Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

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Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by lordtoffee » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:37 pm

The Pacific has been the division that the Heartland likes to look down on, but this year teams out there have suddenly started to become really interesting. It's not a given that the Frick will see 5 Heartland teams in the playoffs. The San Fernando Bears are right in the mix in the Wild Card hunt, and are chasing down the Sacramento Mad Popes. GM Randy Weigand has developed a team that has become a strong offensive core that is near the top of the Frick in all the major offensive categories. Meanwhile the Long Beach Surfers have been not doing so hot, and GM Stephen Lane is in the midst of a rethink of the Surfers. These teams made a trade, and let's talk about what it means for both sides and the Frick at large.

The Trade:

San Fernando Gets:
Lionel Crepin

Long Beach Gets:

Luis Santos
Stephen Shelton
Hector Ramirez

Bears Analysis:
Crepin is a BBA legend and is going to get a look at Hall of Fame induction, that much is for sure. He brings to San Fernando a proven track record of power and speed, and has a plus arm in RF. He is a rental, and was probably not going stick around with the Surfers during the retool. This makes an already potent Bears offense even better, as Crepin is someone who is a patient hitter and won't go up looking for dead red. The Bears still probably need a pitcher or two to avoid having to win 10-8 slugfests, but this deal certainly makes them better. If you have a chance to acquire a 300 career home run hitter, you have to take that chance. I see Crepin getting plenty of at bats, and could see him at DH should the need arise. The Bears now have a better outfield, and that will help them in the playoffs.

Surfers Analysis:
The Surfers were once the class of the Pacific, but recently have been under .500. Lane has done a great job in his tenure, and has said that this is more of a retool than a rebuild. I see no reason to doubt this, as he was able to get 3 prospects for a rental.

Santos is a young player, and has shown some signs of potentially developing into a possible BBA player. As a shortstop, I do like that he won a Gold Glove in high school, and his defense looks good with a nice looking 7 ZR. The concern for the Surfers is that his contact and power potential look questionable, and although he has been hitting for a pretty decent average in Rookie ball, it is with a small sample size. His plus speed should help him get an audition at the BBA level, but Santos is going to be in the minors for a few years. It's just too early to tell if he is going to turn out.

Shelton is a first baseman and is 20 years old. The positives on him is that he hit very well in the Drake and seems to be a candidate to maybe be a platoon option against right handed pitchers. His fielding is not amazing, but has improved since high school, and will have to get used to AA pitching. The concerns I have is that his range is still not great, and he is going to need to work on being a better defensive first basemen to get a look at AAA or the BBA. He still has time on his age, but he runs the risk of not making the BBA without some work and coaching by the Surfers and their minor league coaches.

Ramirez is a center fielder who has flashed some potential. He has a plus defensive ratings and speed, and can hit the ball in the gaps. Center field is not a position that is required for a plus offensive tool, but he would need to cut down on the strikeouts that were recurring at lower levels than AA ball. However, Ramirez is good at getting on base, and I could see him getting a shot in spring training. He is probably the best piece based on current ability that the Surfers got. I think Ramirez has a chance if he can keep working in the minors, and can certainly be a part of the future for the surfers or be traded in another deal.

What This Means For the Pacific?
The Bears are 4.5 games back in the Pacific, and still have a chance to overhaul the Mad Popes. The Popes are the best pitching team in the Frick, and are the team in the Pacific most well matched with the Bears. It wouldn't surprise me if the Popes make a trade for another bat or an arm. I would be remiss if I mentioned the Tropics are on the fringes of contention in the division race, and I wouldn't be shocked if James is working the phones as we approach the deadline. The Bears are going to be in a good position to succeed in the division, but they also should be worried about the Heartland teams.

What This Means For the Frick Wild Card?
The Frick has one team that we pretty much know for sure is going to be in the playoffs as a division winner. The Yellow Springs Nine have a comfortable division lead at the time of writing, and have shown no signs of giving ground. The Bears and Popes are going to likely take the Pacific barring Hawaii making a run. The teams in the Heartland who are making a run at the Wild Card are going to be Chicago, Twin Cities, Nashville, Madison, and Louisville. Those four teams are going to beat themselves up, similar to how the Tropics and Bears will take games from each other. The advantage the Heartland teams have is that they realistically know that Yellow Springs is going to be a bridge too far in the regular season, and can focus on each other. The Bears have to worry about those teams and the Popes, and don't have the luxury of worrying about just the Wild Card. I would expect there to be some serious dealmaking among those teams, and one major trade could swing things. I think this trade might be an early contender.
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Re: Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by crobillard » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:04 pm

Nicely done
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Re: Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by recte44 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:24 pm

Off Topic
Crepin is a BBA legend and is going to get a look at Hall of Fame induction, that much is for sure.
Perhaps a bit strong on a 23 WAR career player.
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Re: Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by bschr682 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:17 pm

recte44 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:24 pm
Off Topic
Crepin is a BBA legend and is going to get a look at Hall of Fame induction, that much is for sure.
Perhaps a bit strong on a 23 WAR career player.
That’s an understatement. BBA legend? In what universe?
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Re: Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by Lane » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:19 pm

He is the record holder for HR in a game ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Trade Analysis: San Fernando Adds Outfielder, Long Beach Adds Minor League Pieces

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:36 pm

I like the analysis, although agree that legend is perhaps a bit too strong for crepin (although I chalk that up to more just being new to the league on your part than anything). I have always structured my team around offense, and I have had a glaring hole in the corner ever since trading Bobby Horne to Charlotte early in the year. This is a perfect stop gap for now and I don't feel I gave up the farm to do it.
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