Trade Review 2022 #5 Deadline edition - Finished

[recte44]

Ted, you forgot the biggest benefit to the Hoffman trade in grading it. Not only did I gain a really nice prospect in Medina, the financial gain by losing Hoffman resulted directly in Vegas signing the best pitcher in baseball to a six year extension (Swanson).

[crobillard]

Prospects are incredibly overrated in this league. There are so many guys that were supposed to be studs and fizzled out quickly. That's why teams give up so much for a veteran they want. It's a sure thing. I know that some teams have a lot of fun playing the what if game with prospects and assembling their future but the fact is you need to have a backup for your backups because there are so many players who do not pan out.

This is good to know. It may be then that as I get a better feel for this myself, grades will change. Bear with me for now

I did some analyses a long time ago on prospects in IFA and the draft with 3+ stars or higher that spanned a few seasons. I'm pretty sure the over-arching conclusion was that 35-40% of IFAs and HS draftees and 50-60% of college draftees developed 90% or better.

So, statistically, if you trade 2 4 star 18 years olds for one fully developed 28 year old then you have a 20-30% chance of getting "something for nothing" (both prospects flame out), a 70-80% chance of having "equivalent exchange" (one prospect develops) and only a 12-16% of "winning" (both prospects develop).

The team acquiring the veteran is always the risk averse party. There are obviously tons of extenuating circumstances that require teams to sell vets and collect prospects, but the proposition is always a difficult to mitigate gamble. That is why so many teams get mired in mediocrity - they can't defy the probability curve of prospect for vet exchanges. There are definitely scouting techniques to help your house odds, though.

This is such a cool post. I'd be very interested if any of that has changed, but I'm sure that was a lot of work. It makes me think about my Garcia deal and how that could turn out. In addition, the Archer deal comes to mind some with acquiring Nightmare. That's very interesting though and it would be cool to look back on trades to see if a prospect going to a new team had any significant impact on their development. I'm not sure if they would code that into OOTP intentionally, but it's something to think about.

[recte44]

One thing I love about the player development in this league is how minimized the lumping is. I'm in and have been in other leagues (GUBA comes to mind) where prospect lumping is out of control because the talent pool of the league is completely out of whack.

[Ted]

Ted, you forgot the biggest benefit to the Hoffman trade in grading it. Not only did I gain a really nice prospect in Medina, the financial gain by losing Hoffman resulted directly in Vegas signing the best pitcher in baseball to a six year extension (Swanson).

Yeah Recte, I wasn't sure how to grade this. Clearly the trade was made to sign Swanson. If I incorporate the Swanson signing into the deal, it's an "A" easy, but I consider that a separate transaction. So it gets a B+ because it's a good financial move. I don't like Medina as much has you do (primarily his glove), but I'll admit I have trouble rating our middle infielders. They all hit so poorly that I'm probably underestimating the ones that even can put up .250/.300/.350

[Ted]

One thing I love about the player development in this league is how minimized the lumping is. I'm in and have been in other leagues (GUBA comes to mind) where prospect lumping is out of control because the talent pool of the league is completely out of whack.

I've noticed this. I agree it's nice. I'm used to 50% or more of the 5 star prospects lumping all the way to one or even half star. We have a lot of marginal players bump as well. (at least in the 1.5 seasons I've seen)

[Ted]

for finished

[Ekcut]

Well done!

To follow up on the Greenville trades, as insignificant as they are.

Ireland will NOT be tendered a qualifying offer and will head to FA.

Bob White is asking for $10milx 5yrs so he is being politely told to bugger off,
Ruiz won't even talk extension with me (politely telling me to bugger off)

Ray Smith is the only player to stick around, and seeing how much I lovey utility guys, I'm ok with that!

Excellent analysis, although it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how insignificant these deals were

[Ted]

Well done!

To follow up on the Greenville trades, as insignificant as they are.

Ireland will NOT be tendered a qualifying offer and will head to FA.

