Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and more

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Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and more

Post by Ted » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:22 am

Weeeelp, I guess there's one more preseason deal to do. As previously noted, I'm going to post as trades are completed from here on out, and just bump the article for new ones and cap it every so often. Hopefully that can keep me from getting so behind in the future.

Vancouver/Halifax
Vancouver receives:
SP Domingo Castillo

Halifax receives:
CL Wally Lopez

[list][*] There has already been a good deal of debate on the success failure of Domingo Castillo. On paper, he's a clear 1A type pitcher, not a true ace, due to in large part to subpar endurance. He never has, however, performed at that level for the Hawks. His career 3.73 FIP (3.05, 3.66, 3.97 last three years) isn't too shabby for a hitter's paradise like Halifax. HE has decent HR, BB and K rates per 9 as well. However, he simply hasn't gotten the job done. Three straight years of 4.3ish ERA's while struggling to get to 200 innings has worn out his welcome in Eastern Canada. BABIP's in the .335+ range haven't helps. While I'm sure that plain old bad luck and porous defenses in Halifax haven't helped, the simple fact is he may just not be that good. He only has one dominant, a slider. His fastball and cutter are simply good enough. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Maybe a pitcher's park like the new Vancouver one will help. He's also going tp be on the wrong side of 30 soon and will be asking for a hefty extension as his contract expires this year.[/list]



[list][*] Wally Lopez is a 23 year old righty fireballer who routinely hits 100 MPH. His FB/SL doesn't give him the best split against lefties, but he's managed well so far. In his rookie year he threw 60+ innings with a 10.6 K/9 rate and a sub 3 FIP. He's not a great motion guy, but only gave up 6 dingers last year. It will be interesting to see how that works out in Halifax.[/list]

It's tough to give up on a guy, but I think Halifax makes the right move here. Every year Castillo underachieves for them, he loses value. How could they pay him the money he's likely to ask for? In return they get a good young reliever who will be cost controlled for some time. Good value move for Vancouver, except that if they intend to extend Castillo at all, they'll be gambling on him staying good into his early 30's. Not a bad bet, but potentially scary. On the other hand, if they are just hoping he proves he just needs a friendlier park and can swap him again, they could recoup some nice assets.


Grades
Halifax
Talent: B-
Organizational: B
Vancouver
Talent: B
Organizational: B


[hr]

Madison/Calgary
Madison receives:
RF Mike Henson (minor leaguer)

Calgary receives:
P Fernando Alaniz

[list][*] Mike Henson is a AAA OF. I'm not even sure he's AAAA.[/list]



[list][*] Alaniz is a 4 or a 5 at this point in his career. It's a bit concerning that he's lumped his motion at age 27 and has at least potential lumps in his other ratings. He also makes 20 million over his season and next, which is a hefty amount for a guy that looks like a 4.00 FIP due to proneness to giving up the long ball. On the other hand, any player that can start in the MBWBA has some value, and for a team that simply needs an arm to fill out the rotation, he isn't a terrible option if you have the cash to spare.[/list]

Madison had been trying to move Alaniz for while, and it seems teams were scared of his performance last year and salary. However, a move to a team that isn't made out of AAAA guys and Salazar can have a solid effect on a marginal pitcher. I'm not sure Calgary is the right fit, but Alaniz is probably worth a shot if you can afford him and have a park that suppresses homers. Madison clearly didn't want to pay a guy that wasn't doing much for them. My only criticism is that there are better 1.5 star prospects out there. Had they been a bit more patient, they might have gotten a player who is at least a lottery ticket. Calgary takes a flyer for nothing.


Grades
Calgary
Talent: C-
Organizational: B-
Madison
Talent: D
Organizational: C-


[hr]

Greenville/Tuscon
Greenville receives:
P Jose Rodriguez (prospect)

Tuscon receives:
RP Roberto Vargas

[list][*] Rodriguez is a 20 year old righty with a solid fastball and a couple decent breaking pitches. He's not tremendous against lefties. He is on a good development curve. Any velocity bump of any other kind of bump probably makes him a viable MBWBA option in some kind of role, although it may be bullpen.[/list]



[list][*] Vargas is a 29 year old lefty whose best option is probably lefty specialist. He really struggles with giving up the long ball and has a spotty track record. However Tuscon needs pen help and beggars can't be choosers.[/list]

Greenville gets a borderline prospect for a player that they don't need during their rebuilding process. Tuscon frankly could go for a rebuild too, but they have just enough on the ML roster that it's hard to just detonate the thing. Decent, if minor, deal both ways.


