Trade Review 2023 #2 - 1st half retooling

[Ted]

I'm gonna try something a bit different this year, as I'm looking at every trade after the season. We'll look at each from a winner and loser standpoint, try to say whether this was expected, and note an possible future change in who won or lost. I'll switch back to the old format next year. (Also, when I've got about five seasons of these under my belt, I'll be looking for a few owners to help me go back through the deals and pick out some good ones to talk about (like 10-15 at least). Somewhat multi part series round table discussion-y I hope. I'll be that the unexpected happened a lot and I'm sure I'll have to eat my words quite a few times).

Anyway, sorry for the delay, but hopefully these give you something additional to peruse during the remainder of the playoffs and the offseason.

This first section of the 2023 trade reports mostly details some first half minor moves as teams looked to address injuries and unexpected developments.

Yellow Springs/Las Vegas
Yellow Springs receives:
P Dillon Bell

Las Vegas receives:
N/A

Taken in the rule 5 draft by Madison, Bell was returned on opening day to the Hustlers as a roster casualty. The nine had expressed interest in the 30 year old quad A pitcher who in 3 seasons had only managed to throw 17.1 innings for the Hustlers. Just to show how magnanimous a gent he is, our beloved commissioner send Bell to the rebuilding Nine for free, where he might actually get some PT. Bell simply never had the stuff to stick in the bigs as a starter, but the Nine figured on their weak staff he might ear a bullpen shot.

Expected impact: None
Expected winner: good will to all men

Actual impact: Bell threw 96 innings of 3.86 era relief for the Nine, who while still a very bad team, elevated themselves from a league embarrassment this year. Bell definitely played a part in that.
Actual winner: Yellow Springs
Actual loser: None. Vegas wouldn't have used Bell anyway, and his .253 obabip and +4.50 FIP demonstrate this.

Going forward: Bell will be hard pressed to repeat this performance. He's on the wrong side of thirty, and while the Nine seem to be committed to playing good defense, it's hard to imagine consistency out of Bell. He could still throw some useful innings, but 4-4.5 era is more likely.

Loose cannon - Current usage: That guy's a loose cannon (referring to someone with erratic and dangerous behavior)
A loose cannon, weighing thousands of pounds, would crush anything and anyone in its path, and possibly even break a hole in the hull, thus endangering the seaworthiness of the whole ship.


Huntsville/New Orleans
Huntsville receives:
SS Antonio Sanchez

New Orleans receives:
P Jesus Vargas (prospect)
CF Alfredo Gonzalez (prospect)

Expected to have a much improved 2023 record, Huntsville limped out of the gate a bit and decided that it had to improve it's Nicholas Brody/Paul McKinney platoon at SS, who in a little less than half a season combined for -0.6 WAR. With that in mid they sent a couple of prospects to New Orleans for long time Crawdads platooner Sanchez. This is if anything a very minimal upgrade, and fits more into the role of, "Hey maybe this scrub will suck a bit less than these other scrubs."

In return, New Orleans acquired a couple prospects. Vargas is a 21 year old with a good change and solid splitter, but his fastball will need to improve to stick at the big league level. He could conceivably get a couple more MPH after 21 or gain a bit of movement which would help his case. Alfredo Gonazles is a moderate prospect that is easy to get excited about. While he's probably more of a corner outfielder given his subpar range for CF, the 19 year switcher hitter old had speed, modest to good pop, walks okay, makes alright contact. He's really a bump in any one category away from projecting as a starter. As is, probably looks more like a 4th outfielder.

Expected impact: Hard to see much for Huntsville. Maybe some down the road for New Orleans, but too early to tell.
Expected winner: New Orleans by a hair. Huntsville got an aging player that maybe is worth a marginal improvement for likely a couple role players that won't matter too much over the course of their careers.

Actual impact: Too early to call. Sanchez was worth -0.3 War for HSV, which I suppose is better than the extra -0.6 they were on pace for.
Actual winner: Probably a wash, unless one of the prospects bumps.

Going forward: New Orleans has some upside possibly. I feel like Kyle hemorrhages lottery ticket prospects like these for immediate very minor upgrades, but in reality this trade will likely never matter.

Pipe down - Current usage: Pipe down over there!
A signal on the bosun's pipe to signal the end of the day, requiring lights (and smoking pipes) to be extinguished and silence from the crew.

Hawaii/Carolina
Hawaii receives:
IF Cesar Oriz (prospect)

Carolina receives:
OF Danny Vermin

The Kraken had a star 1B get injured and moved an overpaid LF to 1B, opening up an outfield position, and flipped a SS prospect to Hawaii for Vermin. At 35 and in decline, Vermin has little pop and can't be expected to do much with thee bat. He still has a tremendous LF glove, and that alone can probably make starting him worthwhile as an injury replacement.

Ortiz is a 24 year old SS with no hitting talent to speak of. He does field SS and 2B at an above average level. Still, he really doesn't have the talent to be on a big league club.

