Analysis of the 2013 MBWBA Amateur Draft's First Round

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The second part will look at what I think are the best and worst picks and the most interesting ones.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. For entertainment purposes only. Do not use as a fire extinguisher. If there's any swelling, bruising or tearing after reading this article, for God's sake, stop hitting yourself!

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First Round Analysis:


1. DH/1B Frank Thomas III (Carolina): Thomas was the first hitter taken #1 overall since 2005. Thomas' development at age 18 probably spurred this pick, as his development crossed with his potential is leaps and bounds ahead of any other teenager in the draft. Tracks close to Hall of Famer Rafael Rodriguez at the plate if he develops, though, obviously, not in the field. Thomas is a pure DH, so this is a crummy value pick. Complete list of current MBWBA players with a contact rating of 10: Nobody, though Freddie Rigsby did before the season started. Complete list of prospects prior to the 2013 draft with 10 contact potential: Boone Carlyle. Now there are three on the latter list, including...

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2. 2B/SS/3B Brian Clough (Louisville): This guy. Clough appears to be the consensus highest-ceiling player in the draft with great intangibles. Switch-hitter. Offensive ceiling about as good as Thomas's potential. Plays the middle infield, albeit not well but better than some in the draft. Great speed. Less developed than Thomas in every batting category at a year older but much more valuable if he attains his potential. Could be the Rogers Hornsby or Honus Wagner of the MBWBA.

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3. SP Edward Simpson (Buffalo): Very possibly the best pitcher in this draft, Simpson needs a serious PPT attitude adjustment injection (not a problem for PPT-flush Buffalo) but is otherwise solid and is well along the developmental curve. Could be two or three years away. Lower endurance than some of the people chosen ahead of him, which may come into play at some point. Enormous ceiling if he gets all the way there.

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4. SP Angel Ramirez (Greenville): Limitless ceiling and a lefty to boot. Might be the best player in the draft but has a long way to go to get there and is very raw at 19. Doesn't throw that hard, so the command of his pitches will be very important, as will that superior control potential.

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5. SP Stevie Wolarski (Des Moines): Maybe the most developed player in the history of the draft. Might be up for Des Moines nearly right away as a lefty specialist at least. Throws hard and has a knuckleball, a weird combination you almost never see. A fascinating player who just also happens to be a 100% safe pick.

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6. SP Fox Mulder (Calgary): Mulder's ceiling isn't as high as the guys above him. Could use a splash of alien DNA if he doesn't currently have any. Low movement should be offset somewhat by Calgary's pitchers' park; he'll be good if inconsistent. Of all the players in the draft, Mulder and Wolarski might be the two most likely to succeed. I want to believe in him.

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7. CF JJ Abrams (Washington): Possibly the best hitting prospect in the draft, but compare his development at 18 years old with Frank Thomas' and you'll see why he was drafted seventh instead of first. He has a long way to go to be just adequate, much less the superior leadoff candidate he may someday become. May be the best all-around player in this draft. Superior defensive tools but needs to work on skills. Great speed. Long, long way away.

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8. SP Dave Wren (Las Vegas): Odd player in that he currently projects to have a backwards platoon. Throws hard for a 19 year old but doesn't have a big frame and might not be projectable above current levels. May have excellent command of his pitches but could have some troubles finding the strike zone. Interesting reliever conversion prospect if pitches lag behind, especially since his velocity is just okay.

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9. SP Burt Yates (Phoenix): Something of a soft-tosser, but not a bad value pick at #9. Yates should be a starter, not a reliever; he may never throw that hard though he's kind of a skinny kid right now. Low velocity and consistent use of changeup might keep him healthy. Groundballer. Similar pitchers to Yates generally do well in the majors. Long way away.

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10. RP Skip Glendenning (Valencia): The first reliever chosen, Glendenning could be the best pure pitcher in the draft. Lefty to boot. Certainly has stuff to start if his stamina spikes but otherwise won't, probably not even as a five-inning type. Best groundballer in the draft. Throws very hard for a teenager. Has a lot to work on; he's only 18 years old so he's a long, long way away. His nickname "Crunchy" apparently refers to the fact that he looks like an African-American Captain Crunch.