Bob White is asking for $10milx 5yrs so he is being politely told to bugger off,
Ruiz won't even talk extension with me (politely telling me to bugger off)

Ray Smith is the only player to stick around, and seeing how much I lovey utility guys, I'm ok with that!

Excellent analysis, although it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how insignificant these deals were

Thanks man. Also a belated nice to see you again. You were in charge of the London Bishops in the Deuce I think for about a year after I joined Recte's bunch of misfits about 10 actual years ago.

[agrudez]

Ben, please find it in your heart to give Ted at least 3x normal point for this. Great job, man. I really liked the updated nautical tidbits - made me read the whole thing over again a second time to find them, haha.

[Ted]

Ben, please find it in your heart to give Ted at least 3x normal point for this. Great job, man. I really liked the updated nautical tidbits - made me read the whole thing over again a second time to find them, haha.

Hey may have already. I have some bonus points or discretionary points, or something already. And in the future I'll break these things into reasonable chunks so Ben doesn't have to figure out what they are worth.

[avery]

Well done!

To follow up on the Greenville trades, as insignificant as they are.

Ireland will NOT be tendered a qualifying offer and will head to FA.

Bob White is asking for $10milx 5yrs so he is being politely told to bugger off,
Ruiz won't even talk extension with me (politely telling me to bugger off)

Ray Smith is the only player to stick around, and seeing how much I lovey utility guys, I'm ok with that!

Excellent analysis, although it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how insignificant these deals were

I like Garza better than Smith, and Mendoza will be a short term solution, possibly very short term, so I'm satisfied.

[Ekcut]

Well done!

To follow up on the Greenville trades, as insignificant as they are.

Ireland will NOT be tendered a qualifying offer and will head to FA.

Bob White is asking for $10milx 5yrs so he is being politely told to bugger off,
Ruiz won't even talk extension with me (politely telling me to bugger off)

Ray Smith is the only player to stick around, and seeing how much I lovey utility guys, I'm ok with that!

Excellent analysis, although it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how insignificant these deals were

Thanks man. Also a belated nice to see you again. You were in charge of the London Bishops in the Deuce I think for about a year after I joined Recte's bunch of misfits about 10 actual years ago.

I sure was! The Deuce was my introduction to online baseball. I still use the London Bishops for most fantasy leagues of any sport that I can choose my team name despite not creating that name, just inheriting it. Sort of my homage.
The people involved with that league are true pioneers. The work involved with the importing of lineups, creation of the website, in particular the free agent bidding was amazing. The GBC wasn't a hobby, it was a lifestyle! i'm honored to be a small cog in that organization!
But you are wrong...I think that was almost 15-18 years ago!! Feel old yet?

[7teen]

Well done!

To follow up on the Greenville trades, as insignificant as they are.

Ireland will NOT be tendered a qualifying offer and will head to FA.

Bob White is asking for $10milx 5yrs so he is being politely told to bugger off,
Ruiz won't even talk extension with me (politely telling me to bugger off)

Ray Smith is the only player to stick around, and seeing how much I lovey utility guys, I'm ok with that!

Excellent analysis, although it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how insignificant these deals were

Thanks man. Also a belated nice to see you again. You were in charge of the London Bishops in the Deuce I think for about a year after I joined Recte's bunch of misfits about 10 actual years ago.

I sure was! The Deuce was my introduction to online baseball. I still use the London Bishops for most fantasy leagues of any sport that I can choose my team name despite not creating that name, just inheriting it. Sort of my homage.
The people involved with that league are true pioneers. The work involved with the importing of lineups, creation of the website, in particular the free agent bidding was amazing. The GBC wasn't a hobby, it was a lifestyle! i'm honored to be a small cog in that organization!
But you are wrong...I think that was almost 15-18 years ago!! Feel old yet?

The GBC was my introduction to online baseball. I think I joined it in the season 1999. That time frame of 15-18 years ago seems about right. I think I was just entering college at the time. I've joked with my wife several times that my hobby of online baseball pre-dates our relationship. haha

I can still remember printing off the draft lists and scouring the report at HS basketball games I was attending, trying to generate a draft list.