Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Analyze and breakdown all Brewster Baseball Association deals here
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Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:26 pm

A couple of interesting moves in this edition. Teams starting to address issues not dealt with in FA or covering for injury losses.

Las Vegas/Yellow Springs
Las Vegas receives:
SS Masafumi Minami (prospect)
P Jose Garcia (prospect)
P Jose Lorenzana (prospect)

Yellow Springs receives:
P Rafael Delgado (prospect)
SS Sixto Berroa

[list][*] Minami currently projects as a AAAA SS. However, he's bumped twice already at 20 and it wouldn't take much more to make the speedy Japanese youngster a legitimate option. He doesn't really have the range to be a top notch defensive SS, but could transform into a decent utility IF type.
[*] Jose Garcia is a righty starter that just doesn't have the tools to pitch in the MBWBA. His ceiling is depth AAA starter or good AA starter.
[*] Re Laranzana: see Jose Garcia[/list]



[list][*] Delgado looks like a solid middle relief option. The string cutter helps this left get righties out, but his curve needs a ton of development to ever keep him a viable option. At 22 and only 4/9, this may not happen. He did move from 6 to 7 CO over the winter, so there is some hope he could develop more.
[*] Sixto Berroa is a AAAA SS. It's not a bad thing to have a guy like this in your lineup, given how weak a position SS is, but I'd pick a better defender if you're gonna punt offense.[/list]

A few players moved here. YS got the better talent, but Vegas got the player with the best upside in Minama. Fairly decent deal. Just not exciting.


Grades
Las Vegas
Talent: D+
Organizational: C
Yellow Springs
Talent: D+
Organizational: C


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Montreal/Las Vegas
Montreal receives:
P Craig Browning

Las Vegas receives:
3B Alex Sanchez (minor leaguer)
MR Eric Rigney (prospect)

[list][*] Browning could trick a few people into thinking he's a starter. He doesn't have much of a track record, but he really doesn't look to have the stuff to succeed in that role. Montreal looks like they will move him to the pen, which should be good for the 26 year old righty's fastball/curve combo, and keep his poor 3rd and 4th pitches from getting exposed.[/list]



[list][*] Sanchez is a minor leaguer.
[*] Rigney is a 20 year old right with a decent cutter/splitter combo, but he'll have to bump a LOT more to ever be a legit big league option.[/list]

It's like Recte went around the league this weak asking people if they would take his major league wanna-be's for prospects that have bumped but have a ways to go. Browning hasn't thrown much. If he can succeed as a reliever, Montreal wins this one.


Grades
Montreal
Talent: C-
Organizational: B-
Las Vegas
Talent: D+
Organizational: C-


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New Orleans/Las Vegas
New Orleans receives:
RP Pedro Espin

Las Vegas receives:
CF John Glassey (minor leaguer)

[list][*] Pedro Espin's arm fell off this winter. Sometimes a guy like him can still succeed for a time despite this, however he's not worth the 9.9 mil he will receive this year. He's lost 4 mph in 4 months. At this pace, he'll be throwing 82 mph by season's end[/list]



[list][*] Glassey is a AA CF[/list]

This is salary relief for Vegas, pure and simple. The Crawdad's get a free pen arm in a transitional year, assuming they had the cap room.


Grades
New Orleans
Talent: C-
Organizational: C+
Las Vegas
Talent: F
Organizational: B-


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Atlantic City/Huntsville
Atlantic City receives:
C Jay de Coster

Huntsville receives:
P Esteban Gil (prospect)
CF Julian Rodriguez (prospect)
SS Carlos Salazar (R)

[list][*] Jay de Coster is a decent catching option. He's got a good eye, acceptable contact hitting ability although this is mitigated a bit by his right handedness. He has line drive power. He is probably subpar behind the plate. He has no real MBWBA track record. He's young at 24, and should be a solid option for 5 or so year, if not necessarily a player you would be excited about starting.[/list]



[list][*] Gil is a 20 year old righty with a fastball curveball combo that likely limits him to a middle relief role as he will struggle with elite lefties. Any kind of bump and he turns into a pretty darn good relief prospect. Andy kind of lump and he's marginal.
[*] Rodriguez can't hit the ball out of the infield but he does everything else well. He doesn't really have the range for center, but he'd be a gold glove F. He's lefty, hits for average, runs well, walks at a good clip fora contact guy. I see a leadoff hitter in the making here. Yeah, he's 19, but he's developing well.
[*] Another 19 year old, Salazar does a few things quite well, but none good enough to be a big league regular. looks like a utility IF. Any kind of bump and he could have a decent career. [/list]

