Trade Analysis: The Don Smith Megadeal
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 2:43 am
It was the biggest BBA trade deadline story this year, as the Kernels were looking to make a deal involving their young star Don Smith . What surprised me was that the Talons were the ones to pull the trigger on the deal. So, let's talk about it a little bit.
Trade Details
Kernels Trade:
ML SP Don Smith
ML 2B Angel De Castillo
AAA CL Hector Gonzalez
Talons Trade:
ML 2B Chua-kah Yang
ML 1B Juan Mateo
ML OF Norihisa Yokoyama
RL SP Anthony DeYoung
Trade Background
Don Smith has the looks of a future ace, having been pitching well for the Kernels this year. With the team struggling at the bottom of the Heartland, GM Geoff Webb was looking to trade Smith and De Castillo in order to try and entice a contender to get a good package in return. In the context of the playoff race, the races to watch so far have been in the Atlantic and both Wild Card races. Webb was always going to get a lot of offers for Smith, and had the advantage of letting teams offer a lot in order to gain an advantage in a year that is wide open at this point. Des Moines chose to pull the trigger on this trade now, and can continue their rebuild with De Castillo's contract off the books he has more flexibility for cap hits down the line on players that interest him in free agency or homegrown players that will be part of the rebuild.
For the Talons, they have been trying to build a contender through homegrown young players, and are in the thick of a Wild Card race in the Johnson that looks to be very tight. GM Sean Marko had the top rated farm system, and thus had a lot of chips to play should he. Pitching had been an area of need for them, and Smith clearly is showing signs of developing in Des Moines. Every great team has their version of "The Trade", and Marko must have felt that the time was right to turbocharge the Talons and make sure that "The SmithStakes" went to him instead of a competitor in the very tight Johnson League.
Kernels Analysis
We shall begin with looking at Yang. Yang is 23 years old, and had made his BBA debut with the Talons this year. He clearly has been going through some rookie struggles at the plate, with not good offensive stats. He has a lot of power potential, and his minor league stats show that he will improve after some early struggles at each level he has been promoted to. Yang will get plenty of playing time for the Kernels, and if he stays the course should be a plus offensive player with a good glove at second base. Webb will not have to worry about a second contract for a while due to plenty of time before arbitration years kick in. I think getting Yang at this early stage looks like a good replacement for De Castillo and with a lot less of a steep contract to pay.
Moving on, we take a look at Mateo. Mateo is young as well at age 22, and has more major league experience than Yang. What makes Mateo a good prospect is that he has shown power in high school and pro ball, and looks like he was starting to get used to BBA pitching this year. He is going to get plenty of playing time next to Yang for the rest of this year. I think Mateo is on the verge of a breakthrough if he can improve his plate discipline and keep getting at bats. A rebuilding team such as the Kernels will get plenty of chances for Mateo. A good prospect acquisition for the Kernels to revamp their infield to compete in the meat grinder that is the Heartland.
We next take a look at Yokoyama. He is a bit of an interesting case to me. He is also young at 22, and has a lot of interesting tools. He is a fast runner and someone who projects well having hit with some power so far this season. The question is that can he continue this given that is arguably the lynchpin of this deal for the Kernels? He is going to be part of the rebuild, and will get plenty of hits. He projects well, provided that he gets enough at bats and can continue to develop at the major league level.
The last player that the Kernels got is DeYoung. He is a young pitcher that shows incredible potential with stuff that looks very live, though his command is going to have to be taught to him a bit so he can fully mature as a pitcher. He is down in the low minors for now, so it's hard to peg him as a contributor at the major league level right now. The biggest risk he faces is the temptation to promote too quickly, and he will need time against better hitters to fully unlock his potential. Give DeYoung a few years, he could surprise you.
Talons Analysis
Obviously, Don Smith is going to be the key for this deal. What he gives you is great stuff, a very affordable contract, an All-Star nod, and touted as the next great pitcher in the BBA. Most importantly, he is not a rental and can stick around after this year. Here is the rub. Smith has been injured a few times in the minors, and he just went from a rebuilding team to the thick of a playoff race where he is the hope of the Talons. That is a very high jump for a young player, especially a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, trading for Smith will help the Talons and he should win games for them. Smith is going to be the future of the Talons, and their fans will love it that Marko was this agressive.
