Trade Review 2023 #4 - The Real Deals Begin

[Ted]

The first half of the season saw a fairly good number of trades, but nothing ground shaking. The biggest deal involved the aging man of steel and a patient, all or nothing 26 year old. Midsummer is a rather typical time for the real contenders to start to add high quality talent. The next handful of trades show the beginning of that trend.

Atlantic City/Lousiville
Atlantic City receives:
SP Gabriel Campos

Louisville receives:
3B Baba Lue (prospect)
RP Mark Little (prospect)
RP Roberto Ibarra (prospect)
SP Orlando Brahaghio (prospect)

When Lousiville traded for Gabriel Campos a year ago, they thought they were adding a second front line arm to pair with Walden for a one two punch that would cement their contender status for a few years. Instead, the wheels have fallen off. The bats have under-performed and the pitching has been worse. Campos never really got going with the Sluggers. He's been good, but nothing near the pitcher he was in California. He may be more of a pitch to contact guy, but with Lousville's superb defense, this shouldn't matter. As the Sluggers start to retool, the vet became available and the Gamblers pounced on him.

On July first, Atlantic city had a two game lead in their division on Carolina, but the defending champs wanted another top of the rotation pitcher to put behind Mingo Boone and Bertolameu Bolota. In Campos they got one. He has little to no decline at 33 years of age, and actually improved his control going into the postseason. Campos has an option for next season for 16 mil, that I imagine the Gamblers will pick up, so this isn't only a rental.

Louisville recoups a handful of prospects. 19 year old Babe Lue is a rare power hitting lefty third baseman. He's reasonably well developed at 19. He may not really have the range to be a third baseman, although his very steady hands and good but not great arm may make him adequate there. He also had has fairly poor outfield range, but could conceivably hold down a corner position with some reliability. His bat really isn't good enough to be a premier first baseman, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up in the field. At 25, Mark Little is really too old to be called a prospect, but he's never seen the majors. The left hander has the potential to be an okay middle relief type, or a fairy good left specialist if he can realize it, but at 25 he may not. 20 year old Roberto Ibarra throws really hard, kinda straight, and nowhere consistently. At this point he looks like a long relief or right specialist, but that could change. He'd be best served by picking up some movement and staying a bit wild, I think. 19 year old Orlando Bragagio is a project. The good new is that since being signed a few years ago as an international amateur, he's bumped his motion and control into the big league potential range. The bad news is that he's gained 10 mph in velocity and his stuff potential hasn't budged. He'll need better stuff to succeed in the bigs.

I like this deal for both teams. This is the kind of pickup I like to see, a likely playoff team getting better (as opposed to a wild card candidate mortgaging the future to try to get in the playoffs). Campos improved after the deal, going 5-4 with a 2.27 era in 107 innings. Louisville picked up some talent for down the road. Lue will contribute somewhere, and I suspect one of those pitchers will make the roster at some point. Not bad for a 33 year old pitcher with an option year left on his deal who wasn't getting it done for you.


As I'm out of nautical etymological facts, I'll have to move on to something else. I don't really have any lists compiled at the moment, so we'll just go with more word stuff. Medical terminology is ostensibly in Latin so that the terminology is universal. While this may have made sense in what is now ancient medicine, more likely the trend was continued so doctors could sound mysterious and arrogant, while also saying frightening or possibly insulting things without people knowing. With that in mind, there are lots of fun "doctor words" to go through.

Pannus- Any vascularized (has blood vessels) fold of tissue that overhangs another anatomical structure. One of the if not the most common places this is used is to describe someone's gut that has gotten out of control and now hangs down to mid thigh or past the knee. So congratulations, you now know the medical term for front-butt.


Las Vegas/Madison
Las Vegas receives:
1B Bruce Wayne

Madison receives:
P Brooks McHall
P Chris Dougherty (prospect)

If anyone remembers, Las Vegas's offense got off to a really slow start, and 1B Fernando Moreno, who was expected to take over for the departed Lucio Vazquez, was a major culprit. So sitting 3.5 games back on July first, Vegas sent a couple young arms to Madison for a savvy vet Bat (hah, see what I did there?). The problem is, Wayne has shown consistent decline in both contact and power over the last couple seasons, and wasn't doing much better in Madison. He did however, still sport a nifty .349 OBP and a slightly better BA than the underwhelming Moreno.

In return for its second bargain late FA trade bait pickup, Madison got 27 year old starter Brooks McHall. McHall is one of those guys that seems like a good baseball guy, has enough talent to be a back end starter, but has for some reason just never made it. Admittedly he never got the innings in Las Vegas, but his track record screams underachiever. Madison also got prospect reliever Chris Dougherty. Doughtery is 22, and if he finishes developing looks like a serviceable middle relief type guy. If I were Madison, I'd just stick him on the big league roster and let him finish developing in the pros. At 6/7/7, he probably doesn't get challenged much in AAA.

