2064 A Look at Player Options – Pitchers

[Trebro]

Now that we got to all the opt outs, it's time to circle back to the player options. There were only two pitchers in 2063 that had options and I had a split decision, going 1-1. Should have been 2-0 but Davis was so ridiculously stupid, giving up $6.5 million to end up unsigned and returning to Cape Fear on a minor league deal. What a moron!

His bad decision is part of why I am more inclined on jump ball cases to go with voiding the contract. We'll see if that holds here this off-season. Will I do any better? Damned if I know! Let's get started, shall we?

RP Josh Dougherty, Austin
Age: 36
Player Option is for: 2.5 Million
2064 Stats of Note: 2-4, 2 saves, 5.66 ERA, 20 games, 1.40 WHIP, -0.8 WAR, bone chip injury

Oof. This is shades of Nathaniel Davis, which is causing me fits in terms of how I predict what happens next. Like Davis, this D-lister did well in 2062 and well enough in 2063 to get a fairly nice contract of 3.5 million, with this player option of 2.5 million. But even with 82 saves over those two years, Dougherty struggled to find any sense of routine with Austin and ends the year hurt. Again, just like Davis.

I won't belabor this, Dougherty should execute the option. But given what Davis did last year, I am starting to think that maybe OOTP doesn't understand that people don't sign injured guys to multi-million dollar deals. Still, there can't be two players the game does this to, right?

Right?

Well, fool me once, as they say…

I think Dougherty DECLINES the option.

SP Thomas Turner, Boise
Age: 40
Player Option is for: $9.6 Million
2063 Stats of Note: 9-16, 4.38 ERA,1.34 WHIP, 106 FIP-, 1.7 rWAR

Turner was your protoypical 4/5 starter this past season. Nothing fancy, but he ate innings and gave you a chance to win. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance. It's what he's been the past few seasons, frankly. The type of guy to start 30 or so games, have an FIP in the four point something range, and be generally useful. If he were a few years younger, I'd expect he'd easily get a new deal from someone. I'm not sure how much the game factors in age, but given Bishr opted out last year with a better deal and a similar age, I don't think it matters as much as it should. Turner won't get nearly 10 million in this off-season (at least I don't think he will) but he's going to try.

I think Turner DECLINES the option.

SP Carlos Moya, Chicago
Age: 34
Player Option is for: $12 Million (2065) and $11.8 Million (2066)
2064 Stats of Note: 10-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 101 FIP-, 1.5 rWAR

Now see, Moya is basically Turner but younger. He also has a better track record in recent seasons, with a career FIP- of 91, including 83 (2060), 85 (2061) and 81 (2063). His velocity is down a bit, but other than that, his ratings have held very steady even as he's gone past the deadly age 30 road. While he probably won't get more than he'd make with Chicago the next few seasons, he almost certainly can get a longer deal and bank more bucks. Then if he's still playing well, he can get one more after that. If he waits, only one more deal of big bucks is likely. Therefore…

I think Moya DECLINES the Option.

SP Nalany Ahotaein, Hawaii
Age: 33
Player Option is for: $7 Million
2064 Stats of Note: 5-9, 4.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 94 FIP-, 2.0 rWAR

Ahotaein's biggest drawback is being hard to spell. He's yet another 4/5 starter type, but in the upcoming free agent market, 7 million is going to see him underpaid. His 2061/62 years were very good and his 63/64 were decent. He hasn't had his ratings dip significantly. He's the perfect guy to get on a three year deal with one of those being a team option, at about nine or ten million a year average. A dude a team on the rise needing some extra SP help would take a look at and hope he can sneak in one last really good year at best, solid at worst.

I think Ahotaein DECLINES the Option.

SP Ji-e Woo, Jacksonville
Age: 36
Player Option is for $10 Million
2064 Stats of Note (Mexico City): 7-11 in 24 starts, 4.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 108 FIP-, 2.2 rWAR
2064 Stats of Note: (Jacksonville): 3-1 in 8 starts, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 110 FIP-, 1.4 rWAR

Not a lot of Rick Flair for this WOO, who doesn't have the stat split between teams that Molina did. He's a little under league average, with stats to match, and would get 10 million to stay put in Zombieland. Scouting shows him on the downswing, losing velocity and stuff, which is never a good combo when your other ratings besides control are mediocre and you have no pitches of note. With bad intangibles (that honestly make me surprised Aaron was even interested in him), Woo is not going to be at the top of anyone's free agent list. If he were getting a lower salary, I'd say he'll try for more, but given the just okay stats and the ratings decline, I think he finds ten million reasons to stay around.

I think Woo EXECUTES the Option.

RP Wesley Turner, Madison
Age: 32
Player Option is for: $8.5 Million
2064 Stats of Note: 4-1, 1 save (47 games), 4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 104 FIP-, 0.5 rWAR

Turner might turn things around and be a better pitcher in 2064, but I think what we're seeing is what you're going to get, and what it is won't be worth 8.5 million in the open market. Add in his lack of greed and lack of lights out ratings or stats (even within the past several years) and I think Wesley is back in the Madison bullpen in 2065.

I think Turner EXECUTES the Option.

SP Takashi Nakamura, Phoenix
Age: 36
Player Option is for: 8 Million
2064 Stats of Note (Bikini): 3-2 (8 starts), 3.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 77 FIP-, 1.4 rWAR
2064 Stats of Note (Phoenix): 13-5 (24 starts), 4.57 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 97 FIP-, 1.5 rWAR

Fresh off his World Championship, will Nakamura tear up his option and throw it in Sean's Smelter, if you know what I mean?

Um, yeah, and he'd be stupid not to. Nakamura would be one of the top free agents of the off-season, given that he's still bringing it at age 36 with no significant downturns to his stats or ratings that could be pointed to as a danger sign. His four-pitch arsenal with pinpoint control is going to help someone bolster their changes in an increasingly competitive BBA, assuming he doesn't suddenly fall off a cliff. Not only will he get more than 8 million in 2065, he's likely to get something along the lines of a 3x45. Heck, to nail him down, someone might even go a full five years.

There's no way Nakamura does anything except DECLINE the option.

SP Jamie Barber, Sacramento
Age: 38
Player Option is for: $9.5 Million
2064 Stats of Note: 15-8, 3.17 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 91 FIP-, 3.8 rWAR

Barber had a very good 2064 for a 38 year old, registering career highs in wins and ERA, and second best WHIP and WAR. He also rebounded from a 113 FIP- back to the 91 FIP- he also had in 2062. He still has good ratings, though his velocity has dipped somewhat, which could be a future sign. Or perhaps not.

I'm not sure how he'll do in the open market. He is unlikely to be anyone's first choice but he could do well once Nakamura and his ilk are off the board (assuming they make it to the board). He's almost certain to make more than 9.5 million. Probably 2x12 or something along those lines.

I think Barber DECLINES the option.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know!

[BaseClogger]

I think Turner stays put.

[Trebro]

I think Turner stays put.

Me, too. But stranger things have happened. What do you think about Dougherty?

[BaseClogger]

I think Turner stays put.

Me, too. But stranger things have happened. What do you think about Dougherty?

What did he end up doing? I woulda guessed stay/execute the option.

[RonCo]

He stayed.

[Jwalk100]

Ahotaein declined but Ive offered him a deal good for both of us.

[Chuck V]

Doherty executed his option. He is staying. We will see if he manages to last for a few games next year.