2065.07 Marcel Projections: 2065 Pitchers Edition

[Bob Breum]

As you may recall, Marcel is a stats-based projection system developed by sabermetric god Tom Tango. It uses a weighted average of the last three seasons with some regression to the mean and includes an age adjustment.

Enrique Villareal


The Top 100 by ERA:

Rank	Pitcher	ORG	Age	Reliability	mIP	mHA	mHR	mER	mBB	mSO	mERA	mWHIP	mFIP
1	Enrique Villarreal	BIK	27	52%	67.0	57	6	21	17	55	2.82	1.10	3.54
2	Miguel Reyes	CCJ	23	42%	62.0	56	5	21	20	47	3.05	1.23	3.75
3	Serge Elovsky	VAN	23	46%	64.0	53	6	22	18	56	3.09	1.11	3.56
4	Winston Morris	BIK	24	49%	63.0	57	5	23	19	55	3.29	1.21	3.44
5	Eduardo Moreno	VAN	32	69%	123.0	95	14	45	37	154	3.29	1.07	3.13
6	Ernesto Juárez	PHX	28	64%	101.0	88	10	37	25	101	3.30	1.12	3.28
7	Jesús García	VAN	28	51%	64.0	59	6	24	20	49	3.38	1.23	3.88
8	Felipe Zarate	MAD	21	33%	58.0	52	6	22	17	50	3.41	1.19	3.75
9	Moananani Nana	CPF	24	51%	76.0	73	6	29	23	53	3.43	1.26	3.79
10	Tommy Boele	ATC	34	39%	68.0	67	7	26	24	53	3.44	1.34	4.09
11	Harry Bransington	AUS	22	72%	175.0	157	17	67	55	129	3.45	1.21	3.98
12	Forrest Rockburn	CHI	22	62%	158.0	136	22	61	48	134	3.47	1.16	4.28
13	José González	CBH	24	49%	75.0	68	9	29	22	54	3.48	1.20	4.25
14	Dave Furman	VAL	24	45%	62.0	57	5	24	21	51	3.48	1.26	3.67
15	Paul Worboys	BIK	24	75%	191.0	185	19	74	48	149	3.49	1.22	3.74
16	Kalaila Cobar	CPF	24	53%	72.0	68	7	28	20	51	3.50	1.22	3.93
17	Wlodz Sidelsky	VAN	29	46%	59.0	53	6	23	17	43	3.51	1.19	3.98
18	Scott Everard	DM	36	68%	110.0	105	10	43	35	85	3.52	1.27	3.84
19	Augusto Ramírez	PHX	23	37%	51.0	49	6	20	15	41	3.53	1.25	4.06
20	Carlos Cruz	MAD	22	42%	84.0	75	7	33	25	70	3.54	1.19	3.56
21	Jorge Quiñones		38	46%	56.0	55	6	22	17	42	3.54	1.29	4.06
22	David Molina	NSH	31	73%	155.0	142	17	61	40	137	3.54	1.17	3.68
23	Dewitt Cofield	POR	26	45%	66.0	63	6	26	21	51	3.55	1.27	3.84
24	Hidehira Suzuki	MEX	26	48%	66.0	57	6	26	22	43	3.55	1.20	4.13
25	Javier Orduño	PHX	23	50%	71.0	67	7	28	20	58	3.55	1.23	3.75
26	Bobby Mchone	CBH	24	59%	154.0	145	12	61	47	98	3.56	1.25	3.91
27	Victor King	POR	23	64%	159.0	153	14	63	41	101	3.57	1.22	3.90
28	Nakamaro Hori	CHI	29	44%	53.0	52	5	21	18	41	3.57	1.32	3.95
29	Seth Weller	ATC	23	41%	106.0	99	10	42	39	82	3.57	1.30	4.04
30	Nelson Middlebrooks	AUS	24	46%	58.0	55	6	23	19	43	3.57	1.28	4.10
31	Bill Fitzpatrick	SAC	24	52%	78.0	75	8	31	24	69	3.58	1.27	3.74
32	Eric Stevens	NSH	33	74%	180.0	164	23	72	45	172	3.60	1.16	3.75
