CAL Loads Up for the Playoff Push

[agrudez]

After doing so many reviews of all our trades, it seemed only fair that Ted get it paid forward.

Indy receives:
SP Juan Lopez
3B Rien Vis

California receives:
3B Doug Glover

In the midst of a disappointing season, the Crusaders find themselves in a 3-way tie for 1st in the, as predicted, terrible JLP with a record of 38-44. Needless to say, after finishing with an 89-74 record and making their first playoffs in 7 seasons last year, this was not what management was hoping for an encore. The reason, much like the current state of the JLP, was as predicted as well. With the 2nd most runs allowed thus far this season (rotation ranking 2nd and bullpen ranking 3rd), the Crusaders have certainly found themselves in the hunt game in and game out, but with the 10th most runs scored (10th OPS) they have been let down by the offense. As such, with a boat load of cap space (40M, to be exact), it should not come as a surprise that priority #1 heading into the deadline was picking up an impact bat – and in Glover that is exactly what they did.

For California, with arguably the worst 2B starting in the league today, it makes sense that they would target a middle infielder on top of an impact bat. The fact that they get both in one neat package is obviously a huge plus. In Glover, they finally find legitimacy in their offense – and while it remains to be seen if he can continue his .881 OPS and >6 WAR pace in a pitcher’s park, it is very, very easy to imagine that he will be the best Crusader hitter when it comes playoff time. At 36 years old, Glover has maintained his current ratings for a full 2 seasons and only ‘lumped’ 1 CON and 1 POW thus far from his peak – signaling that he isn’t in danger of slowing down any time soon. Financially, he has a perfectly fine contract for a player of his performance (18M this year, 17M TO next year and 15M PO the year after) that should *absolutely* be picked up by a Crusader team that projects for yet another huge amount of budget space next offseason that will likely have, again, little to spend it on.

The first player going out is Lopez – a ‘6’ MOV starter that has had trouble keeping the ball in the park even in California’s caverns. Last year he compiled an outstanding 2.77 ERA on the backs of a .226 BABIP against and the buoy of CAL’s park factors. This year he has posted a 3.17 with a .278 BABIP and the same factors. One can already see how a normalized BABIP would impact Lopez based on his 3.59 and 3.92 FIPs respectively in those two seasons, but what can’t be understated is that, even playing for the Crusaders, he still has an eye popping 1.16 HR/9 against. Translate that to a park that *doesn’t* depress HRs and I can easily see his FIP eclipsing 4 in a given year – aka. just a guy. In Vis, the Crusaders lose an all-glove, no bat hot corner with a career 96 OPS+. We can argue he might fare better in a non-pitcher’s park, but I would counter that his ‘4’ POW depresses how that conversion will take place. At the end of the day, even if he manages to eclipse 100 OPS+ for the first time in his career - he’s not much more than just a guy himself.

All in all, California gave up two ‘meh’ players that look better than they are because of the situation they’ve been placed in – Lopez because the Crusaders’ park has kept him from giving up 40+ HRs/year and Vis because *anyone* looks good next to crap like Jose Sanchez. In return, they get a bat that will probably finish the year a full 100 OPS points better than their 2nd best option – and even in half a season of work for his new team may rank as the 2nd highest compiled WAR from an offensive player on the team. They also traded from their strength (pitching and defense) to address their weakness – and have Glover, a MVP caliber talent with no signs of slowing down, under team control for just as long as they had Vis and Lopez (and its already been established that you probably don’t want to allocate resources to giving them long extensions anyway). I don’t see any way that we can’t call this a resounding success for a California team that should find it even easier, now, to be the best of the worst amongst the JLP at the end of it all.

[Ted]

Nice talks man. I don't know if I'll pick up Glover's option. I don't mind next year. It's the 15 million in two years that bothers me. He's defied father time so far, but man, who knows. If I offer him 15 mil in FA next year, does anyone match me?

Also, I've been so set on finding a SS so I can move Pruitt to 2B that I hadn't even thought of just playing Glover there. Hilarious.

[agrudez]

I don't know if I'll pick up Glover's option. I don't mind next year. It's the 15 million in two years that bothers me. He's defied father time so far, but man, who knows. If I offer him 15 mil in FA next year, does anyone match me?

That's crazy talk - he's a MVP candidate. There is no way you would be able to sign him to a 2-32 deal this offseason. I could see him commanding a 3-50 type deal... maybe even more than that. You have to overpay for the rare legitimate superstar off the FA market.

Also, I've been so set on finding a SS so I can move Pruitt to 2B that I hadn't even thought of just playing Glover there. Hilarious.

Ah, yeah, didn't think about that. Glover at SS and Pruitt and 2B probably is your best option. The former was a +10 at short 2 seasons ago and Pruitt is a -5 so far this year.

[njherdfan]

Excellent analysis here.