2061 A Look at the Opt Out Crowd: Batters

[Trebro]

I really enjoyed when Ron did this a few seasons ago, so I decided to see if I could do it, too. Here's a look at several of the players with Opt Outs after this season and my thoughts on if they'll do so. I'm covering the offensive (sometimes really offensive!) players here. If I get time tonight, I'll do the pitchers, but it's growing late and I might not get the time.

3B Socrates Kazantziakis, Austin
Age: 35
2061 Stats of Note: .9 WAR in 135 games, OPS .654, 28 SB, 2.8 ZR at third
If Opts In: 12 million in 2062 and 12 million in 2063
This is an easy one If the Philosopher opts out, he's a fool. There's no way he'd get even close to 12 million as a light-hitting 3B option, let alone 24 million, and might even be unable to obtain a minor league camp invitation. If he opts out, something is seriously wrong with OOTP's engine.

I think he OPTS IN.

3B Unem Ploid, Long Beach
Age: 34
2061 Stats of Note: 3.2 WAR in just 88 games, OPS .900, 115 hits, 20 doubles
If Opts In: 14 Million in 2062, 14 Million in 2063, Team Options 12 Million in 2064 (6 Million Buy Out) and 2065 (3 Million Buy Out)

Ploid was one of the best hitters for average and on-base percentage while with Sacramento, but his time in Long Beach has been marred with injuries. He's only played 183 games in two seasons with the Surfers. Given the injury bug, his advancing age, and the hesitation many BBA GMs have for players heading for the wrong side of 35, it's entirely possible he won't get the 28 million guaranteed + at least 6 more million that he has waiting for him if he stays with the Surfers.

The problem here is that Ploid has low loyalty and at 34/35, going into free agency now might be the only way to secure a 10 million a year guaranteed deal until his age 40 season. But would anyone take that risk? Compounding the problem is that Ploid's losing points in speed, making his penchant for doubles, triples, and stolen bases rather hard to imagine as he ages. He's also absolutely no longer a third baseman unless you're really going to test that "defense at third is overrated" theory. So in essence, he's an aging 1B/DH trying to make history but with his own history working against him.

If OOTP is looking at recent off-seasons, I think Ploid would be foolish to throw 34 million away. But the game is rather bad at determining market value.

I'm guessing he OPTS IN, and Long Beach probably hopes I'm wrong.

OF Tarald Langli, Phoenix
Age: 26
2061 Stats of Note: N/A, Played in minors the entirety of 2061
If Opts In: 6 Million in 2062 and 6.9 Million (nice) in 2063

Phoenix's entry on this list is a bit strange due to the unique ways in which the Reclusive GMTM manages his overall organization. Langli spent 30 games with the A-level team and 101 in AA being the envy of his minor-league salary peers by being paid 4.9 million. Because of this, it's almost impossible for me to know what the player will do. Is he angry enough about being in the minors that he'll turn down nearly 13 million? I don't think so, especially since his attitude is "normal" meaning he's not upset about his lot in life.

My bet is that Tarald takes his money and keeps buying the entire AA squad drinks for however long the Talons opt to keep him on the farm.

I think Tarald OPTS IN.

Rich Dares, Portland
Age: 33
2061 Stats of Note: 2.7 WAR in 126 games, .748 OPS, 32SB, 1.4 ZR at 2B, 4.58 Range at 2B
If Opts In: 9.5 Million in 2062, 9.5 Million in 2063, Team Options in 2064 9.5 Million (2.5 Million Buy Out) and 2065 9.5 Million (2.5 Million Buy Out)

I think Dares is a really interesting case and not just because Ron hates him. He's 33, so he's not quite yet in that danger zone, his stats, while on the decline (5.9 WAR in 2059, 3.3 WAR in 2060) are still very good for a position that doesn't necessary have a lot of players who can be good offensively and acceptable defensively, and the only skill clearly eroding is his "power" which was never a part of his game in the first place. He still has 10 speed, 10 ability at 2B, 10 error, and 10 arm.

In other words, the type of player who *might* be able to get a better deal than 21.5 million guaranteed over the next three seasons. In fact, having typed that out, I think he absolutely could get more than that. Someone could offer 11 or 12 for the next 2 years with a third year buyout that's similar to the one he has now and he's in pure profit mode. Would they be overpaying? Yes, but a team like Montreal might roll those dice to improve an offense that sputtered in the Monty.

But! There's a mitigating factor here Dares is "wrecked" per OOTP and spent quite a bit of time this past season nicked up in various ways. That might turn enough GMs off to keep him from getting a similar payday to what he has now. I mentioned Montreal, and while an attractive landing spot for mutual needs, they might feel like he's a bad option because he could lose a leg running out a ground ball.

So yeah, it's a bit of a gamble. However, my feeling is that OOTP doesn't factor injury history as much as performance, and he's still performing strongly.

I think Dares OPTS OUT.

