The Brewster

As you may recall, Marcel is a stats-based projection system developed by sabermetric god Tom Tango. It uses a weighted average of the last three seasons with some regression to the mean and includes an age adjustment.

See my prior post to learn more:

http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 23&t=55082

Here are the projections in alphabetic order:
Here they are by team:
And in .csv form:

I sorted the projected OPS from largest to smallest and some names that stand out:

11th - Terry Pitzer (DM)
The catcher just won player of the week. His ratings don't scream this kind of performance to me but I once doubted Matsunaga so what do I know about young Iowa catchers.

16th - Juan Rivera (LBC)
I was surprised to see a Surfer this high. Even more surprised its a guy who played last year in Short A.

43rd - Kurt Oakes (CLG)
Good defender, had a great 2063 campaign in limited time. Can't see him OPSing .810.

667th - Jose Mendoza (SFB)
I expect this current 8 contact prospect to hit for a higher BA than .229.

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:53 pm

I sorted the projected OPS from largest to smallest and some names that stand out:

16th - Juan Rivera (LBC)
I was surprised to see a Surfer this high. Even more surprised its a guy who played last year in Short A.

This is obviously a case of mistaken identity. Marcel thinks he's HOF Juan Rivera. Oops.

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:53 pm

I sorted the projected OPS from largest to smallest and some names that stand out:

11th - Terry Pitzer (DM)
The catcher just won player of the week. His ratings don't scream this kind of performance to me but I once doubted Matsunaga so what do I know about young Iowa catchers.

43rd - Kurt Oakes (CLG)
Good defender, had a great 2063 campaign in limited time. Can't see him OPSing .810.

These players are the result of small sample size, with less than one season each.

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:53 pm

I sorted the projected OPS from largest to smallest and some names that stand out:

667th - Jose Mendoza (SFB)
I expect this current 8 contact prospect to hit for a higher BA than .229.

This is another bad match. Mendoza has never played in the BBA. He should not be in the dataset. His projection is based on a different Jose Mendoza. I leave the determination of which one to the reader.

Bob Breum wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 04, 2025 12:02 am

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:53 pm

I sorted the projected OPS from largest to smallest and some names that stand out:

667th - Jose Mendoza (SFB)
I expect this current 8 contact prospect to hit for a higher BA than .229.

This is another bad match. Mendoza has never played in the BBA. He should not be in the dataset. His projection is based on a different Jose Mendoza. I leave the determination of which one to the reader.

When it comes to Mendozas, I draw the line at having to tell them apart.