Expected impact: Carolina gets a better than replacement level performance at LF while waiting for health. Hawaii gets a AAA SS
Expected winner: Carolina sort of. It's really not a bad deal for Hawaii either because Vermin doesn't matter.

Actual impact: Vermin somehow hit the cover off the ball for almost 2 months in Carolina
Actual winner: Carolina

Going forward: Neither of these players has a future

Pooped - Current usage: Man, I'm pooped. That was a lot of work.
1. Swamped by a high, following sea. (This would often require round the clock re-rigging of the sails, manning of the bilge pumps as the high, violent sea made sailing both difficult an life threatening)
2. Exhausted.
Poop deck
A high deck on the aft superstructure of a ship.


Hawaii/Louisville
Hawaii receives:
CF Kal El

Louisville recevies:
1B Jorge Caballero
P Jorge Paz (quad A)
P Javier Trujillo (prospect)
C Matthieu Bruno (minor leaguer)
P David Dubois (minor leaguer)
P Dale Williams
P Marc Jefferson (minor leaguer)

Hawaii expected to contend to the division this year. They may have felt they were the frontrunner. Long John Galt for the year changed all of that. In an attempt to recoup some offense they traded for former superstar CF El. At this point in his career, Kal has lost a good deal of his power, and is only an adequate CF. He still hits righties well, but is no longer an elite player.

The Sluggers get 1B slugging Caballero in return. Caballero doesn't make contact well enough to be an elite player, but he walks well (career .340 OBP prior to the trade, better now after this season's numbers). They also lose Trujillo, who at 25 and probably not quite good enough to start, could benefit from not having to manage his stamina in the pen. 7/7/7(8) as a starter, he could turn into an 8/7/8 three pitch guy in the pen, which is probably a solid middle reliever.

Expected impact: I hate to be a downer, but I really hated this deal for Hawaii. El is no longer an elite hitter. He might be a slight upgrade over Caballero in a 1 for 1 type situation, and maybe is a better hitter than CF Miranda, who moved to left to make room for him, but the move gives up a cheaper young 1B for an aging former star who probably can't play CF much longer and will almost certainly produce less and cost more over the next few years. It also creates a log jam in the OF. Sure, Hawaii still has Wilcox to play 1B, but he's likely not as good as Caballero. Can you really tell me a 1B/DH/CF/LF/RF of Caballero/Wilcox/Miranda/Sharp /Stuart is worse than Wilcox/Stuart/EL/Lara/Miranda? At best, the trade makes the offense a wash, and they got older and more expensive doing it.
Expected winner: Louisville

Actual impact: El struggled in Hawaii, Caballero flourished in Louisville. Part of this is park effect. Neither team had success this year.
Actual winner: Hard to see this ending up not a Sluggers win.

Going forward: Caballero walks, plays decent D at first and hits for power. Looks like an everyday player for the sluggers for some time. Trujillo maybe is a reliever. El will soon be a candidate for the all "Keep gettin' dem checks" team.

Scuttlebutt - Current Usage: Synonym for gossip
1. A barrel with a hole in used to hold water that sailors would drink from. By extension (in modern naval usage), a shipboard drinking fountain or water cooler. (Where of course like any other water cooler/drinking fountain, people stood around and gossiped)

[agrudez]

Can't disagree about the Sanchez trade. I saw a career OPS near .800 in over half a season's worth of ABs when I acquired him and even though I assumed they were mostly all against LHP (since, you know, I can't actually check that for real for some reason) I still thought I might be getting a potential diamond in the rough. Needless to say, the fact that I felt the need to grab Reyes later in the year confirms that this deal was a mistake and at this point I'm not even platooning him against LHP (where he only hit .668 this year) in the playoffs. I doubt I miss anything in Vargas, but Gonzalez's defensive ratings have actually improved post-trade (a relative anomaly). I felt alright moving on since he was a corner OF with a CF bat, but now that he might at least be a marginal defensive CF with a CF bat, it doesn't look great for me.

[Ted]

Can't disagree about the Sanchez trade. I saw a career OPS near .800 in over half a season's worth of ABs when I acquired him and even though I assumed they were mostly all against LHP (since, you know, I can't actually check that for real for some reason) I still thought I might be getting a potential diamond in the rough. Needless to say, the fact that I felt the need to grab Reyes later in the year confirms that this deal was a mistake and at this point I'm not even platooning him against LHP (where he only hit .668 this year) in the playoffs. I doubt I miss anything in Vargas, but Gonzalez's defensive ratings have actually improved post-trade (a relative anomaly). I felt alright moving on since he was a corner OF with a CF bat, but now that he might at least be a marginal defensive CF with a CF bat, it doesn't look great for me.

Yeah, but if you come out behind in this one it's like losing a $1.00 bet. This isn't a high stakes deal by any means. I think Sanchez was probably worth a shot given the production you were getting.

[aaronweiner]

Getting Vermin to play well offensively was pretty lucky, but based on my options I had to do something. Not even sure I'm bringing back Randy Jackson this year at the league minimum.