SS Niaz Minhas, Twin Cities
Age: 33
2061 Stats of Note: .3 WAR (!), .208 average (!!), only 8 games at SS (!!!), 8.0 ZR at 2B
If Opts In: 12.5 Million in 2062, Team Option in 2063 of 12.5 Million in 2063 (3 Million Buy Out)

Wow. I wasn't aware of how far Minhas had regressed from his 2.1/2.7 WAR days in Pheonix. I guess he was powered by Grand Slams or something. He's not a SS anymore, despite being listed there, and while his defense is very good at second base, there's a lot of second basemen out there who can give you close to that ZR without paying 3 to 4 WAR money. His injuries are just the icing on the cake her.e As with the Philosopher, I wouldn't be shocked if Minhas was left on the outside looking in come February if he opts out. Which means...

I think Minhas OPTS IN.

So of the 5 players listed here, I think 4 of them opt in, with three of them being a no-brainer IMO from their perspective. The 5th (Dares) wouldn't be badly served by opting in as well, but I can see him opting out because of my reasons listed above. Odds are, I'm being a bit too logical and this will be more like 3 in, 2 out, but we'll know soon.

What do you think? Am I off the mark, or close the bullseye? I've never done this before, so I'm really curious!

[RonCo]

I hate Rich Dares.

[Trebro]

I hate Rich Dares.

But do you think he opts out?

[ae37jr]

I 100% expect Minhas to opt in. I knew that going into the trade where he was a negative value "even out the financials" player. I kinda like him though. Not $12.5 million like him, but I like him. So while I hope he opts out, I'm not sad if he doesn't. He played dazzling defense at 2B and that really compliments our groundball staff.

[BaseClogger]

I always liked this feature so I’m glad you revived it. Your analysis was spot on.

[Krathan]

I think you’re probably right on these guys but I’ve been surprised by player decision before.

[RonCo]

I hate Rich Dares.

But do you think he opts out?

It's basically a $24m - 2 year deal, so he should probably stick with Portland. He probably needs to get something like $6m per for 5 years to do better. Minimum.

[Trebro]

I think you’re probably right on these guys but I’ve been surprised by player decision before.

As I said, one of 'em is gonna do something stupid. Just not sure who.

[BaseClogger]

0% chance anybody other than Ploid or dares opts out.

[Lane]

Ploid is interesting for the reasons you mentioned. Wouldn't get the same AAV on a new contract, but potentially could get more total $$. Or, at least his agent will tell him that he could. Like you said, last chance for a big contract.

But, if he opts in, I've been happy with him at 3B and I'm pretty good on cap space for a while.

[7teen]

I am anxiously awaiting the file update to see what happens with Dares. And he truly is an interesting case. He's regressed over the last 3 years but has been very solid even through that.

Personally, I hope he stays. But in real life, I think a guy like that opts-out and hopes for one more big deal with some guaranteed money. I'd bet, based on in his WAR the last 3 years, he'd have to think he could get a 3 year, $30-$33 million dollar deal knowing those last two team options aren't likely to get picked up.

[BaseClogger]

His infield range is going to lump to 6 as soon as somebody gives him three years guaranteed.

[Trebro]

I am anxiously awaiting the file update to see what happens with Dares. And he truly is an interesting case. He's regressed over the last 3 years but has been very solid even through that.

Personally, I hope he stays. But in real life, I think a guy like that opts-out and hopes for one more big deal with some guaranteed money. I'd bet, based on in his WAR the last 3 years, he'd have to think he could get a 3 year, $30-$33 million dollar deal knowing those last two team options aren't likely to get picked up.

I agree with you and I think the OOTP engine is going to agree with you. However, knowing what the computer doesn't about BBA GMs, I'm a little skeptical that he'll get that kind of a deal. Will be fun to watch.

[Trebro]

His infield range is going to lump to 6 as soon as somebody gives him three years guaranteed.

Only if he signs with me!

(I'm not even remotely interested FWiW)

[jiminyhopkins]

Langli was a 6/10/8 guy at one (brief) point under the old ratings. Now he's just the best paid 5th outfielder in the league. One of the downsides of the 'giving unproven guys major league deals' strat.

[Trebro]

So...how'd I do?

Well, I got Ploid "wrong" but I think there's an asterisk on that one, because I said I thought he might opt out hoping for one final big deal. But I also maintain it will end up being a mistake where OOTP reality and how BBA GMs operate doesn't mesh. I just don't see the appetite for a slap-hitting DH who's starting to get hurt all the time. Let's see where he ends up and for how much. I'm going to guess a one-year deal that's under 10 million, maybe a 1 year + option deal for around the same with the buy out.

Otherwise, I got the rest correct, though I think Dares, too, might have out-clevered himself. Also would love to be a fly on the wall in Montreal right now to hear their discussion. I think he gets 2 years + 3rd year option for a bit less than if he had stayed.

[BaseClogger]

Thinking Ploid made a mistake.

[Lane]

Thinking Ploid made a mistake.

i'm a contract structure genius clearly

[BaseClogger]

Thinking Ploid made a mistake.

i'm a contract structure genius clearly

Well, you and John for getting him at 1/$8M.

[chicoruiz]

Ploid and Nisanci give me two guys rated as “wrecked” in the middle of the order…. What could possibly go wrong?