2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Analyze and breakdown all Brewster Baseball Association deals here
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2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by jleddy » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:06 am

From the looks of it, I guess I'm somewhat voluntarily taking over Ted's duties as league trade pundit. Rather than grade each of the thirteen deadline deals (I took into account all trades from the last three sims, plus the Lynch deal given its magnitude in both size and impact), I'll be looking at the winners and losers in the aftermath. As much as I dislike grading trades and drafts before the dust has even settled (Tobias Wulms says "hi"), this is a league largely driven by mostly gentlemanly debating and civil discourse, so why not add some more content to discuss? If you want to defend yourself (or brag about your deadline deals), feel free to express them here, but I also welcome you to voice your case as a guest on Justin Nile's podcast, as his show is a great forum for our league. Without further ado...

WINNER: Edmonton
GM Chris Robillard made it well known that he was selling once he traded away staff ace Bobby Lynch earlier in the summer to Calgary. Two weeks prior to the deadline, the Jackrabbits sent another key member of its rotation, Jesus Ramos, to Wichita. The return was underwhelming but Ramos was a pending free agent, so Robillard was able to get something for a player he wasn't intending on extending. (NOTE: Wichita was able to sign Ramos to a team-friendly $18M/3 year deal after the trade.) In addition to the impressive haul for Lynch, Edmonton has gone 21-11 since the deal (July 28) and finds themselves not only in the Frick League Wild Card race, but only two games back of division-leading Calgary.

LOSER: Twin Cities
The moves made by GM Scott Piccoli have been discussed widely on the forums and in multiple podcasts. Piccoli's track record speaks for itself, going to the playoffs three times in the last six years, plus two heartbreaking Game 163 losses in 2034 and 2036, but on paper, three of Twin Cities four deals (tied for the most trades at the deadline with Las Vegas) look like diminished returns. In summary, it appears Twin Cities jumped the gun in moving three All-Stars (CL Lorenzo de' Medici, 3B Joey Newhouse, and SP Josh Brown) and a high-ceiling reliever in Claude Michaud, all who have a combined 15 years of club control remaining, plus sending homegrown staff ace Chris Kelly to Jacksonville. The loss of Kelly, making an arguably below-market $15.7M for each of the next five seasons, is unlikely to be replaced by the prospects Piccoli received. Yes, 2039 has been a disappointment for the River Monsters, but why not run it back for at least one more year with this fantastic core in 2040?

WINNER: Calgary
The Pioneers didn't make any front page deals at the deadline, but GM Kevin Dickson dealt from the team's strength, sending expendable prospects and $17M in cash in three separate deals for two minor prospects, reclamation project Yoshitoshi Ota, and tantalizing reliever Claude Michaud. Calgary's starters rank second in the Frick in ERA - thanks to a dangerous rotation that included the aforementioned Bobby Lynch, who was costly in prospects to acquire - but their bullpen ERA of 4.92 is 13th best. Michaud is a lottery ticket who has the potential to immediately improve the pen, or at worst, will be a better-than replacement-level arm making under $2M for the next several seasons during arbitration. With Edmonton breathing down Calgary's neck for the Frontier Division title, Dickson strengthened his team without giving away (any more of) the future. Bonus points are award for the recent team-friendly six-year extension signed by Chip Puckett, who was acquired in a July deal.

WINNER: Las Vegas' Landis odds
The 2038 Landis runner-up Hustlers are looking to return to the championship in long-time GM Matt Rectenwald's final season at the helm before taking over the Nashville franchise in 2040. Las Vegas was the busiest of all Brewster clubs, making four deadline deals (tied for the most with Twin Cities), with rumors of several more big and small deals that failed to come to fruition. Rectenwald likely overpaid to acquire pitcher Edris Mtume from Omaha, but the Las Vegas front office has been buzzing since making the deal. Additionally, the Hustlers added solid starter Josh Brown from Twin Cities and took a zero-risk flier on veteran Reece Wareham, sending prospects Randy Bader and Jaime Sanchez to Atlantic City in exchange for retaining the remaining expiring 2039 salary of Wareham. In addition, Rectewald was able to send 1B Gervasio Ridder and his $56 contract over three more seasons for promising catching prospect Alberto Rodriguez, 2038 first-round pick Rafael Flores and a handful of minor league relievers.