I don't get this deal for ATC. They could have had Hank Sharp for a song. It seems like there are other catchers out there. Rodriguez looks like a nice prospect, whereas de Coster will struggle to put the bat on the ball throughout his career, which isn't acceptable for a poro defending C. I don't know that I would have made the deal straight up Rodriguez for de Coster, let alone add these other guys who only need a little luck to contribute. Salazar probably won't matter but at least looks like a backup, and Gil could be a cheap relief option for years.


Grades
Atlantic City
Talent: C
Organizational: C-
Huntsville
Talent: C+/B-
Organizational: A


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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Cliche » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:47 pm

Appreciate reading your take on it.

I looked at Sharp but he's making too much money. Same reason I couldn't land Stephens or Weiss. I needed somebody making less money to fit into my available money this year (when I still had other holes to fill) and also to avoid locking up my extension money for next year.

I don't love de Coster, but I like him and I think he'll do okay for us. Rodriguez was the only guy I was worried about trading away. I think he could be a solid lefty outfielder. I have plenty of young arms that can end up in the bullpen, and I'd never want to play Salazar at SS long-term so he had no potential future spot here.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by agrudez » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:53 pm

Wow, that's a harsh assessment of de Coster. Look at him vs. Stephens. Once de Coster fills out his last point of POW POT the only difference between the two is 3 points of POW. So... take Stephens' career line (.253/.347/.471/.818) and subtract about 30-40 points of SLG for lowered HR totals. He's easily a .750+ bat in this league which is more than many starting catchers can say - and his "no real MBBA track record" is a positive since that means he has 6 years of cost control to look forward to. How many young, ML ready, above average starters at their position get traded with 0 ML service years accrued in this league? I'd argue there is very little precedent for this type of move - and a quantity over quality deal isn't what I set my sights on from the get-go, that's for sure. If all I was getting back was a 19 year old slap-hitting RF prospect I'd much rather have had him be the best backup catcher (at league min salary) in the league for the length of Stephens' contract.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:22 pm

I agree with Kyle on de Coster. You can't start decrying the lack of good young catchers in one breath and in the next one, knock someone for overpaying for a young catcher with lots of potential at the plate. It's hard to get a catcher who can hit at all; this is as true here as it has always been in MLB.

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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by danwh » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:30 pm

This is all great stuff - nice to read about the background and thoughts behind trades!

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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:48 pm

Part of why I don't like de Coster is that he's not that great behind the plate. I think catcher ability matters, but I'll admit I saw 6 arm, 4 ability, instead of of his actual 4 arm, 6 ability. My bad. I also think Stephens' 3 points of power is huge. I think it's way more than .040 points of slugging. de Coster is 24 and not developed. So what, he has 4 years fully developed before he starts to lump at 28?

Coster is fine, and he may be a .750 OPS catcher, I see him more in the low .700's, a .240/.330 avg/obp guy with 15 HR tops. That doesn't get me too excited. I may be wrong here. Again, I also don't like OPS. Slugging percentage is a crappy stat. It's over half BA for most guys and a home run is worth more than 2x a double. The last thing is its tough for me to get excited about a 6 Con 6 pow right handed catcher. Anyway, I'm probably am being a bit harsh.

Aaron, I get your point. And it IS valid that de Coster could be better than I think simply because C is so bad looking ahead.


One of the things that happens with these is you get my slant on team building thrown in. de Coster doesn't fit into my system, if he develops, Rodriguez does. I love high OBP/high range excellent defenders. I'll try to mitigate my bias more in the future.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:00 pm

I think the other thing to point out here, is that I love when people disagree with me when I think someone made a mistake. A chance to be wrong is a chance to learn. It's even better when the education doesn't cost me anything.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Cliche » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:07 pm

We definitely disagree on catcher defense. There's zero evidence that it has any effect in OOTP. I think it's one of the areas that OOTP falls short, IMO.

catcher ARM can make a difference in terms of stolen base attempts against, but I've never seen any evidence that connects CERA to catcher ratings. I've seen the opposite actually, in addition to my own experience.