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11. SP Rafael Gonzalez (Omaha): Either a total draft bust or a fantastic value pick. Gonzalez has a terrible injury history and starts his professional career at a fragile injury history, including his most recent disaster which will prevent him from pitching this year. Average development for 19. His nickname, Pop, might be the sound his arm makes when it moves. (Look, I'm recycling material!) Low endurance. Doesn't throw hard. But his potentials are outstanding and if he was healthy he'd have gone at least six spots above this. Interesting gamble.

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12. RF Robb Stark (California): Good all-around player with no apparent weaknesses in his game. Very underdeveloped for a 22-year old so he'll have to come on in a hurry. Switch-hitter but favors his right hand somewhat. Could be an on-base machine and top leadoff man if he develops fully. Very good defender. Most likely player to be betrayed and murdered at a wedding. Error rating of 10 extremely ironic.

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13. RP/SP Lleynour Graves (Birmingham): Graves has superior stuff and throws hard and his stuff potential is higher as a reliever. Very far along his developmental curve at 22, Graves should come on fast. Looks more like a reliever than a starter with no third pitch. A fairly safe, if low-ceiling, pick.

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14. 2B Phil Chapman (Marquette): Chapman is a spunky, speedy, free-swinging slap hitter, with very little power but will make contact nearly all the time. Not likely to ever be good on defense. Acceptable development for a 19 year old. Long way to go before he's usable and may have a righty platoon factor (hits lefties better). Interesting challenge pick since the NEXT pick was also a second baseman.

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15. 2B Shane Lutz (New Orleans): Lutz is very far along the developmental curve for an 18 year old, one of the best-developed teenagers in the draft. He should hit for a little more power than Chapman but might not be as consistent. Very marginal in the field. As before, an interesting challenge pick because he was picked right after Chapman.

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16. SP Jay Lee, Jr. (Madison): Very raw. Learned how to pitch from his dad but very low ceiling because he doesn't throw hard and it'll take years for his stuff to develop. Could come on big if his stamina picks up. Superior intangibles and large pitch repertoire. Should try him as a starter before considering reliever conversion. Nickname Algae apparently comes from the fact that his father adopted him from a eukaryotic organism.

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17. 1B Bob Garner (Hawaii): One of the best contact/power potentials in the draft, and Garner should do that with low numbers of walks and strikeouts. Garner is a stash pick, the kind of guy you pick and forget about for five years. Could use an attitude adjustment. A risk/reward pick if we ever saw one. Probably a little bit of a reach, especially with Stu Baker on the board.

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18. SS Jorge Morales (Baltimore): Morales is a defense and speed pick. Projects at multiple positions and may get a specialization at SS. Morales is a speed-and-D type who will probably always bat ninth but is valuable as a versatile player and a decent contact bat. Might be a bit of a stretch except for one fact: the next shortstop taken was #72 in the draft and the next one after that was #95, so there's that. We might have waited to see if he'd slip to #26.

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19. RP (SP?) Hani Tinsley (Atlantic City): Tinsley should be two years out at the most and ought to jump right into AAA. A hard thrower with excellent stuff, Tinsley will always be a little inconsistent but should mostly be above average as a reliever. Could be kind of a sneaky starter if he gains in endurance, especially with a conversion.

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20. LF William McIntyre (Long Beach): Ariba, ariba, andale! McIntyre projects at least average at everything but above average with the bat, except that he's fantastic on the basepaths. If he gets all his hitting potentials he could be a top leadoff man because he'll be an average hitter who's superior at stealing bases. Defensively crummy so he'll have to do it with the bat. Nickname is Dinnerplate but if his defense is as bad as it projects they'll probably rename him "Trapper."

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21. SP Kyle Moore (Seattle): This is one of our favorite picks of the draft because Moore is very, very developed at age 18, throws very hard for anybody, even moreso for a teenager, and has fine intangibles. His ceiling isn't bad as it is, but guys who have figured out that much at age 18, well, you never know with those guys. Should be an adequate SP even if he doesn't change a point in potentials.

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22. CF Oscar Lindsey (Chicago): Lindsey projects to be an excellent defensive center fielder with some skills at the plate. He's shown no platoon factor, which is good news for a righthanded hitter. Good intangibles. Good on the basepaths. Might never be a star but he should be an everyday player.