33	Claudio Torres	SAC	23	53%	70.0	63	7	28	25	59	3.60	1.26	3.94
34	Gheorghe Sollomovici	HAW	23	46%	55.0	48	6	22	17	45	3.60	1.18	3.96
35	Jorge Trinidad	VAN	23	39%	60.0	58	6	24	17	42	3.60	1.25	4.00
36	Luis Medina	CBH	22	59%	157.0	155	15	63	41	106	3.61	1.25	3.93
37	Steve Mcfarland	SA	31	58%	82.0	72	9	33	26	63	3.62	1.20	4.09
38	Rubén Hernández	LOU	22	44%	67.0	63	8	27	17	51	3.63	1.19	4.04
39	Adam Hines	CHI	31	75%	186.0	163	27	75	52	177	3.63	1.16	4.07
40	Jodie Hanna	PHX	32	44%	57.0	55	5	23	17	42	3.63	1.26	3.81
41	Ernesto Morales	ROS	24	31%	52.0	50	6	21	16	41	3.63	1.27	4.10
42	Luis González	YS9	34	77%	198.0	188	18	80	60	147	3.64	1.25	3.86
43	Dave Labonte	CBH	23	61%	163.0	155	17	66	37	98	3.64	1.18	4.09
44	Kirk Redding	ROS	22	44%	64.0	61	7	26	21	49	3.66	1.28	4.13
45	Walt Thomas	NSH	28	42%	59.0	54	6	24	18	46	3.66	1.22	3.93
46	Jonathan Sobers	MEX	24	41%	54.0	50	5	22	21	40	3.67	1.31	4.14
47	Bob Westbrooks	HAW	25	54%	71.0	70	6	29	24	58	3.68	1.32	3.73
48	Alonso González	DM	27	31%	44.0	42	5	18	14	35	3.68	1.27	4.09
49	Dirk Bessi	LV	32	74%	173.0	164	18	71	50	133	3.69	1.24	3.93
50	Eduardo Brawner	PHX	23	34%	56.0	53	7	23	16	45	3.70	1.23	4.13
51	Utkan Göçek	HAW	35	60%	90.0	84	10	37	27	79	3.70	1.23	3.84
52	Héctor Silva	CCJ	33	76%	192.0	173	20	79	49	165	3.70	1.16	3.65
53	Javier Arteaga	DM	22	28%	51.0	47	5	21	17	40	3.71	1.25	3.96
54	Seung-Jin Cho	CCJ	31	58%	80.0	75	9	33	24	65	3.71	1.24	3.99
55	Ricardo Martínez	LV	25	34%	46.0	43	5	19	19	35	3.72	1.35	4.38
56	John O'Leary	POR	26	74%	167.0	154	18	69	50	123	3.72	1.22	4.08
57	Juan García	VAN	31	74%	181.0	173	20	75	47	132	3.73	1.22	4.01
58	Carlos Williams	NSH	22	55%	77.0	69	9	32	25	63	3.74	1.22	4.11
59	Bin-Ying Yen	NSH	27	72%	161.0	150	17	67	45	122	3.75	1.21	3.95
60	Ford Prefect	LOU	31	35%	36.0	34	5	15	12	27	3.75	1.28	4.56
61	Esteban Sánchez	ROS	22	60%	158.0	149	18	66	43	120	3.76	1.22	4.03
62	Jesús Fox	MEX	22	22%	79.0	78	8	33	23	54	3.76	1.28	4.08
63	Brian Whitford	VAN	27	75%	177.0	172	18	74	50	132	3.76	1.25	3.93
64	Lúcio Juárez	VAL	35	70%	141.0	138	14	59	37	94	3.77	1.24	4.00
65	Joaquín Rodríguez	CLG	23	21%	43.0	41	5	18	13	34	3.77	1.26	4.09
66	Carlos Gómez	NSH	23	8%	31.0	30	4	13	9	23	3.77	1.26	4.32
67	Garth Dobbs	PHX	31	75%	174.0	167	17	73	49	128	3.78	1.24	3.90
68	Ricardo Nystrom	LOU	23	70%	176.0	170	12	74	60	114	3.78	1.31	3.87
69	Adam Bristcoe	MTL	33	66%	107.0	101	10	45	37	90	3.79	1.29	3.82
70	José Torres	NSH	24	68%	114.0	106	11	48	35	88	3.79	1.24	3.88
