My point in splitting it this way (beyond the extra Tallon adoration) is to focus our attention on the players who made this decision. One would expect that players who felt the where due more than their market worth would stay in place, right? This is always the argument against giving player options at all. Players who exceed their values will skip town while players who under perform will stick around and become lead weights.
So, let’s look at the guys who chose to stay on their team’s gravy train, and see what we think.
Note: the “Type” is O for opt-out and P for player option
| Team | Pos | Name | Age | Type | Notes | 2058 | 2059 | 2060 | 2061 | 2062 | 2063 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATC | SP | Steven Anderton | 29 | O | $8.5m(O) | $8.5m | $9.0m | $9.0m(P) | $9.0m(P) | ||
| ATC | LF | Lee Hogan | 33 | O | $13.5m(O) | $12.6m | $12.0m(P) | ||||
| JAX | 2B | Daniel Pepper | 37 | O | $12.2m(O) | $15.4m | $19.8m(T) | $19.8m(V) | |||
| PHX | SP | Damian Theophanous | 33 | O | Injured | $12.0m(O) | $12.2m | $11.2m | $11.2m(T) | $11.2m(P) | |
| PHX | LF | Michael O'Halloran | 26 | O | $5.9m(O) | $6.1m | $6.1m | $8.4m | $9.5m(A) | $11.0m(A) | |
| POR | SS | Damek Korbel | 39 | O | $10.6m(O) | $10.6m | |||||
| POR | RP | Luis Equivel | 36 | O | $3.4m(O) | $3.0m | $3.0m(P) | ||||
| RCK | SP | Nathaniel Davis | 34 | O | $12.2m(O) | $12.2m | $10.8m(V) | ||||
| ATC | 3B | Ernesto González | 38 | P | $2.6m | $2.6m(P) | |||||
| BOI | SP | Marvin Winston | 34 | P | $9.0m | $9.6m(P) | $10.3m(T) | ||||
| BRK | LF | Pete Brace | 34 | P | $10.6m | $10.6m(P) | |||||
| CHI | RF | Bret Powers | 38 | P | $11.0m | $9.0m(P) | |||||
| CLG | SS | Nick Frude | 31 | P | $3.3m | $3.3m(P) | |||||
| MAD | SP | Jon Brown | 30 | P | $8.5m | $9.5m(P) | |||||
| PHX | SP | Jaypee Estancia | 32 | P | $9.5m | $9.6m(P) | |||||
| VAL | CL | Martin Román | 38 | P | $4.2m | $4.2m(P) |
The first guy I’ll note Atlantic City’s 38-yearold. Ernesto Gonzalez, who I expected to stick around for the extra $2.6M in petty cash, but who decided to hang them up. So there’s one decision that was probably best for his family and all that, but not so good for his bank account.
For my money, there exist five cases in the list above that I ponder the decision to stay. The five are:
Madison’s 30-year-old SP Jon Brown, who I think would have likely increased his annual salary past $9.5M (or maybe not), bit would almost certainly have extended the duration of the deal by at least a couple years. Add in the fact that he would be out of the yucky Heartland division, and this little piggie going to market is a winner all around. I would guess Madison fans are happy he chose to stay.
Despite being 38, I expected Valencia’s RP Martin Roman to skip town, too. He’s not getting any younger, and he’s coming off a solid year after injury. At the end of the day it’s not a horrible decision either way, but I’m guessing he would have done better than that $4.2m/1 that he’s riding now.
In my mind, I think those two players almost certainly would have been better off hitting the market.
The three others I’m on the fence about are Atlantic City Starter Steven Anderton, Jacksonville 2B Daniel Pepper, and Phoenix SP Jaypee Estancia.
Estancia is the simplest to look at. His situation was similar to Brown’s in that he took one year and $9.5M and turned down a shot at going to the market. Unlike Brown, I think Estancia was more likely to take a pay cut on the year, but at 32 and with a decent track record, I’m guessing he would have gathered a few seasons of stability. It’s a tossup, I suppose, but I come down gently on the side of him leaving.
Anderton is a harder case. On one hand, he opted into a guaranteed $35.8M cash flow that he can control over four seasons. On the other hand, at 29, he’s been throwing above average results with a fairly bad team. I think he’d have probably done better to leave, but I can’t say he’d have done a lot better. I’m not sure how soon the Gamblers will be competitive, though. So there’s that.
Pepper’s case is interesting because he opted into a deal that he pretty much as to see as a 1-season $15.4M deal. I mean. I strongly suggest those two $19.8M years are the BBA’s version of performance art. Here one day, gone the next. Ultimately this might have been a good idea for him. He’s clearly past his prime, and I’m not sure what the market for him is going to me. In a sane world, he won’t beat it, but FA is not sane. I wouldn’t have been shocked if he’d gone to market, and I wouldn’t have been flabbergasted if he managed to get a better deal. (of course, there is the fact that Pepper has pulled down $285M in his career, so I don’t think a few million either way is going to make a difference to him and the significant other.
Other than these cases, though, I think the rest were pretty much right to stick with the gift they had rather than take the box Carol Wayne was standing by (he says, dating himself horribly). With 16 players in the mix, that means that in my mind, 11 of them made a good decision to stay with their teams. If you agree with my logic above, four players made a bad decision and should have tested the market, and one (Pepper) could have gone either way.
Does that say the Player Option is dangerous?
Sure. Lots of things can go wrong. For example, the case of Phoenix Starter Damien Theophanous (who Phoenix would have likely been thrilled to opt in in normal circumstances) is dealing with the uncertainties that come with a big injury. There’s no way he should have opted out, and of course he didn’t. Will he recover to his 90 FIP- past? No idea. But if he doesn’t that option will cost the team $24M before the team options kick in. Pete Brace has been living high on the hog for awhile. Brooklyn fans will have to deal with him for another.
But there seems to exist a decent chance it’ll go the other way, too.
So player options (as being decided in v25 this year) are probably a little stacked against the team, as it probably should be, but it’s not a guaranteed slam dunk.