De Castillo was never going to be part of the rebuild for the Kernels, and he can slide into second base for the Talons. What he brings is a proven power pedigree and plenty of postseason experience due to his time with Yellow Springs. What I would be remiss to bring up is that he is getting paid $20 million per year for the next few years, and he is on the back half of his career. This element of the trade is very risky, though he can obviously aid the offense and help win games to get the Talons into the playoffs. Though, he could fall off a cliff due to age and a body with injury miles on it. Still, he is a good key to getting Smith, and he was part of the package by order of Webb.
The final player the Talons recieved was Gonzalez. Gonzalez has closer experience in AAA, and his stuff is very electric with multiple out pitches. That is unique for a closer, as we generally think of closers as having one signature pitch to rely on. He could certainly be promoted to Phoenix should the need arise, but maybe it is best if he acclimate in AAA before getting a full spring with the big club. Gonzalez also replenishes a little depth for now in the farm system, and he is someone who could be a setup guy or a closer in the majors at some point.
Trade Implications
For the Talons, this trade means that they have fully arrived onto the playoff scene. Smith and De Castillo both upgrade their positions and both should contribute right away. At the cost of four very good prospects, this trade is all about making up games against their fellow contenders to clinch that last playoff spot. With the Atlantic race so tight and the Frontier wild card race so tightly packed, teams are going to be feeding on each other the rest of the year. Phoenix just got the jump on their competition by taking two big pieces away from their competitors, and that could be worth a 5 game swing on it's own.
For Des Moines, the rebuild continues. Webb can reload by getting an impressive haul, and he got Smith out of the Heartland and away from playoff contenders in the Frick. The risk is that Smtih could turn out as advertised, and that the prospects the Kernels got in return might all flop. But in terms of getting a return at the deadline, it's hard to argue with 4 good prospects that will get enough time to fully develop. This trade from the Kernel's side will really have to be revisited down the road to see if it really was "The Trade"
Teams That Missed Out
There are going to be a lot of teams that are frustrated to miss out on getting Smith, and it's understandable. Players like that don't get traded much, and especially on a rookie contract is very rare in this league. Here is the thing though. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. This trade set the market for the rest of the deadline frenzy, and now other GM's can weigh that in their thinking. Smith might not be going to Yellow Springs, Brooklyn, or another contender, but there are other good players on the block.
Trade Details
Kernels Trade:
ML SP Don Smith
ML 2B Angel De Castillo
AAA CL Hector Gonzalez
Talons Trade:
ML 2B Chua-kah Yang
ML 1B Juan Mateo
ML OF Norihisa Yokoyama
RL SP Anthony DeYoung
Trade Background
Don Smith has the looks of a future ace, having been pitching well for the Kernels this year. With the team struggling at the bottom of the Heartland, GM Geoff Webb was looking to trade Smith and De Castillo in order to try and entice a contender to get a good package in return. In the context of the playoff race, the races to watch so far have been in the Atlantic and both Wild Card races. Webb was always going to get a lot of offers for Smith, and had the advantage of letting teams offer a lot in order to gain an advantage in a year that is wide open at this point. Des Moines chose to pull the trigger on this trade now, and can continue their rebuild with De Castillo's contract off the books he has more flexibility for cap hits down the line on players that interest him in free agency or homegrown players that will be part of the rebuild.
For the Talons, they have been trying to build a contender through homegrown young players, and are in the thick of a Wild Card race in the Johnson that looks to be very tight. GM Sean Marko had the top rated farm system, and thus had a lot of chips to play should he. Pitching had been an area of need for them, and Smith clearly is showing signs of developing in Des Moines. Every great team has their version of "The Trade", and Marko must have felt that the time was right to turbocharge the Talons and make sure that "The SmithStakes" went to him instead of a competitor in the very tight Johnson League.
Kernels Analysis
We shall begin with looking at Yang. Yang is 23 years old, and had made his BBA debut with the Talons this year. He clearly has been going through some rookie struggles at the plate, with not good offensive stats. He has a lot of power potential, and his minor league stats show that he will improve after some early struggles at each level he has been promoted to. Yang will get plenty of playing time for the Kernels, and if he stays the course should be a plus offensive player with a good glove at second base. Webb will not have to worry about a second contract for a while due to plenty of time before arbitration years kick in. I think getting Yang at this early stage looks like a good replacement for De Castillo and with a lot less of a steep contract to pay.
