Avery looks at Beggs for Hanscombe/Hernandez
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:29 pm
completed trade
BUF receives 26-year-old southpaw starter Li 'Sonny' Beggs
VAN receives
31-year-old southpaw starter Mick Hanscombe
and
20-year-old starter Juan Hernández
This deal is the only one that I know of that had Australian-born players sent both directions. That is Beggs and Hanscombe. But the jewel of this trade is Henrnandez, who was named #31 prospect in April. I don't judge prospects only by their rankings, but a top 50 always needs looking at.
This deal makes no sense for Buffalo, unless they think they have a chance to win their division this year, which the Drew Zodcast commentator Kyle Stevers ruled out; or they needed some salary space (Hanscombe has a slightly bad contract rising at $6.5M this season, 7.5M next season and a player option of 8.5M for 2026), which they do not. So that is not a terrible contract, although I prefer ones whose numbers go down as the years go by. If it is that bad a contract, we might ask who created it.
Beggs, a 9-6-6 (10-6-6 v lhb) is a soft-thrower (89-91) who pitched in the FL for Tucson for a few seasons before being traded to Vancouver last year. At first glance it seems like he might be the type of pitcher who Brett is looking for for the new Northwoods Outpost. He got off to a good start at 4-2 & 3.05 (0.97 WHIP) And 5 of his 6 starts for the Canucks were at home. Beggs was put in Buffalo's third spot in the rotation. And even though he has got off to a good start, tossing two very good games at Carolina and at Indy, I doubt he will keep that up all season, especially at home. The Bison play in a hitter's park, and a six movement is pretty poor (even though he is a lefty--because he gets no rise in points vs any side of the plater) and you couple that with a six control, and Beggs has Blah written all over him.
Meanwhile, Hanscombe did not pitch that poorly last season for the Bison. In 32 starts he he had a 3.77 FIP, and this with a .335 BABIP, and the Buffalo defense probably contributed to that. So Buffalo gets rid of a middling type pitcher with a higher salary than he is worth. But I don't see Beggs pitching all that better for Buffalo. So they saved some salary for a pitcher who is going to get jacked for the long ball in Buffalo if not all over the Frick. He has allowed 55 homers in 387 innings, and if he gives up half that many (27, 28) in 193ish innings, that is still a "home run pitcher". Last year he gave up 8 home runs in 80 innings. This year he has allowed 4 in 57, so he is below his average. He did keep New Orleans and Carolina without a home run in two starts so far with Buffalo, on the road.
I keep going back to Beggs, because I don't think he is anything near worth what Buffalo traded for him. When you give up a Beggs and get a Hernandez in return, that alone is a good deal. Vancouver will have to absorb some salary, and they have gads of room to do, unless they can flip Hanscombe.
Hernandez is a very low ethic guy, and he was off to a slow start at Buffalo's Triple A Brooks. But he did great at Double A last season, and so maybe a bit more work at Double A would have been good for him. Vancouver has him at Single A, and he will quickly move up to Double-A and probabky reach Triple-A by year's end; if not he canstart there next seasson. He just turned 20 so there is not a rush. Brett could even dump some points into his work ethic. Meanwhile he throws hard (96-98) and has three green pitches out of four. He has a 54 GB%. His potential ratings are 8-6-8. There is that boogey number 6 for movement, but I don't think that is atrocious for him. He has an 8 movement, which softens that. (And Beggs has a 6 control and 6 movement.) Hernandez certainly will be the type of pitcher that Brett thinks can thrive at the stadium. But to me, he is a prospect that could have brought in more than Beggs and a salary-drop in letting Hanscombe walk.
BUF receives 26-year-old southpaw starter Li 'Sonny' Beggs
VAN receives
31-year-old southpaw starter Mick Hanscombe
and
20-year-old starter Juan Hernández
This deal is the only one that I know of that had Australian-born players sent both directions. That is Beggs and Hanscombe. But the jewel of this trade is Henrnandez, who was named #31 prospect in April. I don't judge prospects only by their rankings, but a top 50 always needs looking at.
This deal makes no sense for Buffalo, unless they think they have a chance to win their division this year, which the Drew Zodcast commentator Kyle Stevers ruled out; or they needed some salary space (Hanscombe has a slightly bad contract rising at $6.5M this season, 7.5M next season and a player option of 8.5M for 2026), which they do not. So that is not a terrible contract, although I prefer ones whose numbers go down as the years go by. If it is that bad a contract, we might ask who created it.
Beggs, a 9-6-6 (10-6-6 v lhb) is a soft-thrower (89-91) who pitched in the FL for Tucson for a few seasons before being traded to Vancouver last year. At first glance it seems like he might be the type of pitcher who Brett is looking for for the new Northwoods Outpost. He got off to a good start at 4-2 & 3.05 (0.97 WHIP) And 5 of his 6 starts for the Canucks were at home. Beggs was put in Buffalo's third spot in the rotation. And even though he has got off to a good start, tossing two very good games at Carolina and at Indy, I doubt he will keep that up all season, especially at home. The Bison play in a hitter's park, and a six movement is pretty poor (even though he is a lefty--because he gets no rise in points vs any side of the plater) and you couple that with a six control, and Beggs has Blah written all over him.
Meanwhile, Hanscombe did not pitch that poorly last season for the Bison. In 32 starts he he had a 3.77 FIP, and this with a .335 BABIP, and the Buffalo defense probably contributed to that. So Buffalo gets rid of a middling type pitcher with a higher salary than he is worth. But I don't see Beggs pitching all that better for Buffalo. So they saved some salary for a pitcher who is going to get jacked for the long ball in Buffalo if not all over the Frick. He has allowed 55 homers in 387 innings, and if he gives up half that many (27, 28) in 193ish innings, that is still a "home run pitcher". Last year he gave up 8 home runs in 80 innings. This year he has allowed 4 in 57, so he is below his average. He did keep New Orleans and Carolina without a home run in two starts so far with Buffalo, on the road.
I keep going back to Beggs, because I don't think he is anything near worth what Buffalo traded for him. When you give up a Beggs and get a Hernandez in return, that alone is a good deal. Vancouver will have to absorb some salary, and they have gads of room to do, unless they can flip Hanscombe.
Hernandez is a very low ethic guy, and he was off to a slow start at Buffalo's Triple A Brooks. But he did great at Double A last season, and so maybe a bit more work at Double A would have been good for him. Vancouver has him at Single A, and he will quickly move up to Double-A and probabky reach Triple-A by year's end; if not he canstart there next seasson. He just turned 20 so there is not a rush. Brett could even dump some points into his work ethic. Meanwhile he throws hard (96-98) and has three green pitches out of four. He has a 54 GB%. His potential ratings are 8-6-8. There is that boogey number 6 for movement, but I don't think that is atrocious for him. He has an 8 movement, which softens that. (And Beggs has a 6 control and 6 movement.) Hernandez certainly will be the type of pitcher that Brett thinks can thrive at the stadium. But to me, he is a prospect that could have brought in more than Beggs and a salary-drop in letting Hanscombe walk.