Wayne actually tore the cover off the ball over his brief 10 day stay in Las Vegas. He was moved in a whirlwind of Vegas deals that the next article will focus on. Madison wasn't going to get much for Wayne, and I think they made the best of it. McHall could be a late bloomer, probably not. I like Doughtery to hold down a middle relief job for half a decade or so.

Given how badly Vegas's offense was holding them back, I'm not sure I would have targeted Wayne. Their following series of deals made this point null. Well have to look at what they did with Wayne to see what we think of McHall and Doughtery leaving.

Sphygmomanometer - From the Greek words Sphinx and Manometry (measuring of pressure), a device that measures how close a sphinx is to exploding. Actually it's the name for any blood pressure taking apparatus (i.e. The cuff, the meter, the tubing, the inflation device in entirety). The sphinx machine would be way more epic, especially given that it implies we'd actually have sphinxes, with spontaneous explosions thereof apparently a concern. Also, who checks the sphinx pressure? Do you have to answers riddles? To get back to my old-timey-doctors-liked-to sound-fancy point, this word is nearly unpronounceable in English, which is why no one says it. Did anyone really think that people with thick German, Indian, or Chinese accents could ever say this intelligibly? Seriously, imagine typing to understand a Greek guy saying Sphygmo. Go Latin. Really made that easy.

California/Huntsville
California receives:
P Ricardo Ortiz (prospect)
P Luis Gracia (prospect)

Huntsville receives:
RF Doug Kendall

Well, at least the couple last trades were exciting. Huntsville really made over the roster, has an outfield injury, and was still finding itself at this point in the season. Kendall was a 26 year old switch hitter who had nothing to prove in AAA, but didn't have a spot on my team. Huntsville took a flyer and shipped two pitchers who will both need a couple bumps to make it to the big time. At 19 and 18, they both have a chance to do so, and probably won't. Kendall stank in Huntsville, but they really gave up next to nothing to try him out. At least neither guy has lumped for me so far. Ho-hum. Moving on.

Roentgenogram (Ront-jen-o-gram: Make the t and j soft almost like an sh) - This is the actual name for an Xray. No one says this. Next time you're at an urgent care for a probably sprained but possibly broken ankle, ask if they should take a Roentgenogram and see if they know what you're talking about.


Carolina/Vancouver
Carolina receives:
SP Enea Ginori

Vancouver receives:
Juan Mendez (prospect)
Millard McCoy (prospect)

By July 21, Carolina had pulled ahead of Atlantic City in the FLA, and things were looking bad for Vancouver, a preseason pick to contend for the division. Injuries and aging turned the Kraken staff into a work in progress, and they looked to shore up the rotation by adding a veteran arm. Grinori had been a model of consistency up until this year, with six straight seasons of FIP's between 3.78 and 4.10. His career worse first half in Vancouver is clearly a factor in the Mounties failure to achieve this year. His K/9 dropped by one and his BB/9 rose by one from very consistent averages of just under 3 and 7.5. Carolina clearly hoped he could right the ship with a scenery change, as his ratings do not appear to have declined at all.

This move could be looked at as the first of an upcoming series of moves indicating Vancouver decided it's window was closed. For Grinori, they got a couple young of pitchers. Juan Mendez is 22 and doesn't have big league potential. It would take a miracle for him to get to the bigs. McCoy on the other hand is 21 and really just needs a slight bump to have a shot a relieving in the MBWBA. His a bit old to expect improvement, and his ceiling may be righty specialist, but crazier things have happened.


Editor's note. It was pointed out that I misread Grinori's stats in Carolina. He actually did pretty well. So decent move all around.

(Old text: Grinori continued to suck for Carolina. Here's the real problem, he makes over 7 mil for two more years, and if those 8/8/6 ratings used to be closer to 9/9/7 than 7/7/5 (meaning that he has declined from near 9 to near 7 and you can't tell by his ratings) Carolina has a problem on its hands. I think Aaron knows he gambled and lost. He gave up next to nothing, but took on what may have been an ill advised risk. I don't know the state of his minors well enough to make a claim that he should have held out for something better, but that's the bullshit hindsight thing I want to say. Shit, they don't all work. Vancouver on the other hand makes a good deal if they are going into rebuild mode. Prospects are prospects, and when randomness is invoked, sometimes more is better.)

