotte receives:
OF Ramon Pagan BBA
$10 million cash money
Sacramento receives:
OF Fernando Reyes BBA
OF Vinnie Coalman BBA
Okay! Here we go! Some real players that MATTER! Ramon Pagan was off to a poop start in Sacramento, and Shoeless the Patient is not what they call him. Fernando Reyes also is a new free agent signing, and to understand this deal, you have to know the contracts invloved.
Pagan - 23, 23, 11, 11, opt out, 11 (T0), 11(T0), starts age 27, ends 32
Reyes - 7, 7, 6.5, opt out, 7.5, 9(T0), 11(T0), starts age 27, ends 32
Ratings: ovr, vsr, vsl, def, spd/stl
Pagan 7/6/8/6/7, same, same, 8LF/8RF, 8/10
Reyes 7/6/7/5/6, 8/7/8/6/6, 4/4/5/4/5, 7LF, 2/1
Batting Performance 2044||Career: tripleslash, wRC+
Pagan .218/.306/.439 , 101 || .268/.334/.522 118
Reyes .284/.332/.465, 110 || .279/.325/.783, 106
Okay, so there's some baseline data. Same age. Pagan is historically a better batter. He's a better defender, and has better wheels. However, one could argue he is no longer a better hitter than Reyes, at least against right handed pitching. So the question is, can you find a platoon partner for Reyes for less than difference in contracts that is 7/6/8/6/7 ish versus left handed pitching? I would argue yes. I would also argue that the Reyes deal is less risky. Both of these players are youngish for FA signings, but the lump zone starts at age 27/28 for the early guys. Pagan IS a better player than Reyes, but is he some 35-40 million better? I'm not sure. Vinnie Coalman is an okay backup, but I don't care about him much.
I like this deal for a rebuilding team like Sacramento. Similar production, cheaper player. Makes sense. For Charlotte, I'm not as sure. The Cougars aren't going anywhere this year or probably next. Why add the money now? Even is you get slightly better production? Does 2 more wins matter this year or next year for Charlotte? And I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with any prediction on either of these guys more than two years down the road. There's nothing specific about either one that makes me expect lumping, but late 20's and early 30's are when it starts to go.
Nummer Fire
Charlotte receives:
2B Nolan Sterling (AA)
Edmonton receives:
RP Zhi-xin Chien
Whelp, I think I've learned my lesson. Just because a team makes a lot of trades, it probably doesn't mean I should spotlight that team. Oh well, last one. Chien was picked up from Rockville earlier. Decent enough relief arm on an expiring deal. Wow has he been bad as a starter. 23.82 ERA in 5.2 innings over 3 games. That's ... unfortunate. As a reliever though he has 30 innings of 3.6 ERA ball. Those are both really small sample sizes, but Chien's recent history backs up those performances. I don't like eating money on multi year deals, but I wonder if Charlotte had advertised that ERA and offered to eat this years money, they could have maybe gotten more than Sterling.
Sterling is a 20 year old RHB in AA who looks like a guy with a AAA ceiling. He's a 2B/3B due to his range not being enough for short. He's also not suited to face BBA level right handed pitching, and maybe not even LHP. In my mind, this really looks like giving Chien away for basically free. It's also hard to find a real market for a guy like Chien though, so I get it.
That's that. Four moves. I don't really like any of them for Charlotte. I also don't really hate any of them. Just kinda meh everywhere. I'm not even gonna proofread this one. I got so bored writing it. Hooray for Boobies is a fun album. Bloodhound gang is seriously underrated due to the absurdity of their subject matter.