If there's data out there backing catcher defense in OOTP I'd love to read it.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:16 pm

I don't have much evidence on catcher D. I know that it is modeled poorly in terms of ZR, efficiency, etc. I don't care about ARM strength as much. What I've read about what's incorporated into catcher ability is things like pitch framing and game calling, which do matter tremendously. What I don't know is if this actually works as intended (i.e. take two identical pitching staffs, managers, etc, and give one team a catcher with high ability and one with low, and see if it matters). It would be so hard to measure. However, if Markus is trying to model those things, and last I saw OOTP was, then I'm going to try to incorporate those. Because what I do know from real baseball, is that the pitch framing and game calling matter FAR FAR more than catcher offensive output unless your catcher is an all star caliber bat. Again, this is influenced by the fact that outside of a few very good hitters, with most catchers fall on the weak end of the hitting spectrum. So if de Coster really is a .340 OBP 20-25 HR guy, then he falls out of this argument entirely and I'm wrong. In that case, you just take the good hitter at a weak hitting position.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:29 pm

Catcher defense is an interesting question. I am, however, fairly certain that "hold runners" for pitchers actually does make a difference.

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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:34 pm

I should point out that Maxwell Weiss, playing in a hitter's park, had a .770 OPS last year and managed a 4.2 WAR. Catchers who can hit are fairly rare.

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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by agrudez » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:29 pm

Count me in the "catcher defense doesn't matter all that much" camp. I had a 10/10 catcher in another league and he actually put in a negative ZR one season. He also didn't post much different of a CS%, either. The only appreciable thing I noticed was other teams running on him less than the average guy, but as someone whom doesn't think very highly of generating SBs on offense, having teams take less opportunities to give me back free outs seemed counter-productive, lol.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by recte44 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:41 pm

Actually, I notice a HUGE difference in number of attempted steals based on catcher defense. I also notice a difference in ERA based on catchers. It's not as much as it should be, but it's there.

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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by udlb58 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:48 pm

I definitely don't have a ton of experience with 16, but in previous versions (like, waaaaay back in OOTP12) that I had experience with, it was the infield ratings (error, range, etc) that seemed to have more of an effect on things like ZR and Errors, while catcher ability was pretty limited to passed balls and arm was big in deterring and catching runners (obviously combined with the pitcher's hold rating)

In a vaccum, I'd expect de Coster to end up somewhere around .270/.340/.380, which would make him a solid starter. If the power develops, he could be a top 10 catcher
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by udlb58 » Fri Mar 11, 2016 11:33 am

udlb58 wrote:I definitely don't have a ton of experience with 16, but in previous versions (like, waaaaay back in OOTP12) that I had experience with, it was the infield ratings (error, range, etc) that seemed to have more of an effect on things like ZR and Errors, while catcher ability was pretty limited to passed balls and arm was big in deterring and catching runners (obviously combined with the pitcher's hold rating)

In a vaccum, I'd expect de Coster to end up somewhere around .270/.340/.380, which would make him a solid starter. If the power develops, he could be a top 10 catcher
de Coster ended up hitting .270/.369/.380 this year, just sayin....... :champs:
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by agrudez » Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:51 pm

Since we're playing the "told you so game"...
agrudez wrote:He's easily a .750+ bat in this league which is more than many starting catchers can say
.748 OPS - missed it by 2 points... darn.

He also compiled 4 WAR which confirms the second portion of that statement (and is more than even I predicted - I think I tossed a 2.5-3 prediction out elsewhere). Tough to believe, after all the vitriol, that I actually ended up under-selling him, eh?
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by udlb58 » Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:24 pm

agrudez wrote:Since we're playing the "told you so game"...
agrudez wrote:He's easily a .750+ bat in this league which is more than many starting catchers can say
.748 OPS - missed it by 2 points... darn.

He also compiled 4 WAR which confirms the second portion of that statement (and is more than even I predicted - I think I tossed a 2.5-3 prediction out elsewhere). Tough to believe, after all the vitriol, that I actually ended up under-selling him, eh?
Watch next year he'll go out and suck, but I was filling out the awards ballot, noticed his name and remembered this general discussion.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Ted » Fri Mar 11, 2016 6:51 pm

It really would be fun to go back through these someday and see if I was ever right.
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Re: Trade Review 2025 #2 - Preseason and Spring Deals Pt. 1

Post by Cliche » Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:16 pm

I'm happy with de Coster so far. We definitely needed his steady OBP this year.
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