Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Analyze and breakdown all Brewster Baseball Association deals here
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Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Post by Ted » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:24 am

And the beat rolls on. There's a whopper of a deal between Las Vegas and Yellow Springs in here, plus I kill Alan again (about John Galt). I kid, I kid. Haven't even looked at it really yet. So lets start there.

Brookyln/Huntsville
Brooklyn receives:
SS John Galt

Huntsville receives:
SP Fernando Moran

[list][*]John Galt has supporters and haters. I firmly fall in the first camp. I feel like some people just can't let go of what he once was and could have been. Forget that. He's still a SS with a .340+ OBP and doubles power. He's posted 2-3 WAR and 30 doubles with 10ish homers on average for the last three years. His ZR is only a little negative. He was 5th in BA, 1st in OBP, 3rd in slugging, 2nd in OPS, 5th in WAR, 1st in doubles, 5th in runs scored last year. He's still a top 5 SS, and an offensive producer at a very weak position. Yeah he's a platoon at this point, but right-handed, no-hit solid defensive SS are a dime a dozen. Even if you leave him in against lefties, you're getting the production of every one else's chump SS. He makes a bit much on the 11.5 mil side, but that's only a mil or two high. He's only signed through next season, so it's manageable. Why so much talk on Galt? I'm trying to put a fork in the idea some people seem to have that he's an overpaid scrub. He's not. He is, and has been, and probably still has a year or two left, as a top five SS. Argument's done. Fork inserted.[/list]



[list][*]Fernando Moran is the definition of a mid rotation starter. He's about league average or a tick better most years. Being a lefty without a split is a bit of a plus. He was traded to Huntsville with a reasonably priced, expiring contract. On interesting thing about him is that his BABIP over his career has been awfully high at .322, with only one season even below .310. It makes you wonder if his fastball is a little hittable, especially for middling righties. While not material to this discussion as it existed at the time of the trade, I would like to know Kyle's thoughts on they Moran extension. It seems a smidge pricey but more importantly rather long.[/list]

Huntsville has up and coming shortstops, salary demands, and so needed to move Galt. They have been trying to do so for years without much success, largely due to many people dogging him. I actually think they lost out a bit in this deal in terms of pure talent. Mid rotation dependable starters, while valuable, are more common than top 5 SS, and Moran is only a bit younger than Galt. On the other hand, they got a useful part for a player they didn't need, and that's always a strong move. For Brooklyn this trade doesn't seem like the best move. They already had a great SS in Medrano, and acquiring Galt moves him to second, while doing nothing to address a 3B logjam and creating a hole in their staff that provoked the Leroy move, and you know how I feel about that. I don't recall their prior 2B options being much good, so maybe it's okay. Just seems a little square peg round hole-ish.


Grades
Brooklyn
Talent: A-
Organizational: C+
Huntsville
Talent: B-
Organizational: B+



[hr]


Seattle/Vancouver
Seattle receives:
3B Rein Vis

Vancouver receives:
SS Pete King
P Corey Jackson(prospect)
P Jorge Hernandez (prospect)

[list][*] Rein Vis is a nice little player. While he's best at 3rd, having gold glove ability there, he's a Swiss army knife who can play all over the field. He's not going to excite anyone with his bat, but his career .330 OBP and .700 OPS is something you can be comfortable with at most of the positions he'll play. Given his versatility, he's an absolute bargain at 4 mil (especially compared to what some of the nutjobs in FA this year are asking for) with two no risk options for 2029 and 2030.[/list]



[list][*]Pete King has been a terrific player throughout his career, but it may finally be coming to a close. With his speed a thing of the past and his bat slowed, his only reason offensive threat is the base on balls. He may serve a purpose as a backup or platoon against lefties, but that's about it. It's a bit early, but King's an interesting hall of fame discussion. His peak years are as good as you could want for the hall (6+ WAR at short 5 times, 5 another), but he absolutely vanished after age 29.
[*]Corey Jackson is a 22 year old righty who relies on the two worst pitches for splits (curve and slider) to complement a strong fastball. That fact, along with his marginal control ceiling (which he HAS to reach to be anything), means his best role may be in relief. His stuff, which now is only okay against lefties, may play up a bit there, while being near dominant against righties.
[*]Jorge Hernandez is a 19 year old lefty lottery ticket, the type who has the general makeup of someone who could bump into a big leaguer. He's actually upped his velocity and stuff a bit since the trade already, but will need a little more help to make it. [/list]

