Player Potential in OOTP 25

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Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Bob Breum » Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:04 pm

We have all been trying to make sense of the ratings changes after our league migrated to OOTP 25.

This is an effort to answer these questions:
  • Has the average potential of the player universe changed?
  • Are there more or fewer players with low potential?
  • Are there more or fewer players with high potential?
To answer these questions, I exported the respective player universes to Excel and focused only on Potential.

Here’s what the data looks like:

ootp24.png
ootp25.png

Here are some statistics:

MetricOOTP 24OOTP 25
Std Dev28.333.0
Mean36.936.9
Median3535
Mode2035
From the graphs, you can see that the vast wasteland of 20 potential players in OOTP 24 has been reduced to an amount that is statistically consistent with the bell curve shape of the rest of the data in OOTP 25.

OOTP 25 forms a neat bell curve distribution centered on 35 potential, spoiled only by an unusually high number of 80 potential players.

From the statistics, you can see that the mean and median are unchanged. The standard deviation actually increases slightly because the large number of 20 potential players that were closer to the mean was reduced.

To answer our questions from above:
  • Has the average potential of the player universe changed? No.
  • Are there more or fewer players with low potential?
    • If low potential is defined as below average (35 potential), then the answer is fewer. It decreased from 2,807 to 2,608 (7.1%).
    • If low potential is defined as less than 50, the answer is more. It increased from 6,138 to 6,517 (6.2%). In either case, not a significant change.
  • Are there more or fewer players with high potential?
    • If you define high potential as above average (35 potential), then the answer is fewer. It decreased from 3,199 to 3,043 (4.9%).
    • If you define high potential as greater than 50, the answer is dramatically fewer. It decreased from 668 to 356 (46.7%), almost halving the population of 55+ potential players.
Last edited by Bob Breum on Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Krathan » Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:15 pm

Thanks. I found this really interesting and informative.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by RT60 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:23 pm

This is extremely helpful!

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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by aaronweiner » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:39 am

46% is such a dramatic change that it’s almost hard to figure out what the new system is, or how it was derived. Did it come from nowhere? Steve Holcombe dropped from an 8 contact potential to a 5. Do we know why? Bae Pae rose to a 7. Do we know why there either? I have suspicions but it would be nice to have something more definitive.

What I would really like to know is within that 46% shift, which players fell the most? How far did they fall on average? What are some common characteristics of fallers?

I might also be interested in the players who went from 20 to 30, since there appears to be an awful lot of them. What kinds of players did this?

I think knowing these facts would really help in team building and management under what is obviously the new normal for OOTP.

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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by trmmilwwi » Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:01 am

Love this info, great to see! I am a much bigger fan of the content in the v25 graph.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:48 am

Love to see a normal curve take shape.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:53 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:39 am
46% is such a dramatic change that it’s almost hard to figure out what the new system is, or how it was derived. Did it come from nowhere? Steve Holcombe dropped from an 8 contact potential to a 5. Do we know why? Bae Pae rose to a 7. Do we know why there either? I have suspicions but it would be nice to have something more definitive.

What I would really like to know is within that 46% shift, which players fell the most? How far did they fall on average? What are some common characteristics of fallers?

I might also be interested in the players who went from 20 to 30, since there appears to be an awful lot of them. What kinds of players did this?

I think knowing these facts would really help in team building and management under what is obviously the new normal for OOTP.
What I’ve read is that the formula to calculate Contact and Movement changed. Contact used to have power as a component and that was stripped away. So in general, your significant contact droppers will be power hitters.

Those ratings don’t have direct impact on the game engine and are metrics as opposed to ratings.

Anecdotally, I think most of the 20s moving up to 30ish are relievers. The old game severely underrated relievers and half our lower minors pitching staffs used to be filled with them.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by CTBrewCrew » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:53 am

Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by ae37jr » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:09 am

I like the change. It's just causing a big WTF moment. The line between a BBA bench player(even a second division starter)and a AAA player seems a lot more foggy than it was.

I think that is good in the long run. Much better than seeing players with 27 stuff on a scale of 1-10.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by RonCo » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:28 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:39 am
Bae Pae rose to a 7.
As Kurt noted, the meaning of "contact" has now changed to be "Batting Average Without HR." So, in reality, it's a Bad Idea to compare contact in the two versions because they mean different things.

That said, Bae Pae's Contact grew because he's a very poor Power hitter relative to the league, but a considerably above average BABIP/AVK combo.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by RonCo » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:37 am

Random thought of the moment:

Per Alan's chart there are 725 players that v25 rates "50" or higher. With a perfectly distributed scatter, that works out to 22.65 per team.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Bob Breum » Wed Apr 17, 2024 1:56 pm

BaseClogger wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:53 am
Anecdotally, I think most of the 20s moving up to 30ish are relievers. The old game severely underrated relievers and half our lower minors pitching staffs used to be filled with them.
Nine players bumped 25 points from 20 to 45. All of them are relief pitchers.

AgeNameOrgLevel
26Armando CabreraLouisvilleAA
30Howard DouglassFree Agent-
23Gilberto FelexCharlotteA
20Mario JamesTwin CitiesS A
21Rafael MoyaBoiseA
20Emmanuel PaganiBrooklynAA
21Caesar SalinasCalgaryS A
27Agatone StasiMontrealAA
21Jose ValdesJacksonvilleA
An additional 204 players bumped up 20 points, all pitchers. All but two are relief pitchers. The two SPs are 23-year-old John Mellon with Charm City's AAA affiliate and Rockville's Erasmus Gianakopulos in Short Season A. The latter rocketed from 50 to 70.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Bob Breum » Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:42 pm

CTBrewCrew wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:53 am
Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25
Two players lost 30 points of potential in the migration. Portland's 2B Edward Roundfield IV, ranked as the #20 overall prospect, declined from 75 to 45. Yellow Springs' CF Carter Cramer, ranked as the #19 overall prospect, dropped from 80 to 50. Both are sluggers who had 10 power in OOTP 24. Both were first round draft picks.

