Trade Review 2027 #1 - Pre FA salary cap moves

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Ted
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Trade Review 2027 #1 - Pre FA salary cap moves

Post by Ted » Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:36 pm

Good grief guys. You've made twenty-two trades this offseason. I have to stop getting behind.

Atlantic City/New Orleans
Atlantic City receives:
RP Tony Torres

New Orleans receives:
RP Hani Tinsley

[list][*] Torres' ceiling for effectiveness is probably AA. Three's really not much more worth saying[/list]



[list][*] Tinsley lost 4 mph last year. At this point, he's likely a little better than a middle reliever, but not quite what you want for a setup guy. The five time reliever of the year's fastball just doesn't pop anymore, and that makes his change less effective. He's signed for two more years att 7.2 per. If he doesn't slide any further, he could still pitch effectively, but that's a scary proposition, especially for 2028.[/list]

New Orleans gave up practically nothing for Tinsley. Really they only chewed up cap space. They are still well under the cap, so I suppose it doesn't hurt too much to pay Tinsley three times what he's worth at this point, but ones thinks there has to be better use for that money. Atlantic gets out of a contract when they desperately need money.


Grades
Atlantic City
Talent: F
Organizational: B
New Orleans
Talent: B-
Organizational: C+



[hr]


Jacksonville/Huntsville
Jacksonville receives:
2B Chris Workman
DH Cesar Valencia

Huntsville receives:
SP Felipe Baez (prospect)
SP Jesse Howard (prospect)
SP Steve Riley (prospect)
1B Mike McPherson

[list][*] Chris Workman is a pretty hard type of player to pick up these days. OBP monsters with speed a second base do not grow on trees, and he has above average, if not spectacular power to go with it. He's only twenty six as well. He'll be a pricey player for Jacksonville to extend, but he's worth a good deal as well. He isn't flawless however. His versus left split is horrid, to the point where you might platoon him. This is doubly true given he has lost range and is now only an okay defender. The range is a real issue, as any further decline could force him to move to first base, where his talents become less impressive, while still above average. (Bruce Wayne could be a good comp.)
[*] Cesar Valencia is another well known quantity. He has all world power against righties, and is still a 40 home run threat. But he comes with questions as well. He's 30, and an upcoming free agent. How much is he asking for. If it's 10+, are you willing to pay a guy over 30 who has already slightly lumped from his peak that kind of money for the 5 years he'll ask for? What about when you add in that he cannot play in the field and doesn't walk?[/list]



[list][*] Felipe Baez is a top of the rotation option, with his lack of flaws and 4 strong pitches. He's nearly developed, so there's not much question of major lumps, and could see playing time this year. His split against lefties and his makeup may prevent him from being someone you're happy with in the number one spot, but he's young and any kind of bump (which we often see in the mid-late 20's) make him near ace material.
[*] Jesse Howard is another 4 pitch righty who could be even better than Baez. He throws quite hard for an 18 year old at 92-94, and with any velocity bumps he turns into an ace. He has some serious makeup issues as well, and has a long way to go. He could survive a little lumping and still be a mid to back end of the rotation option, but Huntsville would love to see some control improvement to make them feel better.
[*] Steve Riley is a 21 year old lefty with 4 real pitches and two garbage ones. He has solid velocity, but looks like he'll never be a flame thrower. He's well developed though and looks good to reach his potentials, which should make him a solid #3 type pitcher.[*] Mike McPherson is a salary dump. His contract is simply atrocious for a very replaceable lefty power bat.[/list]

There has already been a good deal of discussion on this deal, with about the same number of people on both sides. It comes down to philosophy and perspective. Huntsville had to shed some salary for cap reasons, and had replacements for the stars it lost. While they may have temporarily downgraded their offense, they got a top 2 starter prospect that will almost certainly develop, another top two starter prospect, and #3 starter prospect for their loss. The have the income to dispose of McPherson's salary should they chose to do so. Jacksonville on the other hand makes a bit more of a questionable move. From a talent standpoint, they basically gave up their a future 1-2-3 of a starting rotation to acquire an all star second baseman in his prime and a 40 HR vet. I think that the question here is that this is a win now move, and no one seems to know if Jacksonville is a win now team. The JLA appears wide open, but Brooklyn seems to have loaded up a bit, and Halifax and Louisville seem to have enough pieces to do something should the cards come right.