I don't know if Vancouver had any real plans of using King, but I'm guessing not. They do have a glut of young infielders (of varying talent levels). As a move of a player they didn't need in Vis for some prospects, this is pretty dead on fair. For Seattle, who needed the kind of depth Vis can provide, this is a great pickup at an appropriate price, while getting out of King's salary. Great move.


Grades
Seattle
Talent: B-
Organizational: A-
Vancouver
Talent: C+
Organizational: B+



[hr]


Las Vegas/Yellow Springs
Las Vegas receives:
SP Domingo Castillo
C Perry Mullins (prospect)
P Tim Waller (prospect)
P Bernardo Garcia (prospect)
P Gonzalo Fajardo (prospect)
3B Clarence Brown

Yellow Spring receives:
C Luis Campos
SP Mario Gonzalez
CF Hector Cantu


[list][*]Domingo Castillo has been out of Halifax for a few seasons, and most of you are expecting me to end this sentence with something like, "and that has been long enough to demonstrate his lack of performance there was a productive of his environmen.t" If you thought that, you'd be wrong. While his ERA has improved, outside of one year in Vancouver's offense killing park (and the JLP in general), his park independent metrics have been nearly identical, and last year they were the worst of his career. It's not that he's a bad pitching option, more that he has/had the skills to be a top flight starter, and that has never materialized. On top of that, he has one of the WORST contracts in baseball. He's going to be paid only 8 million less than Alfredo Salazar in 2028 and 2029. Let that sink in. The team that has him (and I don't assume Vegas because Recte is absolutely masterful at big trades) then has to hope he mercifully opts after after 2029, or they will be on the hook for 47 mil over the next three years.
[*]Perry Mullins looks like a backup catcher right now. He does have good power and a decent eye, to go with good behind the plate tools. However, he just doesn't but the bat on the ball well enough to be a regular. He's a nice prospect though, in that any kind of bump makes him a lot more interesting.
[*]Tim Waller is an okay middle relief type prospect. He's 20 , righthanded and uses a fastball/slider combo. That of course means we will believe he can get lefties out when we see it.
[*]Bernardo Garcia is a bit more of a project than a prospect. He's 22 and needs to finish off his stuff. He also looks like he may not be able to keep big league level hitters from getting the fat part of the bat on the ball.
[*]Gonzalo Fajardo on the other hand, is a bit more of a real prospect in terms of ceiling. He's is woefully underdeveloped for a 21 year old, but the lefty appears to have very good control to go with decent motion and okay stuff. He has a wonderful changeup, but I question if his fastball is good enough to make that matter. He could really use some velocity. He may end up being more of a rubber armed middle relief type.[/list]



[list][*]Luis Campos has a solid track record of being a .260-.270, minimal walk, 30-35 HR type. For what its worth, OOTP rates his as poor behind the plate, but no one knows if that matters. He's paid a bit much at 13.5 mil, but his contract is only through 2029. He's never been much of a WAR producer, likely related to his poor OBP ability.
[*]Mario Gonzales is a 29 year old lefty who looks better on paper than he is. He throws hard, has a great fastball, a strong slider, and a good forkball. The problem is, talented righties seem to just tee off on him. Through his career, he has a 3.08 FIP against lefties and 4.57 against righties. He's only making 2.4 million however, and if you want to pay that to a back end starter, that's not too bad.
[*]Hector Cantu is a 24 year old lefty with good contract skills, a solid ability to take a walk, and blazing speed. If he grows into the power people are projecting, he could be a pretty nice hitting prospect against righties. It's tough to tell if he really has the range for center. If not, he's a gold glove in right. While his bat would lose value with a move to a corner OF spot, it could still play there. He's also not a bad option at third.[/list]