LOSER: Las Vegas' future
The Hustlers had arguably the weakest farm system before the deadline wheelin' and dealin', but there is no question the cupboard is nearly entirely bare for incoming general manager Brett Schroeder. Schroeder is on record saying he's okay taking over a 2040 Las Vegas franchise that he's expecting to "fall off a cliff," knowing full well the state of the franchise (READ: blame) lays at the feet of outgoing GM Rectenwald. The rebuilding process for Schroeder starts with the hopeful liberation of reliever Mauro Flores and his $76.5M remaining contract, otherwise a potential 2039 Landis appearance for Las Vegas might be it's last for several seasons to come.

LOSERS: Division Leaders Not Named Calgary
Let's do a quick glance at all the action taken by current division leaders in the Brewster during the deadline, excluding previously discussed Calgary:

TEAMDIVISIONDEADLINE MOVES
RockvilleJohnson Atlanticzip
New OrleansJohnson Southeastzero
PhoenixJohnson Sun Beltadded Juan Santana (99 OPS+)
Yellow SpringsFrick Heartlandzilch
CaliforniaFrick Pacificnada
There's a famous saying "Familiarity breeds complacency." Of those five current division leaders, all but New Orleans went to the playoffs last season. Are these teams being lulled into false hope of post-season success based more on their past and present, rather than improve for the future? True, it's hard to blame New Orleans and Phoenix, as they were working the phones hard leading up to the deadline but both came up virtually empty. And Yellow Springs, despite quiet in the past week, was active earlier in the year to improve their squad. But with so many other would-be contenders efforting to improving their playoff chances, it remains to be seen if not making a move was, in fact, the wrong move.

WINNER: Atlantic City
The Gamblers have long been out of the playoff picture, but that didn't stop GM Joshua Biddle from being sellers now to improve down the road. A pre-season roll of the dice for one year of three-time Puckett Award winner Reece Wareham came up snake eyes but Biddle was able to swallow the remaining money and ship Wareham to Las Vegas for Randy Bader, a nineteen-year-old catcher with both upside and warts, and back-end of the rotation starter Jaime Sanchez. Additionally, in gambler fashion, Atlantic City traded disappointing starter Yoshitoshi Ota to Calgary for $7.1M in cash, which Biddle can then use in a variety of ways down the road for the rebuilding franchise, where any sized win deserves to be celebrated.

LOSERS: Future Johnson League hitters
In 2040, after the league's expansion and realignment, batters in the newly formed Johnson League will be facing newly-traded Chris Kelly, Bobby Lynch, Jesus Ramos, and Josh Brown on a regular basis. Please send all complaints to the desks of C. Robillard and S. Piccoli.

WINNER: Omaha
GM Justin Niles may oversee the Hawks, but was shark during the trade deadline, making two deals that greatly improved the franchise's minor league system. In an oft-discussed trade, Niles shipped two meddling relievers (Pavel Bure Jr. and Luis Gonzales) to Huntsville for a pair of nineteen-year-olds, intriguing outfielder Andre Ly and a potential ace in former first-rounder Timo Dooley. Omaha was also involved in the massive Ridder/Mtume deal with Las Vegas which netted the Hawks a trio of young relievers/spot starters, scout-favorite catcher Alberto Rodriguez, and 2038 first-round pitcher Rafael Flores. Omaha will be saddled with Ridder's huge contract for the next four years, but could cut the deal short by not realizing vesting option conditions starting in 2041. Let's face it...Ridder making over $18M per year might be the biggest winner of them all.

