Atlantic City/Seattle trade analysis

[blake]

On 12/01/2001 Atlantic City and Seattle came to agreement on a 6 player trade:

Atlantic City sends the following

ML - Dwayne Johnson

ML - Jim Brochtrup

to Seattle in exchange for

ML - Raulo Mora

AA - Mike Williams

R - Steve Williams

R - Takanobu Eida

Analysis:

Seattle

SP Jim Brochtrup

Brochtrup started 31 or more games and pitched 200+ innings in each of the last 6 seasons. Hes averaged 16 wins a season in that period. Most impressive in Brochtrup's career has been his elite control. His career BB/9 sits at 0.99. In 2000, he walked a mere 15 batters in 229 innings, for an otherworldly 0.59 BB/9

However, Brochtrup's innings have decreased every year since 1997. Last season Brochtrup was hit hard, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The most troubling aspect was his 11.18 H/9. Part of that could be attributed to greater league offense overall, but he also put up a 1.83 BB/9. Thats still excellent, but well below the 0.59 BB/9 the previous year. With a 5.32 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and only 201.1 innings pitched, Brochtrup pitched more like a fringe #3 or #4 than the #1 of previous years. Whether that will continue remains to be seen.

3B Dwayne Johnson

It's a similiar case with Johnson. From 1995 to 2000, Johnson put up a 127 OPS+ or better. In 2001, in a year where offense was greater, Johnson posted a 101 OPS+, the lowest in the last 7 years. His AVG (.246), OBP (.320), and SLG (.462) were all well down from the previous 6 seasons. He also struck out a career high 137 times.
While he didn't show as dramatic a down swing as the 32 year old Brochtrup and he did win a gold glove for 3B, his offensive production declined fairly significantly.

It remains to be seen if each player will rebound or continue to decline. Seattle is expected to be an elite team in 2002, especially with these additions, and it should help each player being in a winning environment.

Atlantic City

3B Raulo Mora

Mora will no doubt be the replacement at 3B for Johnson. He is 27, still in his prime, and doesnt have nearly the wear and tear on his body Johnson has had. While he doesnt have the power normally preferred from a 3B, he has hit to a career .331 average. While Johnson put up a .216 ISO in 2001, Mora's was a meager .128. Atlantic City should expect a significant drop in power production out of 3B in 2002.

SP Mike Williams

Williams is an excellent starting pitching prospect who was ranked the #11 prospect in baseball pre-2001. In 2001, as a 21 year old in AA, Williams dominated, putting up a 1.07 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, and 9.45 K/9. His BB/9 was a fairly respectable 2.80 for a 21 year old at AA. Williams also had three starts in 2001 where he struck out 15, 16, and 16 batters. A very impressive starting pitching prospect who can dial it up to 101 MPH.

3B Steve Williams

Williams is a 21 year old 3B who was the 10th overall pick in the 2001 draft. He was dominated at rookie ball his first pro year and showed no signs of improvement. He hit only .231/.278/.287 with 1 HR over 216 at bats. He projects only as an average infield defender, but can play all 4 positions. He doesnt project as an elite hitter, but has the potential to be an average to good hitter with good power. He also has good speed and stealing ability. Not an elite prospect but at 21 still has lots of time for improvement.

1B Takanobu Eida

Eida is another 2001 first rounder who was taken 4 spots later than Steve Williams at #14. Strictly a 1B, Eida is a 23 year old college bat that hit .264/.353/.379 his first season in the rookie league. A decent season, but a little disappointing for a 23 year old in rookie ball. Still, his walk totals were impressive and he showed some signs of power, hitting 4 HR's and 8 doubles in a brutal pitchers league. He projects, like Williams, as a good but not elite MBWBA player. The main concern is that he is a little behind developmentally for a 23 year old.

Summary:

Who wins this trade will depend ultimately on how Brochtrup and Johnson pan out in Seattle. If they can both rebound from down years and regain their previous form, they should help the Storm contend for a title. If the Storm can make the playoffs a few times with the two as key contributors, Seattle will have made a good trade regardless of how the prospects develop. The only elite player they lose is Mike Williams, and the odds are only one of Eida and Steve Williams pan out, who are both good but not elite prospects. The chance to get two elite players for one could be a win for Seattle.

For Atlantic City, they may have managed to drop two declining players and 42+ million in salary for two good hitting prospects, a dependable replacement 3B, and an elite pitching prospect. Losing Johnson's power will hurt but considering his 2001 decline, it may end up Mora turns out the better 3B anyway. Mora had a higher WAR (2.5) in 2001 at 3B than did Johnson (2.4). If Williams can develop into a top #2 starter and one of Eida and Steve Williams develop into a good regular at the MBWBA level, that coupled with freeing up salary, Atlantic City will have made a good deal.

[aaronweiner]

This is what I like to refer to as a "holy shit" deal. It's totally, 100% even, as the value of the prospects matches the value of the players surrendered and the change in salary for the team receiving the prospects is significant. It has everything you want from a player-for-prospect deal. This one will be fun to watch long-term.

[jumpmancol]

Excellent write-up! I couldn't agree more with the analysis. I really hated losing Williams as he was a personal favorite, but this was a chance to pick up two very good players that can help us now when the rest of the team is ready. I am in a tough division, and need to be loaded for bear to make the playoffs...hopefully this deal helps get me there.

[cyrisnyte]

Great write up!

I am very new to OOTP and did not want to look like a total idiot in my first major trade. At least now I feel better about the move.

Enjoyed the analysis!

Jeff

Sent from my Sprint Evo using Tapatalk

[jumpmancol]

Great write up!

I am very new to OOTP and did not want to look like a total idiot in my first major trade. At least now I feel better about the move.

Enjoyed the analysis!

Jeff

Sent from my Sprint Evo using Tapatalk

No worries about looking like an idiot...I thought it was a very good trade overall. You'll find that I am pretty fair in my dealings with other owners, and try to do deals that make sense for both sides. That you made the offer only says good things about you as on owner! ATC is un good hands!