Trade Review 2023 #7 - Sandcastle

[Ted]

There's one other deal we will get to first, but Leon Sandcastle to Tuscon is the one that matters. Tuscon clearly got tired of waiting and decided to load up. I'll also take a look again at the Labrie deal, and the state of affairs for Tuscon and their division, but first...

Madison/Calgary
Madison receives:
P Brad Welsh (currently DL)
RF Juan Rojas (R)

Calgary receives:
P Justin Alexander, Jr.

Somehow, Madison is still trading. Justin Alexander un-lumped just in time for the Wolves to trade him for the second time this season. In return they get Brad Welsh's corpse and prospect Juan Rojas. Welsh wasn't very good in Calgary this year and then got hurt. Rojas is 22 and underdeveloped and looks like a minor leaguer for life.

Calgary needed to replace Welsh. Enter Alexander. He stank up the joint for the Marauders after the deal. He is signed for next year and he's equally likely to lump to the point of uselessness ans he is to rebound and be a solid back end of the rotation guy.

This is a simple trade that makes sense. Neither pitcher had value to Madison at the time of the deal, and they unload salary. Calgary took a good gamble but lost. Oh well. Moving on.


Montreal/Tuscon
Tuscon receives:
CF Leon Sandcastle
RP Enrique Rivera

Montreal receives:
LF Nathan Grimes
SP Denny Marino - (prospect)
SP Leon Flores- (prospect)
OF Jorge Rodriguez - (prospect)

There is no argument about the quality of Leon Sandcastle. He is on the short list for the best player in the MBWBA discussion. He is owed A LOT of money, but only through age 33, and even with an age 30 lump, he's probably still an all star. The coward in me is afraid of any player over the age of 27, the realist any batter 29 or older, but Sandcastle's as good of a bet as you can get. Enrique Rivera is hard to evaluate. He's got a good track record out of the pen, but he doesn't impress the scouts. I think he's probably a good bullpen piece if he continues to be used the same way.

Montreal felt it's star fading last year, and finally went the rebuild route for real in trading Sandcastle. While painful, that's probably not a bad move as their division is tough at the moment. They've certainly made the most of their deals (Take a look at their farm. I am murderously envious) and the Sandcastle deal is no different. Denny Marino is as good of a pitching prospect as you see move. He has absolutely tremendous stuff, throw reasonably hard for a 19 year old, and hasn't lumped his control or movement at all while increasing his velocity since 2019. He can probably sustain a lump to movement of control and still be a number two. Most likely he's an ace or 1A. Leon Flores is another beautiful pitching prospect. If he bumps his stuff one time with his velocity increases that are expected after age 18, he's a 1A. Jorge Rodriguez is a leadoff hitter in the making. Great contact, lefty, fast as hell, walks enough, I honestly don't know why he wasn't in the majors this year. I don't care if he's 19. He's ready for at least part time duty. Nathan Grimes is a surprisingly good Right handed half of a platoon.

Look, you can make the argument that Tuscon just traded it's best three prospects for one player. Three blue chip prospects in the top 26 in the league. They do have more left, including a power hitting right fielder and another 1A/number two type starter, but man that's alot. It's cringe-worthty. I get it, it's Sandcastle. This may be an even trade, but I'm not the kind of guy who could ever pull the trigger on this. The saving grace is that all of these guys are 19 or under, and far from sure things because of that. This very well may be the cost of a guy like Sandcastle, while still in his prime. To really understand this deal, you have to look at what Tuscon looks like after the deal.

First off, they went 20-15 after the deal for a .571 winning percentage. Over 162 games, that's a 92 win pace. They will return their entire offense next season, and it's a good one. Sandcastle, Labrie Jr, ROY Wellington, Timmy Tim, Freemont, Geurroro, Sutherland and company can hit with anyone in the league. Their defense is solid. Tully Crow and Jose Cavazos are good number 2's but neither is an ace. They have solid to good 3,4,5 guys after them. The pen is thin.

I was going to look at how often 92 wins would have won the FLP, but can't figure out how. Chances are it's not often (would have this year though). Tuscon is in much better shape than I thought, and this may end up being a great deal for them. Yes, they may have mortgaged the future, but the present is better than I thought. Vegas is still strong, Calgary is getting old and may look to rebuild. Seattle is strong. It will be tough, but Tuscon beat these teams down the stretch.

Here's what I don't like. Calgary's pitching is old. They will be worse in a year or two. Ditto for Vegas. Seattle is in their prime now which means 3 years down the road they aren't as strong. When would those prospects have been ready? Oh yeah, about 3 years.