Grades
Greenville
Talent: C+
Organizational: B
Tuscon
Talent: C-
Organizational: B-
Last edited by Ted on Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by bschr682 » Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:42 am

My thoughts exactly. I look at it like, if he sucks I lost Lopez but nothing more than that. If he is great maybe I extend him or maybe I let him walk and get a comp pick. Seemed like a good move considering how much my park should in theory help him.

And if he is really, really great well then my team ought to be much improved. Perhaps the JL Pacific can three-peat?
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by agrudez » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:31 am

Castillo had a 3.05 FIP and 5.2 WAR last year. Walker is a 6 MOV RH'd reliever that had a very good season (by reliever standards) last year in a pitcher's park, but it remains to be seen how he'll do outside those friendly confines. And both teams get a 'B'? With all due respect, Ted, are you kidding me?

You can talk about the money situation, but Halifax is 40M under the cap next year and were already under this year. This isn't a revenue poor team like Havana trying to get something out of nothing from a guy they won't be able to extend after the season - this is a team that theoretically wants to compete for a playoff spot making a cap saving move by trading an ace that they didn't have to do today, tomorrow or next week. If I had been the one fleecing HFX in this deal instead of Brett the forum would've erupted - probably, in a twist of irony, led by him - again.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by Ted » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:41 am

I really don't like pitcher WAR that much, Kyle. I think it's noisier than batter WAR. (I'm not bashing it, it's still good, and FIP is usually very reliable.) IP differences and K rates matter too much (for FIP too) Also, if you take out his last season, Castillo has been a 3ish WAR pitcher, which is grossly underperforming his ratings. I think Halifax's defense and park effect have badly hurt him. Lopez on thee other hand did fine with his MOV last year in admittedly limited time in a pitchers park. I would not be at all shocked to see him go to Halifax and give up a ton of homers and Castillo take advantage of a better park in Vancouver and player better. He's still 29 though and will probably ask for a deal in the 12-13 mil range for 5-6 years. Could you really sign that deal if you were Halifax? On the basis of one 5+ WAR year? His BABIPS have always sucked ass. Sometimes that's D, sometimes that a telling sign. Maybe Lopez isn't the best thing to get for him, but I don't think they did horribly. I do see your argument. This could go very badly.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by aaronweiner » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:46 am

Joe was determined to deal Castillo for the best young reliever he could; said so publicly. He's saving $16 million a year by doing this (including this one) and gets back a prime young asset. I'm going to say he could have squeezed Vancouver for another couple assets, so I agree with Kyle in principle, but Joe got what he said he wanted.

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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by agrudez » Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:25 am

Ted wrote:(I'm not bashing it, it's still good, and FIP is usually very reliable.)
Markus has stated (and many people have already proven mathematically) that he doesn't use bWAR, fWAR, etc. for pitchers. As best I can tell it is very close to FIP*IP*constant. So if you like FIP (as you should) then you should also like pitcher WAR in OOTP as its basically just a measure of the time period (IP) at which that pitcher maintained a certain FIP.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by felipe » Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:39 pm

I agreed with Kyle, (shudder), and came close to posting angrily about the rip off, while hating myself for not posting an offer before it was too late

then I looked at the respective salaries, and cooled off

who knows...perhaps this trade is part of a far greater strategy than my tiny Genius mind can comprehend

I myself have dumped good talent, high salary, cheaply, in order to acquire other assets...or perhaps he needed to clear room on his staff for some youngster? Maybe he wants to amass some $? Perhaps he looks at the state of the JLA and figures he doesn't need Castillo to win it...?

Castillo makes $16 million for 2026, then becomes a free agent...I highly doubt he will sign a short or long term deal for less...I hope not anyways, before hitting free agency at least

Is a young solid reliever that poor of a return on a one year rental? Plus savings of $16 million?