WINNER: Santana/Crocker deal
A case of the rare win-win deal for both sides, Phoenix and Montreal made a small but smart trade in the final hours of the deadline. The Talons acquired Juan Santana, who Montreal covered the remaining salary for 2039, leaving Phoenix only on the hook for Santana's final year of arbitrations, projected at $7.3M. Santana should immediately fill-in in right field for disappointing Jayden Harsnett, who was forced into action when former All-Star Thad Meyer went down in May with a torn ACL. Santana's addition to the offense ought to help Phoenix in a run for the Landis. For Montreal, they save some money moving Santana, who was expendable with superstar-in-waiting Jim Antolin due to debut in 2040. Plus the addition of Peter Crocker adds a much-needed plus-bat prospect to the Blazers' farm system. Kudos to general managers Sean Marko and Kevin Spencer for improving their clubs for now and the future, respectively.

WINNERS: Two-Pitch Pitchers
The likes of Raul Garcia (Vancouver), Juan Valdes (Twin Cities) and Angel Gomez (Twin Cities) were apparently highly-valued by their new general managers, but unfortunately between the three relievers, the combined number of their usable pitches could be counted on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. The list of hurlers with a two-pitch arsenal making it as starters is short, so expectations should be tempered. But good on these kids who will be given every chance to make it in a rotation in the Brewster minors.

LOSER: Huntsville
Sometimes a team needs to shore up its bullpen heading into the playoffs, but Huntsville's trade with Omaha to acquire two relievers - or, at best, a reliever and a spot-starter - doesn't make a lot of sense as they sit in fourth place in the Southeast Division. Yes, their bullpen - ranked 14th in ERA in the Johnson League - could use an improvement but the cost was a former first-round pick Timo Dooley and Andre Ly, a well-rounded toolsy outfielder who has yet to turn 20. Phantoms GM Vic Caleca has stated that his owner endorsed the deal, but not for the reasons you'd think. Silver lining? Pavel Bure Jr. is probably assured a job towing cars after his playing days end.

LOSER: Frick Pacific
In the highest contested division race in the league (only three games separate first-place California from fourth-place Valencia), no moves were made to distinguish anyone from the pack. That said, San Fernando can potentially get reigning Nebraska Award winner Feliciano Rafael back from the injured list in time for the playoffs, so it's one of those roster moves that could feel like a trade, but what's the rest of the division have to say for themselves?

WINNER: Brewster GMs enjoying the flurry of activity
The feedback amongst the League's general managers was this was one of the more entertaining, if not exciting, trade deadlines in recent memory. With so much action and so many close divisional and wild card races, a happy and exhilarated league is a strong league. And a strong league like the Brewster makes all our experiences that much better. Great job all around and good luck down the stretch! Oh, and 🤬 Jon Reed. #shotsfired
Last edited by jleddy on Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:12 am

I really enjoyed reading this, good stuff. Ted left some big shoes to fill with his transaction analysis and at least the trade portion seems to be filled in nicely.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by nerfHerder » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:15 am

Here's what Hawaii has to say for itself. I'm hoping Dave Tallent is rejuvenated by a long stay in AAA, that Jack Nichols can bring some of his magic to the big league club, and that Rodrigo Lugo's return from the DL can help eat some bullpen innings. Don Draper has hit pretty well so far too. I feel pretty good about those moves without losing anyone. Pre-deadline deals to bring in Costello (.294 15 HR 38 RBI with HAW), Jesus Hernandez, and Leonardo Gonzalez have gone well too. We're trying without giving up too much future.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by niles08 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:34 am

I really enjoyed reading this breakdown and recap of the trade deadline.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by bschr682 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:00 am

Hah this was good. And yes grrrr Jon Reed...
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by aaronweiner » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:06 am

Good piece. I made my moves before the deadline, as I usually do, so little surprise I didn't push.