On the other hand, these are good owners who retool on the fly well and don't go full rebuild often. I understand Tuscon's impatience. Who knows what things will look like in a few years? My only advice is put the rest of the chips on the table. Deal what you have left in the farm for an ace and either another 1A or a bullpen. No reason to hold onto that farm when you're clearly going for it now, and have a 2-3 year window before Sandcastle and Labrie get old. Tuscon wins the Cajones of the Year award. I'm definitely rooting for them. In that division, and with their record of frustration, if you don't you're an asshole.

[Ted]

Sorry about the lack of links at the end. I just ran out of gas.

[agrudez]

The Sandcastle deal didn't make particular sense for either side to me, which may mean that it actually makes sense for both? I'm not sure, I've never been great at philosophy. On one head, MON dealt (arguably) the best player in the league, still in his prime, for a bunch of teenagers (talented as they are - they are intrinsically riskier) despite being a team with a decent amount of talent that was having a down year, imo.

On the other hand, Tucson was a squad that didn't *feel* like they were ready to push the chips all in yet and did so. They were a handful of games under .500 when they made their deals and finished strong; however, even a full season pace of their August and September records wouldn't have gotten them in the playoffs this year and now they are pushed against the cap so won't likely be able to improve much beyond their current state without trading the rest of their prospects - which, at this point, might actually make the most sense since they are all teenagers as well.

[Ted]

The Sandcastle deal didn't make particular sense for either side to me, which may mean that it actually makes sense for both? I'm not sure, I've never been great at philosophy. On one head, MON dealt (arguably) the best player in the league, still in his prime, for a bunch of teenagers (talented as they are - they are intrinsically riskier) despite being a team with a decent amount of talent that was having a down year, imo.

On the other hand, Tucson was a squad that didn't *feel* like they were ready to push the chips all in yet and did so. They were a handful of games under .500 when they made their deals and finished strong; however, even a full season pace of their August and September records wouldn't have gotten them in the playoffs this year and now they are pushed against the cap so won't likely be able to improve much beyond their current state without trading the rest of their prospects - which, at this point, might actually make the most sense since they are all teenagers as well.

I admit the you're right about the teenagers.

I think Montreal looked at their division and said, screw it, I'll reload. They've been quietly dealing off usable vets for a season or two now, getting good returns on them as they can still contribute. I think the deal makes sense only because it continues a trend. They could I guess go the Stever route and immediately trade all the prospects they had acquired and be really good again, but this is okay took. I think the bad thing would have been standing pat, or trying to reload through FA.

Tuscon looks better the longer I look at it. They really should find someone who wants to move an ace and just throw the rest of their farm at that guy's pitching staff though. Future is now for them.

[aaronweiner]

Check my previews: for years I've been writing about Tucson's impatience. If you're gonna go all-in, though, fuck yes, go all in on Sandcastle.

[agrudez]

Check my previews: for years I've been writing about Tucson's impatience. If you're gonna go all-in, though, fuck yes, go all in on Sandcastle.

They're not all-in yet, though - and I'm not sure they have pot odds for the short term yet, either. If there is another shoe to drop (Martinez+Gonzalez for a SP) then I'll understand - and quite frankly it would be hypocritical for me, at that point, to criticize (since Ted just coined that type of move "the Stever route") them.

[c-mitch]

It's Sandcastle.

Love him.

[JohnC]

As good as Sandcastle is, I didn't have the supporting cast needed to properly contend. The same core group of players had been together for several seasons without the desired success. I had been trying to upgrade in the positions needed for a couple of seasons but I did not have the prospects to make the deals I needed to make (we drafted at the end of the 1st round for quite a few seasons). If I kept him would we have contended in our division this year? Maybe, but we certainly wouldn't be a strong team overall. So I dealt him in his prime in order to maximize the return, which I did. I seriously doubt anyone was going to pay a higher price then Tuscon paid. I applaud them for it. I don't understand why more teams don't go for it when they have the chance. I see some of the guys available on the block and don't understand why some teams are not jumping to get them. It's always a risk trading for teenage players of course but that is how these deals work. I am not going to get 3 fully developed 4-5 star type players in their early 20's for him. You trade talent for potential. Not really that confusing to me anyways.

BTW - Nice write up Ted.

[felipe]

Montreal got a pile for Sandcastle, just like I did for Sunshine

I've been on both ends of a deal like that, and I don't think its a bad one for anyone

[cheekimonk]

As good as Sandcastle is, I didn't have the supporting cast needed to properly contend.

This has now been true twice of Sandcastle. A huge tent pole with tiny support poles is not a tent, it's an erection...and erections only last so long.

[Rubaboo]

Montreal got a pile for Sandcastle, just like I did for Sunshine

I've been on both ends of a deal like that, and I don't think its a bad one for anyone

True this. Good deals for both sides of both Sandcastle and Sunshine. One team in need of a star, one team that needs some retooling.

[RonCo]

A huge tent pole with tiny support poles is not a tent, it's an erection...and erections only last so long.

Or, if they don't, you're supposed to call the doctor.