Purulent - This is the adjective form of pus (You know, that nasty white stuff that comes out of infected stuff). It's actually white because it's mainly made of dead white blood cells which have been consumed fighting the infection. The word purulent is important for doctors to know because it is the best way to document a pus containing discharge in written form. Doctors that aren't snotty have no problem writing down "bloody discharge" or "bloody leakage" (instead of sanguineous), but as you're about to see, "pussy discharge/leakage" just completely gives the wrong idea. A similar mistake, as once noted in a medical student chart describing someone who had scraped a knee and gotten an infection, can cause significant anatomical confusion, as I'm not exactly certain what "pussy knees" are. As such, it's a word you can say, but can't write.

The next couple trades are in the "deadline's coming up but why wait for it" vein. We're also going to skip a series of Vegas trades made at the same time as they will be the subject of review #5.

Indianapolis/Madison
Indianapolis receives:
SP Manuel Guerra

Madison receives:
1B José Martínez
1B Dusty Rhodes (prospect)

Despite decimating the league, Indy thought it needed to improve it's staff, so they went out and got Guerra. Guerra is a nice player, a guy with a upper 3's FIP who doesn't walk people. He was effective as a starter for a bad Madison team this season and is a rental so the risk is low.

Martinez has those years in Greenville that make you think maybe he can contribute. He can't. Stop dreaming. Rhodes on the other hand is an interesting player. I'm not sure how the game calculates/simulates having decent home run power but no gap power. Anyway, Rhodes is an elite contact righty with a decent eye, great avoid k, and decent speed. His only real position is first base, and it's hard to know now if he'll hit the ball hard enough to be a solution there. I guess if you wanted to punt defense you could stick him in left.

Guerra played well out of the pen. This is another type of deal I like. Bullpen depth is great in the playoffs. The price may have been a bit high, but Rhodes is weird enough that I can see not being sold on him. What I really can't believe is that Madison still has assets to move. Either way, solid deal.

Bacteriotherapy (also Fecal Microbiota Transplant/FMT) - This is the nice way of saying that we're gonna make you have diarrhea until you are empty, then fill you up with someone else's poop. Seriously. It's a poop transplant. This is a thing. It's actually pretty important. One of the drawbacks of antibiotic use is that it tends to kill all the normal bacteria that are in your intenstives, and sometimes the wrong stuff grows back. When it's a particular bacteria called Clostridium difficile, it can be extremely hard to eradicate. You have to kill it with other antibiotics. Anyone see the potential for vicious cycle here? Some people get recurrent infections that are so severe that they have to have part of their bowels removed. Sometimes that doesn't work. This actually works fairly well. Still, super gross. Antibiotic overuse is real and is a problem.


Yellow Springs/Hawaii
Yellow Springs receives:
LF Emory Sharp
2B Bryan Vogel

Hawaii receives:
2B Jose Martinez
C Cristobal Morales

Emory Sharp has a terrific glove in LF. He's a 30 2B, 20-25 HR guy. However, he's never gotten on base well, is getting older, and is owed 20 mil over the next two years. You can repeat the above about Vogel, except he has been miserable getting on base over his career, and only has a team option for next year.

Morales is a AAA catcher or a scrub backup. Martinez on the other hand is a solid if not spectacular fielding 2B, with above average contact and gap ability, acceptable power. He's 23. He was on pace for a two WAR year before YS traded him.

I'll be honest, I have no idea why Yellow Springs makes this deal. Sharp and Vogel were both having bad seasons before being traded, and that's a serious red flag for any player into his 30's regardless of whether the ratings show decline yet or not. Secondly, YS took on salary. The Nine couldn't conceivably compete this year and while they've started to put together an outstanding farm system, it's hard to see them being in contention at any time when either of these players could contribute. In addition, they lost a 2 WAR young second baseman. This just looks to be a bad deal for YS. For Hawaii, I didn't like the picking up El move, but dumping Sharp's deal makes up for it somewhat.

Sphenopalatine ganglineuralgia - A brain freeze. The palatine refres to the hard bony part of your facial bones over the roof of your mouth. The sphenoid bone is a structure behind this (towrds the back of your head) behind your nose. Ganglio refers to a group of nerves. Neuralgia is never pain. Again, it might be fun to go to a prompt care complaining of this (if you don't have to pay your bill and they aren't busy).


So that's it for the pre-deadline deals with the exception of the Hustlers overhaul, which is next on the docket.

[aaronweiner]

Ginori's only on the cap next year and then he's gone. Honestly, I was fairly happy with the way he pitched; his FIP after the trade was 3.89 and he wasn't all that bad. He's not worth what I'm paying him, but he's expiring money next year and all he cost me was a potential major league middle reliever.

I could have made a few more daring deals, but what I really needed this year was good health, and I definitely didn't get it.

