Trade Analysis: Portland and Calgary Exchange Left Fielders
Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:02 pm
It has been a pretty active trade market in the early going of the BBA season. We saw a major trade between Omaha and Louisville, but there was another trade that was made so far that really intrigues me. The Portland Lumberjacks and the Calgary Pioneers have been teams that have had contrasting fortunes since the current setup of the BBA came into play a few years ago. The Lumberjacks had the typical struggles that you expect from expansion teams, though Lumberjacks GM Chris Wilson has built up a very interesting crop of youngsters and has built a top 10 farm system in the BBA. Calgary had been a competitive team and have suddenly slipped from a playoff regular to a team that has been struggling. In fairness to the Pioneers, I think it's a case of other Frontier teams getting better, and GM Kevin Dickson certainly has the skill and experience to make the changes he feels is right. Let's talk about the trade and see what this means.
Trade Details:
Calgary Gets:
LF Jorge Lopez
P Greg Brown
Portland Gets:
LF Werner McConnell Jr.
Portland Analysis
The Lumberjacks are contending this year for the first time in their history, and they have the farm system to really compete in the Pacific and for the Wild Card. The key to success for the Lumberjacks has been some good pitching by the starters. What hasn't helped them out has been their hitting. It has been a struggle, and Wilson clearly decided to make a move to upgrade the power hitting in particular. Portland is near the bottom of the Frick in a lot of offensive categories, and especially power. McConnell Jr. is a player that has demonstrated power in the past, and was a key part of the success that the Pioneers have had. His skills in particular are hitting home runs, and he is a proven run producer that can fit well in the middle of the lineup. What makes this trade risky on the Portland end is that McConnell has suddenly seen a drop in power over the past couple of years. It's not like there was a major injury on his end, and there was no indications that he was due for regression after hitting for 30 plus homers in his first 3 years. This leads me to believe that Johnson pitching either figured him out, or there must have been a flaw in his swing that needs to be corrected. I think that McConnell Jr. can provide power to the Portland lineup, especially if a change of scenery is the problem.
Calgary Analysis
The key to this trade for the Pioneers in my view is going to be Lopez. Lopez is a different type of player than McConnell Jr., and can offer value to a team. Lopez is a player who has had a knack for getting on base, with decent power since being handed his BBA debut in 2041. He is also a Gold Glover defensively, and was a bright light for Portland while they continued to build. At only 22, he has time to improve provided that Calgary keep giving him playing time. The concern is that can he hit a little more consistently and find a tad more power. In an ideal world, if he can hit .280 with 15 home runs and a .380 OBP, then he will be a shrewd trade by Calgary. It's a good return and someone who is a little less maddeningly inconsistent than McConnell Jr.
Greg Brown is going to be an interesting case. He was a recent 1st round pick by the Lumberjacks, and has shown some encouraging signs at 20. What makes him look good is that he has developed into more of a reliever than a starter in the minor leagues. His pitches have shown some potential and could have multiple out pitches. It is going to be too early to tell with such a young prospect, and I'd imagine that if worse comes to worse he could be a trade piece in another deal. It's too soon to make a decision on what Brown is going to turn out into, though I think he has a chance in the bigs if he stays the course.
What This Means For The Rest of the BBA
This trade does make Portland better and addresses an area of need. I think that the Lumberjacks would probably consider looking at another trade should the need arise to further improve their offense, but this gives them a good idea about what the market could be. But Portland is going to probably be at the start of their window, so there is no pressure to make a move unless the Bears or Mad Popes decide to do something big. For the Pioneers, I don't get the sense that they are rebuilding, but rather just getting good value for a player in McConnell Jr. that really was not playing up to his standard. This trade seems like a win for both sides, and honestly makes both teams better. Plus, I love it when teams are aggressive early in the season before the trade market heats up later in the summer.
Trade Details:
Calgary Gets:
LF Jorge Lopez
P Greg Brown
Portland Gets:
LF Werner McConnell Jr.
Portland Analysis
The Lumberjacks are contending this year for the first time in their history, and they have the farm system to really compete in the Pacific and for the Wild Card. The key to success for the Lumberjacks has been some good pitching by the starters. What hasn't helped them out has been their hitting. It has been a struggle, and Wilson clearly decided to make a move to upgrade the power hitting in particular. Portland is near the bottom of the Frick in a lot of offensive categories, and especially power. McConnell Jr. is a player that has demonstrated power in the past, and was a key part of the success that the Pioneers have had. His skills in particular are hitting home runs, and he is a proven run producer that can fit well in the middle of the lineup. What makes this trade risky on the Portland end is that McConnell has suddenly seen a drop in power over the past couple of years. It's not like there was a major injury on his end, and there was no indications that he was due for regression after hitting for 30 plus homers in his first 3 years. This leads me to believe that Johnson pitching either figured him out, or there must have been a flaw in his swing that needs to be corrected. I think that McConnell Jr. can provide power to the Portland lineup, especially if a change of scenery is the problem.
Calgary Analysis
The key to this trade for the Pioneers in my view is going to be Lopez. Lopez is a different type of player than McConnell Jr., and can offer value to a team. Lopez is a player who has had a knack for getting on base, with decent power since being handed his BBA debut in 2041. He is also a Gold Glover defensively, and was a bright light for Portland while they continued to build. At only 22, he has time to improve provided that Calgary keep giving him playing time. The concern is that can he hit a little more consistently and find a tad more power. In an ideal world, if he can hit .280 with 15 home runs and a .380 OBP, then he will be a shrewd trade by Calgary. It's a good return and someone who is a little less maddeningly inconsistent than McConnell Jr.
Greg Brown is going to be an interesting case. He was a recent 1st round pick by the Lumberjacks, and has shown some encouraging signs at 20. What makes him look good is that he has developed into more of a reliever than a starter in the minor leagues. His pitches have shown some potential and could have multiple out pitches. It is going to be too early to tell with such a young prospect, and I'd imagine that if worse comes to worse he could be a trade piece in another deal. It's too soon to make a decision on what Brown is going to turn out into, though I think he has a chance in the bigs if he stays the course.
What This Means For The Rest of the BBA
This trade does make Portland better and addresses an area of need. I think that the Lumberjacks would probably consider looking at another trade should the need arise to further improve their offense, but this gives them a good idea about what the market could be. But Portland is going to probably be at the start of their window, so there is no pressure to make a move unless the Bears or Mad Popes decide to do something big. For the Pioneers, I don't get the sense that they are rebuilding, but rather just getting good value for a player in McConnell Jr. that really was not playing up to his standard. This trade seems like a win for both sides, and honestly makes both teams better. Plus, I love it when teams are aggressive early in the season before the trade market heats up later in the summer.