Grades
Jacksonville
Talent: A
Organizational: C+
Huntsville
Talent: B+
Organizational: A



[hr]


Calgary/Yellow Springs
Calgary receives:
2B Bryan Vogel
SP Dieter Hartigner

Yellow Springs receives:
LF Bobby Campbell
IF Carlos Estrada
CF Angel Hernandez

[list][*] Bryan Vogel has lost a little pop recently, but he's probably still good for 50 XBH and solid second base defense, which should make him a 2 WAR player again. For 1.5 mil, that's an absolute steal.
[*] Hartinger looks like despite his age, he can still contribute in a back of the rotation role. He's paid reasonably as well, and his expiring contract makes it so you don't have to worry about his arm falling off, which could happen any time.[/list]



[list][*] Twenty-five year-old Bobby Campbell has only limited exposure in the Brewster. As a lefty, his ratings give him chance to post okay avg and OBP, but he's not a power guy and only plays acceptable below average defense.
[*] Carlos Estrada has a AAA bit, but can defend three infield positions well, which depending on the circumstances may net him a backup roles.
[*] Hernandez is basically the outfield version of Estrada.[/list]

I really don't like this deal for YS. They appear to be DHing Campbell, and I think Vogel would be better there anyway. Yes he's older, but I think you may actually be able to get more value out of two years of Vogel and one year of Hartinger than they will out of Campbell. That being said, clearing salary definitely payed a role in this move, but I just feel you could have gotten more for these guys.


Grades
Calgary
Talent: B-
Organizational: B+
Yellow Springs
Talent: C
Organizational: C



[hr]


Louisville/Atlantic City
Louisville:
SP Liam Pringle

Atlantic City:
$100

[list][*] When Louisville traded Pringle to Atlantic City last year, I said he was an acceptable back of the rotation option, who might benefit from an RP conversion. I stand by this. He definitely didn't impress for the Gamblers last year, but he has a good track record for the genius.[/list]



[list][*] Atlantic City has a lot of options here.[/list]

Quick little deal. Maybe ATC could have gotten a tad more for Pringle, but after the way he played for them, I'm not sure. For the Gamblers it was more about freeing up the space anyway.


Grades
Louisville
Talent: C+
Organizational: B-
Atlantic City
Talent: N/A
Organizational: C+



[hr]


Louisville/Hawaii
Louisville receives:
1B Jean Girard
CF Jose Sanchez

Hawaii receives:
CL Ron Clulow

[list][*] Girard is a AAAA 1B. Between his right-handedness and his mediocre 1B bat, he doesn't belong in the Brewster.
[*] Has anyone else noticed that the genius has a weird fetish for speedy elite defenders that can't hit. He collects them like pogs. Well, add Sanchez to that pile.[/list]



[list][*] Clulow is interesting. He a righty who walks a batter every other inning has has very mediocre movement. His fastball and cutter, however, are electric. His track record has far outpaced expectations. It can be a gamble to assume this will continue, but at 24 he could be a valuable bullpen piece.[/list]

The genius is going to have to help me out here, because I'm not following. Clulow has value, is young, is cheap and Lousiville is doing what teams run by the superintelligent due when my team would be rebuilding due to my meager faculties. Why trade that guy for two players who have marginal ability to even stick on a big league roster? Great move for Hawaii.