71	Kevin Edwards	MAD	27	53%	95.0	85	11	40	30	73	3.79	1.21	4.17
72	Jim Fleming	LV	34	74%	178.0	169	22	75	52	155	3.79	1.24	3.99
73	Eduardo Jiménez	NO	23	40%	64.0	60	9	27	19	52	3.80	1.23	4.35
74	Allen Davidson	CCJ	35	76%	191.0	183	20	81	60	133	3.82	1.27	4.16
75	Diego Cuevas	CLG	27	19%	40.0	40	5	17	13	33	3.83	1.33	4.20
76	Murali Patachli	POR	30	73%	169.0	163	22	72	52	146	3.83	1.27	4.14
77	Buwono Mainaky	HAW	35	74%	169.0	165	19	72	49	120	3.83	1.27	4.16
78	Tony Vásquez	BIK	24	43%	61.0	56	7	26	19	47	3.84	1.23	4.14
79	Víctor Trevino	DM	21	42%	75.0	74	8	32	23	51	3.84	1.29	4.20
80	Josh Clark	BOI	35	74%	178.0	179	24	76	40	129	3.84	1.23	4.23
81	Michihiro Tanaka	SAC	32	73%	168.0	167	16	72	48	129	3.86	1.28	3.81
82	Ricardo Sánchez	HAW	28	41%	63.0	62	6	27	18	46	3.86	1.27	3.89
83	Andrés Gonzáles	NO	32	65%	77.0	75	8	33	24	62	3.86	1.29	3.93
84	José Rodríguez	AUS	26	13%	70.0	68	7	30	21	52	3.86	1.27	3.97
85	Dorsey Miller	LOU	24	4%	28.0	27	3	12	9	21	3.86	1.29	4.11
86	Bryon Flynn	ROS	23	4%	28.0	27	3	12	9	21	3.86	1.29	4.11
87	Emílio Díaz	ROS	24	33%	93.0	91	10	40	31	71	3.87	1.31	4.12
88	Rafael González	LV	27	52%	65.0	61	7	28	22	55	3.88	1.28	3.98
89	Adamnan Maryadi	LBC	39	50%	65.0	65	7	28	20	49	3.88	1.31	4.07
90	Victor Braden	JAX	23	45%	65.0	63	7	28	20	49	3.88	1.28	4.07
91	Pepe Domínguez	DM	30	38%	65.0	68	7	28	20	45	3.88	1.35	4.19
92	Mario Santos	SFB	28	46%	58.0	58	6	25	21	45	3.88	1.36	4.13
93	Jerry Stone	TWC	34	71%	153.0	153	16	66	44	112	3.88	1.29	4.01
94	Pedro Martínez	CHA	22	29%	51.0	49	6	22	15	39	3.88	1.25	4.13
95	Cornelio Martínez	YS9	22	35%	51.0	47	7	22	15	41	3.88	1.22	4.31
96	Esteban Cole	NSH	25	28%	44.0	42	5	19	12	33	3.89	1.23	4.05
97	Giustino Modica	LBC	30	58%	81.0	76	8	35	26	65	3.89	1.26	3.89
98	Chris Parker	VAN	24	65%	162.0	148	18	70	37	113	3.89	1.14	3.99
99	Waleed Hadad	CPF	27	48%	81.0	82	10	35	27	59	3.89	1.35	4.40
100	Abdul-Halim Bin Mansur	VAN	27	41%	67.0	68	7	29	20	46	3.90	1.31	4.13

See my previous post for more on the methodology:
http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewto ... 23&t=55082

Alphabetic sort:

Marcel 2065 Pitching.pdf

(306.62 KiB) Downloaded 1 time

Team sort:

Marcel 2065 Pitching by Team.pdf

(319.05 KiB) Downloaded 3 times

[Bob Breum]

Here is the .csv file:

Marcel 2065 Pitching.csv

(113.96 KiB) Downloaded 1 time

[RonCo]

I like #1...and the pic.

[Bob Breum]

I like #1...and the pic.

I've noticed that you are using pictures with your posts. I'm following your lead.