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23. SP Steve Ratzlaff (Vancouver): Ratzlaff isn't going to inspire lyrical poetry, but he's a quality prospect. Average development for a 19 year old. Very good intangibles. His stuff is very uninspiring, especially when you consider he doesn't throw hard. Might end up being an outstanding reliever conversion, especially if he picks up some velocity.

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24. CF Emory Sharp (Montreal): Love this pick this late in the first round. Sharp is a superior defensive player, a superior basestealer and has no apparent holes in his ratings. He's got tons of holes in his swing, but he might be a top-5 defensive CF who finishes in the top 5 in stolen bases and hits .230 with 15-20 homers and 30 doubles. I'll take that guy, especially where they got him.

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[bschr682]

5. SP Stevie Wolarski (Des Moines): Maybe the most developed player in the history of the draft. Might be up for Des Moines nearly right away as a lefty specialist at least. Throws hard and has a knuckleball, a weird combination you almost never see. A fascinating player who just also happens to be a 100% safe pick.

You totally just doomed this guy to a CEI.

[aaronweiner]

5. SP Stevie Wolarski (Des Moines): Maybe the most developed player in the history of the draft. Might be up for Des Moines nearly right away as a lefty specialist at least. Throws hard and has a knuckleball, a weird combination you almost never see. A fascinating player who just also happens to be a 100% safe pick.

You totally just doomed this guy to a CEI.

It was probably going to happen anyway. Exclusive: Wolarski called me after this writeup and told me that he actually had a third knee and a second set of teeth on his body but couldn't tell me where.

[agrudez]

If you told me a decade from now that Wolarski was far and away the most productive player from this draft I wouldn't be too surprised... very rarely do you get a pick that is sumultaneously safe, high-ceiling'd and slightly risky, but his 'odd' combination of advanced development, left-handedness, high velocity, ++ knuckble-ball and solid ratings gives him portions of every one of the profiles for me.

[jcrmoon42]

I think Dinnerplate's nickname might have more to do with his moustache than anything else.

[Al-Hoot]

Thank you for the outstanding writeup

[trmmilwwi]

Awesome article.. kudos for the info on each player. Awesome!!

[njherdfan]

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21. SP Kyle Moore (Seattle): This is one of our favorite picks of the draft because Moore is very, very developed at age 18, throws very hard for anybody, even moreso for a teenager, and has fine intangibles. His ceiling isn't bad as it is, but guys who have figured out that much at age 18, well, you never know with those guys. Should be an adequate SP even if he doesn't change a point in potentials.

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[aaronweiner]

You're welcome, guys. We had a little downtime so I thought I'd fill it up.

[JimBob2232]

Nice feature. I really wanted Chapman, but had to settle for Lutz. Hopefully it works out in the end.

[Edward Murphy]

Just a small reminder about SP Stevie Wolarski is I need to sign him. this is job 1 for the Kernels now. Then it will be a pick. Also a GREAT write up.

[Manny]

That is a fantastic article, kudos to you good sir

[Greeney03]

Angel Ramirez better pans out. Awesome write-up my friend.

[agrudez]

Angel Ramirez better pans out. Awesome write-up my friend.

Not mentioned in the article, but he is 4 months from 20 and very under-developed, coupled with some mediocre intangibles and I'm not liking his chances. That said, though, even if he only ends up 7/7/8 (or something similiar) as a Southpaw that is still a nice contributor as, probably, a #2 in a rotation.

[aaronweiner]

Angel Ramirez better pans out. Awesome write-up my friend.

Not mentioned in the article, but he is 4 months from 20 and very under-developed, coupled with some mediocre intangibles and I'm not liking his chances. That said, though, even if he only ends up 7/7/8 (or something similiar) as a Southpaw that is still a nice contributor as, probably, a #2 in a rotation.

I think I covered that with "very raw at 19."

[agrudez]

I think I covered that with "very raw at 19."

You should've said "very, VERY raw at 19 2/3rds".

[njherdfan]

Just in case you haven't heard this enough, this is a fantastic article. Kudos.

[aaronweiner]

I used to do this kind of thing all the time in one of Matt's other leagues, but a total dorkwad in the league started heckling me and got me so angry I stopped doing it. I run on kudos, so I really appreciate the kind words, thanks guys.

[kestu]

Really enjoyed reading this - great job!

[mrbornac]

Indeed, great feature!