BUF-LV: How the West, er, Pacific Was Won

[agrudez]

LV receives:
SP Mike Swanson
SP Steve Hoffman
SS Fred Hernandez

BUF receives:
SP Ignacio Rodriguez
OF Edgar Ordonez
SP Dieter Hartinger
2B Ernie Stauffer
SP Juan Hernandez
Anastasio Vazquez

In case you haven’t read my comments in the completed trades thread, I’ll give a quick BLUF - Matt is a criminal. For context, I’m going to rank the players involved in this deal in terms of trade asset value:

Swanson>>>>>I. Rodriguez>Hoffman=F. Rodriguez>>>Ordonez>Hernandez>>>Hartinger=Vazquez>>>Stauffer

So BUF gave up BY FAR the best piece in the deal AND 3 of the 4 best pieces in the deal AND took on 44.6M in relative dead money over the next two seasons. You can argue that Hartinger can now be flipped (and that certainly needs to be BUF’s prime directive – along with jettisoning Felix - before the deadline), but even with an improved season thus far (after having nowhere to go but up after a 1.3 WAR 2020 and an injury in 2021 that cost him the season) that has him on pace for roughly 3 WAR, what exactly is the market for him considering the acquiring team would need to pay their newly acquired #3/4 SP 11.2M next year?

The one saving grace (that a few people mentioned in the thread) is that Swanson may have been asking for too much in an extension, but I’d counter with this: who cares? If you have nothing to play for in the short term you have to do whatever you can to maximize what assets you have that can supplement your long term. Even if it meant getting a C-level prospect instead of a B-level prospect for a Hoffman or a Felix just to save enough cash to drive the Brinks truck to Swanson’s house this offseason you have to do it because with a contract extension in place he gets you two As and a B by himself instead of… the alternative.

Now, with the formalities of me being a dick out of the way, let’s dissect the individual pieces of the trade. For simplicities sake, I think you can break this trade into 4 separate deals.

1) Swanson for I. Rodriguez and Edgar Ordonez
2) Hoffman for Juan Hernandez
3) F. Rodriguez for Vazquez
4) Hartinger and Stauffer for free

Let me be clear, even with these arbitrary delineations, BUF loses all 4 components. That is to say, I did not try to massage the breakout to fit the narrative I’ve already set forth – I didn’t need to.

Trade 1:
Swanson is the best pitcher in the league. Since coming into the league 9 years ago, there has been only 1 season where he wasn’t on the top 10 leaderboard for basically every pitching category – 2017 (when he missed half of it due to injury). He just turned 30 years old, hasn’t showed any signs of decline yet, is extremely durable (as mentioned above) and, while set to hit FA, is the epitome of “worth whatever you give him” in a contract. Needless to say, a team like BUF, with a .411 winning percentage and the 16th best prospect pool by OSA needs to maximize his value in any trade they contemplate to have hopes of contending in the medium term. So what did they get?

I. Rodriguez is a 19 year old flame-thrower that has an incredible repertoire, a 101 MPH fastball, decent stamina for a starter, off the charts leadership ability and a fantastic developmental curve (nearly fully developed and already in the majors). Those are the good things. Now for the bad - he can’t keep the ball in the park. This is the first year that his MOV rating is fully developed and in 75 IP in AAA he managed only a 1.2 HR/9 and, thus far, in 38.1 IP in the majors, he has posted a jaw dropping 2.1 HR/9. Now, you may be saying to yourself, that is a really small sample size, Kyle, and stop being a jerk-off, Kyle, but that is about half a season’s worth of IP between the two levels and if we assume that a 1.2 in AAA translates to at least a 1.5 in the majors then he ends up with a weighted 1.7 HR/9 in 113.33 IP. At a certain point, the excuses have to melt away and be replaced with genuine concern.

For a current comparison, I look to Jose Leon whom has the same CON+MOV splits as Rodriguez with plausibly equitable and at least close STU splits as what Rodriguez will have at full potential. If you take out his rookie season where he pitched from the ‘pen for a small sample size, he has posted a career 1.2 HR/9, 115 ERA+ and an average of 3.6 WAR/season. That is a good, solid #3 pitcher. Now you may argue that Rodriguez will get more K’s – and that may be true; however, I’d also argue he’ll give up more HRs… not only because of his track record, but also because Leon has fluctuated between ‘7’ and ‘6’ MOV at times throughout his career so he is likely closer to ‘140’ on the 1-250 scale than ‘120’, where Rodriguez hasn’t shown that potential yet. So, even if we up Leon’s career 8.7 K/9 to a 9.5, if we also up his career 1.2 HR/9 to (assuming Rodriguez actually calms down at some point and can match his AAA production in the majors) to 1.5 HR/9 (with an equal 2.3 BB/9 for argument’s sake) then you are looking at a projected 4.02 FIP – well above Leon’s career 3.72. Let’s say we get even more generous with Rodriguez’s K numbers and go to a 10 K/9 (which, if he put that up over a career, would put him as 24th all-time for pitchers and easily top 10 for starters) then his FIP would only come down to a 3.9 – still above Leon’s mark. The fact is, you can’t overcome hemorrhaging HRs with high K rates. If my prediction (and the evidence thus far through his AAA and ML career) hold up, Rodriguez is going to be an extremely flashy (who doesn’t love strikeouts!), extremely expensive (since it is based on star ratings) #3 SP.

