Trade Review 2024 #1 - Midseason Retooling

[Ted]

I've gotten behind again (surprise), so I thought I'd start with the currently relevant stuff and work backwards. Did some reformatting to see if I can make the visual appearance more pleasant. .

Talking about trades wouldn't feel right if Kyle, Brett, or Chris weren't involved, so of course we kick things off with a Huntsville/Hawaii blockbuster.

Hawaii/Huntsville
Hawaii receives:
OF Francisco Flores
SS Antonio Sanchez
2B Paul Backstrom (prospect)
P Mark Watson (prospect)
3B Ricardo Onelas (minor leaguer/quad A player)

Huntsville receives:
SS John Galt
SP Peter Bryant
CF Octavio Corral (prospect)

[list][*]You have to feel for the Tropics. The JLP was theirs for the taking in 2023 before Galt went down, and then what came back wasn't the player that looked ready to finally reach superduperstar status. Someday some folksy baseball fanatic will pen The Ballad of John Galt. He's nearly a lock at this point to be snakebitten throughout his career before finally getting a championship as a part of a platoon at third as a decrepit 38 year old. Thing is, sans some contact and a very tragic power dropoff, he's still the best shortstop currently on a major league roster. Despite his dropoff, his contract is fairly reasonable for the rarity of being a very good avg/obp SS with line drive power. This is clearly what Huntsville saw when they acquired to Galt to hopefully end their revolving door at SS, where the likes of Todd Kilger, Sanchez, Nicholas Brody, and Armando Reyes haven't been getting it done over the past season and a half.
[*]Coming along with Galt is Peter Bryant, who provides an insurance arm when he comes off the DL. Bryant's best years may be behind him, but he's got the pedigree to get hot for a stretch. Given the struggles of the Phantoms rotation, he could end up being an unsung hero. He's off the books after the season.
[*]Corral looks like a AA guy. A contact bump could make him a 5th OF type. He doesn't really have the range to play CF, so it's tough to see him as a viable corner OF guy given his lack of power and righthandedness.[/list]



[list][*]Hawaii is in a weird spot (similar to every other team in the JLP). They need to rebuild given how the baseball gods shat all over their hopes and dreams, but find themselves competitive simply because the rest of the division is terrible. For moving Galt they get stud 2B prospect Paul Backstrom. Backstrom was stuck behind Phantoms star 2B Chris Workman and therefore became expendable. He's very good defensively and brings a ton of power potential to go with good contact hitting and speed skills. His development's stalled a bit over the last year, likely because he's run out of things to accomplish in AAA. The only real knock on Backstrom is that he's 23 and far enough from his power ceiling to wonder if he'll get there. However, the low mark for him would be very good, and more likely he will be elite at second.
[*]Francisco Flores is an interesting player. He's almost completely developed at 21, and has solid, if not spectacular batting skills as a lefty outfielder. However, he doesn't quite have the thump you'd want out of a corner OF, and if he loses any ability to field he'll be a sub average CF. He's still a solid OF option that will stay cheap for a long time while providing decent, if not eye popping production.
[*]Antonio Sanchez is a slightly below average fielding SS who can't hit. He's replacement level.
[*]Watson doesn't have the stuff to start. His mid 4 AAA era's back that up. He also doesn't have the pitches to make an RP conversion likely to do much. As a reliever (converted or not) he looks like he has a ceiling of middle relief.
Onelas is a AAAA 3B who doesn't field well enough to merit even backup status on an ML roster.[/list]

This is a good trade for both teams. Backstrom doesn't have the arm for SS, despite his 8 rating there. He's the same age as Workman, and Workman is developed. Backstrom could have been converted to a pretty great left fielder, had HSV decided to go that route, but that doesn't help them now. Galt gives the Phantoms a 4 WAR upgrade over the mess they've had at short right now while they're trying to win a title. I think Kyle will end up using Bryant at some point, and get a very good 10 starts or so out of him. The Tropics pick up a couple pieces for the next run. Backstom's a cornerstone. Flores couldn't crack a crowded outfield, but should find a place in Hawaii, even as an uber 4th outfielder. No one else in this deal matters.

Grades
Hawaii
Talent: A
Organizational: A
Huntsville
Talent: B+
Organizational: A-




Montreal/Atlantic City
Montreal Receives:
MR Eric Rigney (prospect)
OF Francisco Chacon (prospect)

Atlantic City Receives:
C Ernest Watts

[list][*] The rebuild continues in Montreal as the Dragons pick up a couple more prospects. Chacon looks like a quad A guy. His left handedness and pop, along with solid defensive skills make him a possibility for a 4th OF job. If he gets a contact bump, he may be able to start. As an 18 year old, who knows what he'll do.
[*] Rigney's a 20 year old right-handed reliever with a nice cutter/splitter combo that will help him get lefties and righties. He has some control problems and likely needs to bump something to be viable at the major league level.[/list]



[list][*] For flipping two prospects in need of some help to make a difference at the big league level some day, the Gamblers pick up veteran C Ernest Watts. Watts is clearly in decline, but he's still a lefty catcher with power, and that has to count for something. While he's probably only a 1.5 WAR player at this point, he's a serious upgrade over the prior catching situation in Atlantic City, which was on pace for negative 5 million WAR. This was extensively covered in an excellent podcast previously, so I won't belabor the point that they were playing a guy who didn't have a rating at catcher.[/list]

This is a nice little trade. Montreal probably couldn't get much more for Watts at this point in his career, and Atlantic City puts out its tire fire at very little cost.