Moving on, we take a look at Mateo. Mateo is young as well at age 22, and has more major league experience than Yang. What makes Mateo a good prospect is that he has shown power in high school and pro ball, and looks like he was starting to get used to BBA pitching this year. He is going to get plenty of playing time next to Yang for the rest of this year. I think Mateo is on the verge of a breakthrough if he can improve his plate discipline and keep getting at bats. A rebuilding team such as the Kernels will get plenty of chances for Mateo. A good prospect acquisition for the Kernels to revamp their infield to compete in the meat grinder that is the Heartland.
We next take a look at Yokoyama. He is a bit of an interesting case to me. He is also young at 22, and has a lot of interesting tools. He is a fast runner and someone who projects well having hit with some power so far this season. The question is that can he continue this given that is arguably the lynchpin of this deal for the Kernels? He is going to be part of the rebuild, and will get plenty of hits. He projects well, provided that he gets enough at bats and can continue to develop at the major league level.
The last player that the Kernels got is DeYoung. He is a young pitcher that shows incredible potential with stuff that looks very live, though his command is going to have to be taught to him a bit so he can fully mature as a pitcher. He is down in the low minors for now, so it's hard to peg him as a contributor at the major league level right now. The biggest risk he faces is the temptation to promote too quickly, and he will need time against better hitters to fully unlock his potential. Give DeYoung a few years, he could surprise you.
Talons Analysis
Obviously, Don Smith is going to be the key for this deal. What he gives you is great stuff, a very affordable contract, an All-Star nod, and touted as the next great pitcher in the BBA. Most importantly, he is not a rental and can stick around after this year. Here is the rub. Smith has been injured a few times in the minors, and he just went from a rebuilding team to the thick of a playoff race where he is the hope of the Talons. That is a very high jump for a young player, especially a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, trading for Smith will help the Talons and he should win games for them. Smith is going to be the future of the Talons, and their fans will love it that Marko was this agressive.
De Castillo was never going to be part of the rebuild for the Kernels, and he can slide into second base for the Talons. What he brings is a proven power pedigree and plenty of postseason experience due to his time with Yellow Springs. What I would be remiss to bring up is that he is getting paid $20 million per year for the next few years, and he is on the back half of his career. This element of the trade is very risky, though he can obviously aid the offense and help win games to get the Talons into the playoffs. Though, he could fall off a cliff due to age and a body with injury miles on it. Still, he is a good key to getting Smith, and he was part of the package by order of Webb.
The final player the Talons recieved was Gonzalez. Gonzalez has closer experience in AAA, and his stuff is very electric with multiple out pitches. That is unique for a closer, as we generally think of closers as having one signature pitch to rely on. He could certainly be promoted to Phoenix should the need arise, but maybe it is best if he acclimate in AAA before getting a full spring with the big club. Gonzalez also replenishes a little depth for now in the farm system, and he is someone who could be a setup guy or a closer in the majors at some point.
Trade Implications
For the Talons, this trade means that they have fully arrived onto the playoff scene. Smith and De Castillo both upgrade their positions and both should contribute right away. At the cost of four very good prospects, this trade is all about making up games against their fellow contenders to clinch that last playoff spot. With the Atlantic race so tight and the Frontier wild card race so tightly packed, teams are going to be feeding on each other the rest of the year. Phoenix just got the jump on their competition by taking two big pieces away from their competitors, and that could be worth a 5 game swing on it's own.
For Des Moines, the rebuild continues. Webb can reload by getting an impressive haul, and he got Smith out of the Heartland and away from playoff contenders in the Frick. The risk is that Smtih could turn out as advertised, and that the prospects the Kernels got in return might all flop. But in terms of getting a return at the deadline, it's hard to argue with 4 good prospects that will get enough time to fully develop. This trade from the Kernel's side will really have to be revisited down the road to see if it really was "The Trade"
Teams That Missed Out
There are going to be a lot of teams that are frustrated to miss out on getting Smith, and it's understandable. Players like that don't get traded much, and especially on a rookie contract is very rare in this league. Here is the thing though. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. This trade set the market for the rest of the deadline frenzy, and now other GM's can weigh that in their thinking. Smith might not be going to Yellow Springs, Brooklyn, or another contender, but there are other good players on the block.