It is hard to believe that losing a guy putting up 7.5 WAR wouldn't really hurt a team. I mean. 7.5 WAR comes in the form of 48 homers, 24 steals, and a .300/.348/.621 slash, not to mention a glove worth a 5.3 ZR (1.048) in center and a 1.9 ZR (1.021 EFF) in left. Those are some real numbers, and when Cater Cramer tore his groin and got put on the shelf, that's what got pushed away.
And, sure, it's going to hurt a little.
The Man From Mankato
Has a Boo-Boo
Sure, Tingle is having a down year. And maybe he's even lost some of the verve that has seen him averaging about 4.5 WAR a season for the last five. And, of course, Joffer isn't as dynamic as Cramer. It is hard to impossible to actually replace a Carter Cramer. I get that. But Nashville is one of the rare teams that does not really need to replace their superstar so much as they just need to add a player who can keep the pressure applied. Because that's how Nashville's offense (which is the best in the league at OBP, WAR, and BB, and second best in just about everything else) is built: they relentless pressure on the other team based on the idea that there are no sure outs. No moments of rest. Tingle (and Joffer when he arrives) will do just that.
It's possible that there may be another team in the league that could suffer the loss of a mega-star in centerfield without massive, serious problems, but I can't name one. Maybe Sacramento before they converted Amphibian Johnson to another currency.
The question on my mind, though, is what does this mean for next season? The answer, I think, is "nothing." As a 22-year-old, Cramer's history has a few dings, including a fractured finger, and a strained shoulder to go with his pulled groin. He's maybe got the daring Pete Reiser thing going, but it's too early to tell. But at present his injury doesn't suggest any broken skills going forward, and if that's the case baseball fans and Nashville fans in particular can breathe a sigh of relief. Guys like Cramer are good for the game. You want him playing in these young years of daring do, at his peak capacity. I suspect he'll be fine in 2063.
This is important for Nashville because while I'm not concerned for them in the present, the Bluebirds might really need him to be at full steam if they are going to keep the juggernaut behemothing.
Perhaps that sounds alarmist. And, yes, it is. At least in a particular slant and except for the places where it isn't. Because alarmist or not, Nashville is going to win a lot of games in 2063 almost no matter what Nason does in the GM seat.
That said, the club has a few hoops they are going to have to negotiate. The team projects to have about $15M left to spend on contracts next year, but both star reliever David Molina and star second baseman Colby Triska are going to be looking for a new contract. That's not math that will fit without some serious juggling. If Cramer, for whatever reason, crashes because of this injury, that would leave the team with the longterm concern about Tingle's viability, and, while conversation around star SS Brooks Elliot have been quelled for a bit, Elliot is 29, and he did have a moderately humdrum first half. There's a little risk there (and given that Lucas McNeill, Jr. appears to be at least another year away, a chink in the shortstop armor to go along with any real down-sizing in center field would be a true area of concern when it comes to talking about winning the Heartlandthe Bluebirds would still likely be the favorite, but it wouldn't be the slam dunk some might say it is otherwise, and even then Twin Cities, Des Moines, Chicago, and Louisville (if they can find some pitching) are going to have a say about that. [editor: Nashville's days of cruising through 75% of the division appear to be at their end]
Add in that 27 yo corner OF Alfonso Gonzalez (6+WAR) is going to get $13M or so in next year's arbitration process and will likely be looking for a lot more in an extension, and you've added more vinegar to the mix.
A set of decisions will need to be made. Financial hoops will need to be hooped. There are questions. There, of course, also a lot of answer to these questions at Nashville's fingertips. But most of them add up to the idea that if Carter Cramer's injury does wind up creating real long-term issues, the Bluebirds may slide down the force scale from "Impenetrable Wall" to "Hard to Beat." And with the Heartland heating up, that eventuality could cause some interesting moments.
I'm not betting the ranch.
I think that of the three real behemoths of the moment (including Charm City and Sacramento), Nashville is the one that is most on cruise control. But unlike most recent years, I'm seeing enough micro-cracks in the chains to think it's actually possible someone else might win the Heartland division in my lifetime.