Grades
Montreal
Talent: C-
Organizational: B+
Atlantic City
Talent: C-
Organizational: A-




Valencia/Huntsville
Valencia recevies:
RP Joe Hart

Huntsville receives:
RP Steve Metcalf

[list][*] Valencia picks up 26 year old reliever Joe Hart. Hart was a once highly touted prospect, but he's been a constant disappointment in Huntsville. The 26 year old has never been able to hit the broad side of a barn, and at 26 one wonders if he'll ever be able to. Should he pick up a a point of control, he may be a serviceable reliever. Were a miracle to occur and he gets a couple points, he may even turn into a setup type guy. His 1 rating for stamina doesn't help either.[/list]



[list][*] Metcalf is a 22 year old oddball. He has starter stuff, but tires entirely too rapidly to start. As such, he's a four pitch relief prospect. Some of those guys can be successful. He has a bit of work to reach his potential, and so may end up being a "what could have been" player like Hart.[/list]

I don't get this trade for Valencia. Yes their division is wide open, but they don't look like a team that should be trading youth for questionable vet help. Given Hart's age and track record, he's not an asset I'd look to pick up. Admittedly, Metcalf is an oddball, but at 22 he seems to have had a chance to give the Stars more value over the long run. Realistically, neither of these players looks to make a big impact.

Grades
Valencia
Talent: D+
Organizational: C-
Huntsville
Talent: C-
Organizational: B-




Huntsville/Greenville
Huntsville receives:
SP Esteban Benitez

Greenville receives:
RP Esteban Lopez

[list][*] Benitez has made a career as a reliable mid to back of the rotation starter. He's finally lost a bit due to age this year, but still is a nice depth piece. The Phantoms intend to use him from the pen, but I'm not sure he's got the skill set to succeed in that fashion.[/list]



[list][*] Esteban Lopez is a 25 year old with a ceiling as a righty specialist. His problem is that he hasn't developed in four years. He's not going to break that trend by sitting on Greenville's fall league roster either.[/list]

Could Greenville have gotten more for Benitez? I'm not sure. Probably not. Maybe they could have cashed in on his name/rep. Lopez will probably never pitch any meaningful innings for Greenville. Benitez could end up being a useful piece for Huntsville, but will probably just be mediocre in the pen and left off the playoff roster.

Grades
Huntsville
Talent: C-
Organizational: C+
Greenville
Talent: D+
Organizational: C-




Birmingham/Greenville
Birmingham receives:
CF Vicente Marin

Greenville receives:
CF Santiago Baez (prospect)
3 mil cash

[list][*] Marin is a righty, power hitting, swing and miss CF with a decent glove. He's 26 and cheap, which is nice. His ability to contribute offensively is stunted dramatically by his inability to get on base at any sort of reasonable clip. [/list]



[list][*] Although he's been a CF in the minors, Baez doesn't have the glove to play ML level centerfield. He has bumped since the trade but at the time was a righty slap hitter with a decent eye who projected to have no business on a big league roster. Due to his right-handedness, he still projects to be a quad A guy at best. He's 18 and has bumped twice though, so who knows?[/list]

This is a bad deal for Greenville. Marin is a cheap, major league caliber CF. He's a 1.5 WAR guy most years and has a pittance for a salary. There are several teams that would love to have him. At the time of the trade, Baez looked like a AAA guy. I know Greenville is in rebuild mode, but it helps to trade for assets that will one day be on the big league roster. Conversely, Birmingham made a great deal, and not just because they gave up next to nothing. They desperately needed a centerfielder, and had Juan Cruz playing out of position there. Now Cruz can slide over to left where he is a plus defender, and George Patrick can mercifully be put out to pasture.

Grades
Greenville
Talent: D
Organizational: D-
Birmingham
Talent: B-
Organizational: A+

I hate to end on a down note like that. Hopefully Baez bumps again and makes me look like an asshole. As always, if you disagree, don't worry too much. My team sucks, and more importantly, everyone has their own reasons for doing things which aren't always readily apparent. It's more fun if I'm wrong anyway. Hopefully I can get the early season deals in before the trade deadline deluge hits.

[bschr682]

MORE!!!!! Do more!!!!

[Ted]

MORE!!!!! Do more!!!!

I'm guessing this has something to do with the 5 Vancouver trades I haven't gotten to yet.

[bschr682]

Only 5? I have been slacking....

[agrudez]

I needed some positive reinforcement on the Galt trade - the more I think about it the more I regret it.

[nerfHerder]

I needed some positive reinforcement on the Galt trade - the more I think about it the more I regret it.

I hope he mashes for you..

[nerfHerder]

As always, great write up Ted!