Grades
Louisville
Talent: D+
Organizational: D+
Hawaii
Talent: C+
Organizational: A



[hr]


Omaha/Jacksonville
Omaha receives:
SP Bryan Daugherty (prospect)
CF Santiago Baez (prospect)

Jacksonville receives:
SS Jonathan Archer

[list][*] Bryan Daughtery spells his name with a "y" and that should be enough to hate him. In reality though, he's an okay back of the rotation prospect. His stuff is a little on the "meh" side, but left-handedness should help him out. He's a bit underdeveloped for twenty though, especially on the control side, which is his real asset, and that makes him risky.
[*] Baez is an okay 4th OF option, and maybe a righty platoon partner if your lefty CF isn't a great hitter. [/list]



[list][*] Jonathan Archer, at 34, is still one of the best SS in the league. He's worth every penny of his salary. He may however be a difficult free agent to resign, depending on his demands. [/list]

This is a tough move for Omaha, who made it ostensibly to free up money for Brito. Given that their window seems to be closing, it also doesn't make sense to extend him if his demands were high. That being said, their returns look at best to be a #3-4 starter and a 4th outfielder, which is a tough pill to swallow for a stud like Archer. For Jacksonville, this deal is improved by the fact that they have loaded up in other ways. They also didn't lose much for a very good veteren presence.


Grades
Omaha
Talent: C
Organizational: C+
Jacksonville
Talent: B+
Organizational: B+



[hr]

So that's it for this edition. I'm arbitrarily stopping here so I can go have a beer and dinner. I'll pick up later tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: Trade Review 2027 #1 - Pre FA salary cap moves

Post by Cliche » Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:40 pm

Good stuff!

I was bummed that I wasn't able to do much beyond trim some salary. But at least we got that done.
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Re: Trade Review 2027 #1 - Pre FA salary cap moves

Post by RonCo » Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:04 pm

Ted wrote:
Calgary/Yellow Springs
Calgary receives:
2B Bryan Vogel
SP Dieter Hartigner

Yellow Springs receives:
LF Bobby Campbell
IF Carlos Estrada
CF Angel Hernandez

[list][*] Bryan Vogel has lost a little pop recently, but he's probably still good for 50 XBH and solid second base defense, which should make him a 2 WAR player again. For 1.5 mil, that's an absolute steal.
[*] Hartinger looks like despite his age, he can still contribute in a back of the rotation role. He's paid reasonably as well, and his expiring contract makes it so you don't have to worry about his arm falling off, which could happen any time.[/list]



[list][*] Twenty-five year-old Bobby Campbell has only limited exposure in the Brewster. As a lefty, his ratings give him chance to post okay avg and OBP, but he's not a power guy and only plays acceptable below average defense.
[*] Carlos Estrada has a AAA bit, but can defend three infield positions well, which depending on the circumstances may net him a backup roles.
[*] Hernandez is basically the outfield version of Estrada.[/list]

I really don't like this deal for YS. They appear to be DHing Campbell, and I think Vogel would be better there anyway. Yes he's older, but I think you may actually be able to get more value out of two years of Vogel and one year of Hartinger than they will out of Campbell. That being said, clearing salary definitely payed a role in this move, but I just feel you could have gotten more for these guys.


Grades
Calgary
Talent: B-
Organizational: B+
Yellow Springs
Talent: C
Organizational: C

Maybe it's even worse than you think.

I agree we probably could have gotten more for V & H, but I'll say the phone was not ringing off the hook.

To be honest, we did the Vogel/Hartinger deal to clear salary to be able to overpay for Castillo, and because Vogel wasn't going to play 2B for us. We decided early that Hawk Hernandez could not play SS, so it was either Hernandez or Vogel at 2B, and McNeill is coming anyway. So off Vogel goes. We're not sure of Hartinger, and figured we would do better with his $4.4M elsewhere.

On the receiving end: we really did this for 20 yo CF Angel Hernandez, as strange as it seems.

- Campbell will be in the minors as injury insurance.
- Estrada is a fine utility guy, and his glove alone says he can _probably_ be solid if I need to start him as short if/when Edward Allen gets hurt.
- Hernandez fills our organizational CF pipeline. We're playing the numbers game here, and Hernandez has several traits we like (solid defender, runs, hits the gaps, and doesn't strike out). One or two little bumps and he becomes a top-third CF...which would be considerably better than we've got now. At 20, we think he's a good candidate to improve.
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