Maybe a little bit small of a return, but nothing as bad as my initial reaction thought it was...I'm sure its the best offer he received.

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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by scottsdale_joe » Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:43 pm

agrudez wrote:You can talk about the money situation, but Halifax is 40M under the cap next year and were already under this year. This isn't a revenue poor team like Havana trying to get something out of nothing from a guy they won't be able to extend after the season - this is a team that theoretically wants to compete for a playoff spot making a cap saving move by trading an ace that they didn't have to do today, tomorrow or next week. If I had been the one fleecing HFX in this deal instead of Brett the forum would've erupted - probably, in a twist of irony, led by him - again.
Blah.
A. Halifax was under the cap this year by a few million and didn't really need to get further under. But they would have been $40 million under next year ONLY if they did not extend Castillo and Hinson. Hinson wanted big bucks. Castillo wanted more than he's earning now. Between them they wanted $38 million. There would have gone that next year cap space. And that doesn't even take into account that Roberto Ramos wants a lot of cash too. Not to mention Guerrero and Jones might get more than currently estimated for their first arbitration year next year. (PS: Hinson signed for $16.5 million after lots of haggling.)
B. War Schmaw. Castillo having a 5.2 WAR last year is ludicrous as far as I am am concerned. Granted I am not a new age stat fan, but last year he sucked for the last 2/3rds of the season. He made the All Star team after going 7-2 with a good ERA in the first few months. From then on he was 2-12 and his ERA was well up in the 5.00's to result in a season ending 4.28. In previous years he was terrible early and better late in the year. He craves for a pitcher's park. In Vancouver he gets one or at least one better than in Halifax.
C. Castillo is rated fragile. He has avoided any serious injury for three straight years after two serious injuries in 2022. Not to jinx Vancouver and I sincerely hope he throws 200+ innings for them and wins 20 games, but he's overdue for another spell of injury. For Vancouver's sake, I hope I am wrong.
D. As a starter his stamina rating of '4' is problematic. Yeah, it jumps occasionally for '4' to '5' and then back to '4', but you would like to see a '6' or better in a starter. Or at least I would.
E. Lopez may be no world beater, and he will have to deal with the hitter friendliness of the Halifax ballpark. But he's young, cost-controlled, rated durable, throws at 100 mph (like Castillo), and has two very good pitches. I like having a solid closer and consider it more important than most people do. I was lucky to have Jason Egan in my Vancouver days, but I had him because I was willing to use the number two overall draft pick to get him over some pretty darn good starting pitchers and position players. Lopez will never be an Egan, but he's the best I could come up with in a deal.

Thanks for thinking I was fleeced. Personally I think you are dead wrong. I am delighted with the deal. (Not that I really care what you think, mind you :) )

PSS: Lopez is better looking too.
Last edited by scottsdale_joe on Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by udlb58 » Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:26 pm

The 4 stamina doesn't bother me as if a pitcher is good enough, with enough good pitches, he will be able to last at least 6-7 innings a start. He may never lead the league in complete games, but if you have a good set-up man and closer, you're golden in his starts.

I really think the biggest problem with Castillo is that he has one dominant pitch and two above average pitches. I would be interested to see how his stats would look if he only faced 18-21 batters an outing. Is he getting knocked around later in games because he doesn't have the pitch variety to last 3 times through a lineup?

Castillo can be very good in the right setting, and that setting clearly wasn't Halifax. I'd like to say Joe could have gotten more for him, but I don't have access to his inbox. My guess is that he couldn't. I know that my keeping Grandados kept me from being able to acquire Castillo. I would have easily offered more than Lopez, but I couldn't give the cap relief Vancouver did (because of that $30M salary this year)
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by Ted » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:32 am

udlb58 wrote:
I really think the biggest problem with Castillo is that he has one dominant pitch and two above average pitches.
This. So much this. A seven rated fastball just isn't that great, even if it's 100mph. With the dedication to realism that this game has, I'm sure he doesn't throw slider so much more that it mitigates his underwhelming FB and change, especially in the late innings when he's probably a tick slower due to his crud stamina.
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Re: Trade Review 2026 #2 - Vancouver/Halifax are jerks, and

Post by Ted » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:30 am

bump for recent trades
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