Wow, where do you start? In a vacuum, and team that picks up Castillo's deal gets an F. You just can't pay a mid rotation starter one sixth of your payroll. Fortunately for Recte, there are other parts to this deal. Campos deal isn't very good either. Even if you don't believe in WAR, paying over 10 mil for a guy that doesn't get on base is never a good idea. It is a much shorter deal at least. The player I'd most like to have in this deal is probably Cantu. He looks like one of those solid little 2 WAR types you need to plug into a competitive roster. His versatility is a huge plus. I know that Vegas has no need for him in the outfield, so that makes him expendable there. Mario Gonazles is serviceable enough, if disappointing. The prospects Recte got back don't equal Cantu's value though.

Lets look at this in parts. 1) Castillo for Campos. I'd take Campos any day. 2)Cantu for everything else Recte got. That's either a wash or slightly favoring Cantu, purely on talent, not necessarily fit. Gonzales, meh.

Here's the really damming thing for Recte. Taking on Castillo's salary is why he couldn't keep Estes. Ouch. Secondly, would you rather have those prospects or try plugging in Cantu at 3rd to replace Davis for next to nothing? This is a bad deal Recte. Add to that at the time you were looking to shed salary if I remember correctly, it's worse. If I made this deal, I'd be hosed for years, because I'm not as good at trading out of a mess.

Yellow Springs actually comes out smelling like a rose. Yeah, Campos sucked for them, and replacing a mid rotation starter with a back end starter surely affected their playoff run, but we couldn't have predicted how badly Campos would suck, and Cantu played quite nicely. In all, this is a hurts me now but saves me later deal for the Nine, even without knowing how those players would perform.

I'm giving out a rare F to Recte for this deal. Of course, he went on to win a Landis, so what the hell do I know anyway?

Lastly, did anyone notice Recte snuck this in the trade?


Grades
Yellow Springs
Talent: B+
Organizational: A
Las Vegas
Talent: B+
Organizational: F



[hr]

I'm calling this one a bit early in terms of numbers of trades. There were a couple here, primarily the last one, that required a great deal more discussion than usual. Add Recte to the list of people that think I'm an arrogant ass. Of course, he had to listen to me back in the GBC days so he probably already thinks that.
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Re: Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Post by agrudez » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:59 am

Agree with your assessment in the first one. Galt was and still is clearly the superior player. And I regretted the Moran contract as soon as he signed. My one hope was that he was just getting hurt by BRK's batter stadium and could turn if around (get the fip under 4) in a neutral park, but in a SSS he did the same here and then we made our park a hitters one, too.
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Re: Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Post by udlb58 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:03 am

Speaking of poor trades, how about trading a 6/5/6 Galt for a 6/1/2 Mendoza back in 2019?
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Re: Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Post by recte44 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:11 am

Finally, someone noticed my No Soup For You throw in. :)

I don't think you're an ass. I wanted to get out of Campos' money, and taking on Castillo was a way to do it. I probably lost Estes as a result, but it got Brewer in the lineup while still leaving me with a top rotation talent. Worst case scenario is I have the extra money coming in to afford to eat his contract at some point, Swanson style.

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Re: Trade Review 2027 #6 - Late May into June

Post by udlb58 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:39 am

recte44 wrote:Finally, someone noticed my No Soup For You throw in. :)

I don't think you're an ass. I wanted to get out of Campos' money, and taking on Castillo was a way to do it. I probably lost Estes as a result, but it got Brewer in the lineup while still leaving me with a top rotation talent. Worst case scenario is I have the extra money coming in to afford to eat his contract at some point, Swanson style.
I wouldn't really think it's a bad trade for a team that has no revenue problems, but having to choose Castillo over Estes is the thing that makes it bad in the end. Would anyone have blamed Matt if he had cut Castillo and extended Estes? Las Vegas certainly pulls in enough revenue to eat $18m for the next 5 years.
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