[Ted]

Ginori's only on the cap next year and then he's gone. Honestly, I was fairly happy with the way he pitched; his FIP after the trade was 3.89 and he wasn't all that bad. He's not worth what I'm paying him, but he's expiring money next year and all he cost me was a potential major league middle reliever.

I could have made a few more daring deals, but what I really needed this year was good health, and I definitely didn't get it.

I misread. Thought the 4.9 was with you instead of Vancouver. Yeah, that makes it a solid, if unspectacular deal both ways.

[avery]

Yes, to one observer the trade "looks to be a bad one..." and everyone can voice his opinion, and I'm not one who cares much about what folks think about my trades or anything else I do. Last, not to take away from this interesting editorial and extremely well written piece that shows a lot of thought and effort... nevertheless trades cannot really be analysed as bad or good until much more time has passed after the trade. Sometimes years. Otherwise, it's a terrific series and one which I look forward to reading.

[avery]

In the cases of Sharp and Vogel (besides the fact I gain on defense with both players), I am not much interested in their ability to get on base but rather to drive runners in. If both drive in 80 to 90 runs I'll be satisfied. The taking on salary is hardly a big deal here, either.

[agrudez]

Last, not to take away from this interesting editorial and extremely well written piece that shows a lot of thought and effort... nevertheless trades cannot really be analysed as bad or good until much more time has passed after the trade. Sometimes years.

Disagree whole-heartedly. At any moment in time, a pick, prospect, player, lump of cash, etc. has a very distinct trade value associated with it. At any future moment, the trade value of any given asset can be different - if not wildly so - but that does not change the current value of an asset. As such, when acting in a present-tense vacuum, it is absolutely viable to judge a trade.

Whether or not a prospect booms or busts, a late 20s player randomly drops off a cliff, etc. 5 years from now should not at all impact how a trade should be perceived. Once the assets are exchanged, anything outside reasonable expectations (ie. over half of prospects fail, 35+ year olds will eventually fall off a cliff, etc.) is pure luck (either good or bad) and the only thing that matters from the GM perspective (ie. what was under their control independent of random factors) was whether or not at the present moment in time that the trade was executed that the franchise increased the value of their collective assets. Even if the superstar sell-off ends with all 4 top prospects busting, how can that possibly be the GM's fault? This isn't real life where so much is obfuscated, we have hard numbers with a mere +/- .04 deviation between ratings directly and undeniably in front of us. So if probabilistically at least 1, if not 2, of the 4 should've panned out then the GM just got unlucky. Still, at the moment of the trade, if the trade value of those 4 prospects was greater than that of the asset they exchanged for them, then organizationally, on that day, they were stronger for it. From the time of acquisition to flame out, in the case of all 4 prospects, there were surely myriad opportunities for the GM to capitalize on that increase in valuation (ie. by flipping them), but chose not to - which is, I guess, where they failed themselves in this hypothetical (though, again, they wouldn't have a crystal ball to know when to maximize value of their new assets, either).

That is why I like how Ted (sometimes) breaks out into dual grades. A team can "lose" a trade (ie. accept a lesser valued collection of assets in return relative to what they give) and have it still make "sense" for them in the context of their current franchise state (ie. trading a 7th SP for less than he is worth makes sense, selling top prospects for a tangible, but not other-worldly upgrade *can* make sense if you're in a championship hunt, etc.). Often these two grades will be equivalent, but there are definitely times where they can differ.

[avery]

TLTR

Go ahead, disagree.

[bschr682]

So that's it for the pre-deadline deals with the exception of the Hustlers overhaul, which is next on the docket.

So you are just skipping all the other trades I made besides the Vegas one?

[Ted]

So that's it for the pre-deadline deals with the exception of the Hustlers overhaul, which is next on the docket.

So you are just skipping all the other trades I made besides the Vegas one?

Whoops. Chose my words poorly. What I meant is the deals that were made prior to being right up against the deadline, the deadline deals. You actually get your own article. It will be number 6.

[Ted]

Yes, to one observer the trade "looks to be a bad one..." and everyone can voice his opinion, and I'm not one who cares much about what folks think about my trades or anything else I do. Last, not to take away from this interesting editorial and extremely well written piece that shows a lot of thought and effort... nevertheless trades cannot really be analysed as bad or good until much more time has passed after the trade. Sometimes years. Otherwise, it's a terrific series and one which I look forward to reading.

I think you and Kyle captured two valid viewpoints well. Any to be clear, I never mean to disparage a gm when I look on a trade negatively. I'm just one guy. Furthermore, we've all seen many situations where events develop in an entirely different direction than we expect. Frankly, the only reason I say any trades are good or bad is to give a reason to read and debate what would otherwise be a less interesting article. If everyone gets a gold star, who cares? I'm perfectly happy being wrong, and I hope no one ever takes anything personally.