For Ordonez, he has all the makings of a player that should project to be a solid line-up contributor. A LHB with +splits vs. RHP, solid CON+POW, decent defense at his position (albeit a low priority one). It’s a concern any time you acquire a prospect coming off a long injury – especially after having so many small nagging ones throughout his career thus far (even one termed “chronic” which scares the hell out of me – shades of Eric Rouse), but he seems to have escaped from it unscathed in his ratings and it will be interesting to see how he performs in Buffalo. If he can pull an .800 OPS with single digit +ZR in LF then he can be a 2+ WAR player. Unfortunately for him; however, I don’t think fans were clamoring for a 2+ WAR LFer in a Swanson deal.

Trade 2:
Hoffman is 33 years old, makes a bunch of money for 2 more seasons after this an (as I’d know better than anyone) poised to shatter one of his glass appendages at any moment; however, the fact remains he IS healthy NOW and still has true ace ratings – heck, in an injury shortened season in 2021 he STILL managed 5.7 WAR. That makes it a hard market for him – the prototypical player where teams focus on the negatives instead of the positives. Heck, I’ll admit myself that my first inclination upon seeing him on a block was that I didn’t want to pay a player on my DL 12M for the next 2 years. That said, for a team in win-now mode he is a difference maker and *something* should be expected in return for that.

Enter Hernandez. While his ratings are decent (potential #4 SP) and probably in-line with what you might expect to get for Hoffman considering his drawbacks, he is also 18 years old with a ton of development to do and a very low work ethic. Add in the potential that his STU is on the needle’s edge of ‘6’ and ‘7’ (since it fluctuated once already this year) and you start to wonder about his long term viability. If he were 24 years old, near full developed and about to hit the majors with the same POT I’d probably point the needle in BUF’s favor here, but since he isn’t I have to go the other way.

Trade 3:
I was obviously really harsh with trade 1, but I at least admit there is *some* room for differing opinions on I. Rodriguez. In this case; however, I think it is pretty cut and dry. Hernandez is 26 years old, has one of the most team friendly extensions in the league for the next 3 seasons already in place, plays a quality SS (including +19.3 ZR over the last year and a half), has a solid bat for his position and has averaged near 3 WAR the past 2.5 years. This is EXACTLY the type of player BUF needs to be ACQUIRING… NOT dealing! And what did they get to show for it? Do you guys *really* want me to discus Anastasio Vazquez? I mean, I just got done butchering I. Rodriguez for his 6 MOV as a RHP – so you probably can expect that I don’t anticipate ML success (or even a real ML career) in Vazquez’s future.

Trade 4:
I mentioned in the BLUF that there is a possibility the team can flip Hartinger for *something* and clearly that needs to be done ASAP – if for no other reason than so the Bison don’t have to pay him any more salary than they have to. The same, most assuredly, cannot be said about Stauffer – whom will surely be an anchor on the team’s payroll moving forward. Even if you do flip Hartinger for *something* and even if that *something* is better than I would personally expect it to be (a type C level prospect – maybe someone slightly better than Vazquez) you still are on the hook for nearly 20M to just Stauffer over the next 1.5 years and more money to Hartinger for every day he is on the roster.

All in all, clearly (in case you didn’t notice), I’m not a fan. I’m sure the new GM in BUF felt a good deal of pressure to deal his veterans considering his record and desolate prospect pool – and Swanson’s expiring contract probably looked like a time bomb of sorts (even though, as pointed out, it didn't need to be). I can also see how one could be easy to get mesmerized by Rodriguez’s STU and forget (or never have found out to begin with) the long lineage of failed ‘6’ MOV RHPs throughout league history (or conflate the success of a few '6' MOV LHPs and forget that they play by different rules). So while I am certainly not backing off my initial assertions, I am at least allowing for some understanding... until you get to the fact that he dealt Hernandez and took back salary anchors. Instead of continuing to pile on, I’ll end with a wish of luck to both sides, and a promise to (begrudgingly) console Bornac when he happens to stumble upon this deal.

[avery]

Say Hoffman gets injured for 12 months tomorrow... Is it a fair deal then?

[agrudez]

Say Hoffman gets injured for 12 months tomorrow... Is it a fair deal then?

Is that how you judge trades? Purely in retrospect? Whether Hoffman blows his elbow out tomorrow or pitches until he is 40 with no injury concerns, the fact is that he has a certain trade value that can be capitalized on today. His is obviously mitigated by his propensity to injury and I get that - heck, that was the 'portion' of the trade I was least harsh on.

To answer what I *think* is the heart of your question. If you took Hoffman out of the trade entirely I still wouldn't think that balances the scales - no. You'd accomplish that better by taking Hernandez and the LV salary anchors out, but I'd still come back to my hesitance about 6 MOV RHPs.

[avery]

I agree Matt is a crook.

[crobillard]

The more I look at that deal, the uglier it looks. Highway robbery.

[mrbornac]

I think Recte has proven to be an evil genius. Destroy my 2017 championship season, tweak finanances until I cry uncle, and then fleece his hand picked replacement owner for the best pitcher the league has known since Nebraska. Game. Set. Match.