Thirteen players lost 25 points.

NamePosOrgLevelAge
Lucas RoseSPPhoenix TalonsMLB25
Sloth FratelliCOmaha CyclonesMLB31
Run-ming Gui3BBikini KrillMLB31
Stephen SchmidtRFBikini KrilA21
Alfredo AnayaSPNashville BluebirdsAA22
Michael BuckleyRFBikini KrillMLB24
Jorge Cano3BNashville BluebirdsMLB26
Dabir NawfalSPRockville PikemenMLB25
Altair TableriouRFValencia StarsAA23
Maimun bin Tayyib3BDes Moines KernelsS A22
Alfredo Trujillo2BBrooklyn RobinsAAA22
Fernando BusheyCFBikini KrillA21
Jonathan RobinsonCFOmaha CyclonesINT17
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Dington » Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:52 pm

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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:05 pm

Bob Breum wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:42 pm
CTBrewCrew wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:53 am
Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25
Two players lost 30 points of potential in the migration. Portland's 2B Edward Roundfield IV, ranked as the #20 overall prospect, declined from 75 to 45. Yellow Springs' CF Carter Cramer, ranked as the #19 overall prospect, dropped from 80 to 50. Both are sluggers who had 10 power in OOTP 24. Both were first round draft picks.

Thirteen players lost 25 points.

NamePosOrgLevelAge
Lucas RoseSPPhoenix TalonsMLB25
Sloth FratelliCOmaha CyclonesMLB31
Run-ming Gui3BBikini KrillMLB31
Stephen SchmidtRFBikini KrilA21
Alfredo AnayaSPNashville BluebirdsAA22
Michael BuckleyRFBikini KrillMLB24
Jorge Cano3BNashville BluebirdsMLB26
Dabir NawfalSPRockville PikemenMLB25
Altair TableriouRFValencia StarsAA23
Maimun bin Tayyib3BDes Moines KernelsS A22
Alfredo Trujillo2BBrooklyn RobinsAAA22
Fernando BusheyCFBikini KrillA21
Jonathan RobinsonCFOmaha CyclonesINT17
I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by 7teen » Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:07 pm

Roundfield's drop sucks for me. Former 1st round pick. He wasn't a 75 player anyway but was hoping he'd at least translate into a 55 player in the new game. He was something like a 6-6-10-6-6 2B in v24 which isn't a 75 rated player in my opinion anyway, but his contact took a huge hit in v25.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by Bob Breum » Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:36 pm

I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?
Eighteen position players improved by ten points:

NamePosOrgLevelAge
Oliver RomanCChicago Black SoxS A22
Luis MartinezCVancouver MountiesR21
Eric WhiteCFChicago Black SoxR20
Cidullasa Prasana1BCharm City JimmiesINT17
Hideaki Ohayashi1BPortland LumberjacksMLB24
Pedro Marti­nezCMexico City AztecsA20
Paul GantLFRocky Mountain OystersS A21
Brent AtteridgeRFTwin Cities River MonstersAA24
Okyay NisanciLFSacramento Mad PopesMLB32
Jorge RiosCCharm City JimmiesA21
Alex TulkRFMexico City AztecsA21
Nazeem bin KareemSSNew Orleans CrawdadsS A22
Steve HammockCSan Antonio OutlawsR20
Steve Plummer3BYellow Springs NineS A22
Kenan Inonu1BCharm City JimmiesINT16
Jesus AliceaRFLouisville SluggersS A20
Salvador Bernal1BSan Antonio OutlawsR21
Wilson OrtizCOmaha CyclonesA23
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by aaronweiner » Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:42 pm

Looking at Valdes, I have no idea why he jumped so much.

The game likes Dan Voelzke a lot more than it used to.

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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by shoeless.db » Wed Apr 17, 2024 4:12 pm

Bob Breum wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:36 pm
I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?
Eighteen position players improved by ten points:

NamePosOrgLevelAge
Oliver RomanCChicago Black SoxS A22
Luis MartinezCVancouver MountiesR21
Eric WhiteCFChicago Black SoxR20
Cidullasa Prasana1BCharm City JimmiesINT17
Hideaki Ohayashi1BPortland LumberjacksMLB24
Pedro Marti­nezCMexico City AztecsA20
Paul GantLFRocky Mountain OystersS A21
Brent AtteridgeRFTwin Cities River MonstersAA24
Okyay NisanciLFSacramento Mad PopesMLB32
Jorge RiosCCharm City JimmiesA21
Alex TulkRFMexico City AztecsA21
Nazeem bin KareemSSNew Orleans CrawdadsS A22
Steve HammockCSan Antonio OutlawsR20
Steve Plummer3BYellow Springs NineS A22
Kenan Inonu1BCharm City JimmiesINT16
Jesus AliceaRFLouisville SluggersS A20
Salvador Bernal1BSan Antonio OutlawsR21
Wilson OrtizCOmaha CyclonesA23
Nisanci in this list is crazy. He's older than the next guy by eight years.
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Re: Player Potential in OOTP 25

Post by CTBrewCrew » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:26 pm

No wolves on either risers or fallers….
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