Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

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Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

Post by Ted » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:59 pm

Trader Randy Strikes Again:

To San Fernando
Gusby Pinkerton (ACT)

To Portland
Ruben bin Majid al Din (Rookie)
Matt Alicea (AA)

Gusby Pinkerton has a sweet name. The 21 year old lefty is a ice mid rotation starter. He has two years of team control left. The only real knock on him is that he's had a number of ticky-tack injuries including forearm soreness in 2043. Other than that, he's a player any of us would be thrilled to have. His ability to limit the long ball will be key for the Bears. San Fernando has been searching for reliable starters to complement their aging, expensive monster offense, and Pinkerton fits nicely.

Ruben bin Majid al Din is a very nice pitching prospect. The 19 year old right hander has been bumping nicely over the last year as his velocity has improved He currently projects as a strong number 3, but could get better. He's durable and has NO injury history. That's nice. What scares me about him is is underdeveloped control and a 1/7 change up. Matt Alicea is 20 and needs to work on his slider. He may eventually be an acceptable back of the rotation option, but may be better in relief given his "meh" stuff and low stamina. A little boost from the 'pen could go a long way.

At first I though this looks like a solid deal, but as time goes on, I'm not so sure. I think it's a great move for the Bears, who really need to win now as some of their key bats are reaching the end of their peak years. Pinkerton is cheap, good, and ready now. I think Wilson probably should have gotten more for him. I'm not convinced Alicea has much value, and while bin Majid al Din has terrific upside, he has question marks (like many prospects). I'd like this deal a lot more if you swapped Alicea out for another prospect of bin Majid al Din's caliber. It's not bad, but I think you HAVE to get something for guys like Pinkerton.


The Part Where I Review My Own Trade:

Portland Receives:
SP Hector Amaral
RP Alonso Blanco (AAA)

Twin Cities Receives:
SP Kevin Morales

So, I downloaded the file and saw that Amaral, who I ws counting on to be a weak #2, had lost 2 mph and 10 points of overall rating in the past 2 months. That's no bueno for a 36 year old on a team that has literally one year to compete (maybe 2). Seeing that Wilson was taring down, I saw a 32 year old Kevin Morales making a similar amount of money and hit Wilson up, and told him of my concerns about Amaral's velo. Morales is slightly worse than pre-Lump Amaral, maybe about the same or slightly better now. Amaral is durable, and Morales is fragile. I'm not thrilled with this swap, but I couldn't risk Amaral lumping further. Then I'd have to dump him and there's a chance a player like Morales wouldn't be available.

From Wilson's standpoint, he doesn't have to care as much about Amaral lumping. Both of these guys are on the books next year, Amaral has a vesting option of 160 innings that Portland can avoid. Morals has team option he's unlikely to accept at his age. Portland needs the fan interest from Amaral, who is very popular. Morales is insignificant. This makes no sense as Amaral has 50 career WAR and Morales has 40, but whatever. Blanco is an okay, nearly developed relief prospect that makes the deal worthwhile when combined with the FI bump for Wilson.

Not a great deal for me, but a kind of have to pull the trigger now one. Nice small move for Wilson.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

Post by 7teen » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:10 am

Another nice write-up, Ted.

As for trade one, I think you and I saw Pinkerton better than other GMs do. Which is typical in most trade negotiations. A lefty starter with movement at 7 or higher is probably a nice asset to have which is why I think, in large part, he put up a 5.4 WAR last year as a rookie. But other GMs see the 50 rating and only a 55 Potential and will focus on that as why he's possibly not as good as his numbers indicate (cue Ron and his hatred of overall ratings)

I had about 3-4 conversations going on Pinkerton at one point yesterday, none of them materialized in a prospect better than what al Din offers. The changeup is a huge concern, and now that he's with Portland it'll likely never materialize. I've been so wrong on guys the last few years on how they'll develop it isn't funny (See: Cyr with Vegas). In the end it turned into: Get a pitching prospect with movement rating over 7, and then try and get something else thrown in the deal. That happened here so I went with it. Fingers crossed al Din develops.

As for our trade, nail on the head. That one was easy to review. For me it was all about FI and potentially getting out from under a veteran pitcher's contract. I can do that easier with Amaral than I could Morales. Now to solve how to dump Rocha's!
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Re: Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

Post by Ted » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:47 am

7teen wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:10 am
Another nice write-up, Ted.

As for trade one, I think you and I saw Pinkerton better than other GMs do. Which is typical in most trade negotiations. A lefty starter with movement at 7 or higher is probably a nice asset to have which is why I think, in large part, he put up a 5.4 WAR last year as a rookie. But other GMs see the 50 rating and only a 55 Potential and will focus on that as why he's possibly not as good as his numbers indicate (cue Ron and his hatred of overall ratings)

I had about 3-4 conversations going on Pinkerton at one point yesterday, none of them materialized in a prospect better than what al Din offers. The changeup is a huge concern, and now that he's with Portland it'll likely never materialize. I've been so wrong on guys the last few years on how they'll develop it isn't funny (See: Cyr with Vegas). In the end it turned into: Get a pitching prospect with movement rating over 7, and then try and get something else thrown in the deal. That happened here so I went with it. Fingers crossed al Din develops.

As for our trade, nail on the head. That one was easy to review. For me it was all about FI and potentially getting out from under a veteran pitcher's contract. I can do that easier with Amaral than I could Morales. Now to solve how to dump Rocha's!
Love hearing what you have to say. Regarding Pinkerton, yeah. It's tough to convince other GMs of your viewpoint sometimes. When you talk to a number of teams and the offers are all less than what you want, you have to make that decision on whether to just take what you can get or hold out and hope to avoid injury or some other event that would decrease your return anyway. It's always tough.
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Re: Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

Post by Lane » Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:52 pm

If I had known I was competing with Randy I would have upped my offer...
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Re: Trade Analysis: Portland Tear Down Continues

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:06 pm

Lane wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:52 pm
If I had known I was competing with Randy I would have upped my offer...
you come at the king you best not miss. :D

EDIT: and i didnt miss.
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