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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by crobillard » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:07 am

Love the article. Well done breaking them down and I agreed with a lot you said. I’ll add that whenever someone trades as often as I have this season, you’re bound to have some lumps. The Costello deal is probably good for my future, as is the Lynch deal. My trades sending Rhodes and Ramos were probably duds because I should have gotten more back for both of them. Still, I feel good about what I did this season. I wish I could have done more, I had big plans, but I’ll save that for the offseason.

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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by GoldenOne » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:43 am

Nashville doesnt even get a mention one way or another? Picked up some big-boys and, I think, didnt give up too much of the farm. Made it even easier to swallow is that the guys I picked up are just hitting their ARB years after this season.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by shoeless.db » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:47 am

SS Hakim Ngowa. 2039 Landis Series MVP. Acquired by California before the deadline.

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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:53 am

This will be fun to go back to in a year or two.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by handaspencer » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:06 pm

Glad to see the Montreal and Phoenix deal graded as both teams won. I felt that way when discussing the deal and ultimately that's what you want when making deals.

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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by jiminyhopkins » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:10 pm

handaspencer wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:06 pm
Glad to see the Montreal and Phoenix deal graded as both teams won. I felt that way when discussing the deal and ultimately that's what you want when making deals.
Here, here. Santana already making an impact last sim for the Talons. 99OPS+? Not for long!
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by jleddy » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:41 pm

GoldenOne wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:43 am
Nashville doesnt even get a mention one way or another? Picked up some big-boys and, I think, didnt give up too much of the farm. Made it even easier to swallow is that the guys I picked up are just hitting their ARB years after this season.
Complete oversight...I had every trade, including that one, laid out and somehow, at 3 AM, I went right past it. I think it improves the team for the next 2-3 years, so good for Recte. In a league where starting pitching is at a premium, and good starting pitching prospects are worth their weight in gold, I would have thought you could have gotten more than an injury-prone Newhouse, a closer (you already have Ata in the fold and Velez was holding his own) and a "meh" corner outfield prospect. B-/C+ for Nashville, solid B for Twin Cities.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:45 pm

I think I like the TWC side of the Kelly deal better than some others do.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:50 pm

I mean, ultimately, Scott swapped a couple big pieces for an entire lineup and partial rotation/bullpen (minus the shortstop) of good prospects. And the fact is that his team was aging and creaky. Maybe he could have mucked things up for another year, but ... shrug.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by udlb58 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:07 am

jleddy wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:06 am
LOSERS: Division Leaders Not Named Calgary
Let's do a quick glance at all the action taken by current division leaders in the Brewster during the deadline, excluding previously discussed Calgary:
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by udlb58 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:09 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:06 am
Good piece. I made my moves before the deadline, as I usually do, so little surprise I didn't push.
I wanted to make the Kelly deal about 2 months earlier. I also like to trade early if buying.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by indiansfan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:30 am

Thanks for the analysis. I think I’ve made more in season deals then ever before but I keep having 3-3 sims. Hoping September it pays off.
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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:03 am

My problem was that I wasnt sure what I wanted. I wanted a 2B/SS, but i didnt really want to pay for one. Of course with my 2B, SS and backup SS all on the DL right now, maybe that was a mistake.

I really wanted to sell some prospects leading into the expansion draft, but I didnt really like the value people were throwing out for them. And I am still going to lose 3 decent prospects, so all that happens if I trade one of them is I lose a slightly worse 4th prospect.

I just couldnt seem to swing any deals that made sense for me.

Oh well. I should still make the playoffs. Hopefully make a run. We'll see.

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Re: 2039 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:19 am

JimBob2232 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:03 am
I am still going to lose 3 decent prospects, so all that happens if I trade one of them is I lose a slightly worse 4th prospect.
I suppose that depends on what value you have left unprotected off the major league roster, and what Brett and Chris want to do with their teams.

But, yeah, I knew what I wanted and had lots of irons in the fire, but couldn't find a value point that worked in the end.
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