The Brewster

We have all been trying to make sense of the ratings changes after our league migrated to OOTP 25.

This is an effort to answer these questions:

• Has the average potential of the player universe changed?

• Are there more or fewer players with low potential?

• Are there more or fewer players with high potential?

To answer these questions, I exported the respective player universes to Excel and focused only on Potential.

Here’s what the data looks like:


Here are some statistics:

Metric	OOTP 24	OOTP 25
Std Dev	28.3	33.0
Mean	36.9	36.9
Median	35	35
Mode	20	35

From the graphs, you can see that the vast wasteland of 20 potential players in OOTP 24 has been reduced to an amount that is statistically consistent with the bell curve shape of the rest of the data in OOTP 25.

OOTP 25 forms a neat bell curve distribution centered on 35 potential, spoiled only by an unusually high number of 80 potential players.

From the statistics, you can see that the mean and median are unchanged. The standard deviation actually increases slightly because the large number of 20 potential players that were closer to the mean was reduced.

To answer our questions from above:

• Has the average potential of the player universe changed? No.

• Are there more or fewer players with low potential?
  • If low potential is defined as below average (35 potential), then the answer is fewer. It decreased from 2,807 to 2,608 (7.1%).
  • If low potential is defined as less than 50, the answer is more. It increased from 6,138 to 6,517 (6.2%). In either case, not a significant change.

• Are there more or fewer players with high potential?
  • If you define high potential as above average (35 potential), then the answer is fewer. It decreased from 3,199 to 3,043 (4.9%).
  • If you define high potential as greater than 50, the answer is dramatically fewer. It decreased from 668 to 356 (46.7%), almost halving the population of 55+ potential players.

Thanks. I found this really interesting and informative.

This is extremely helpful!

46% is such a dramatic change that it’s almost hard to figure out what the new system is, or how it was derived. Did it come from nowhere? Steve Holcombe dropped from an 8 contact potential to a 5. Do we know why? Bae Pae rose to a 7. Do we know why there either? I have suspicions but it would be nice to have something more definitive.

What I would really like to know is within that 46% shift, which players fell the most? How far did they fall on average? What are some common characteristics of fallers?

I might also be interested in the players who went from 20 to 30, since there appears to be an awful lot of them. What kinds of players did this?

I think knowing these facts would really help in team building and management under what is obviously the new normal for OOTP.

Love this info, great to see! I am a much bigger fan of the content in the v25 graph.

Love to see a normal curve take shape.

aaronweiner wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:39 am

46% is such a dramatic change that it’s almost hard to figure out what the new system is, or how it was derived. Did it come from nowhere? Steve Holcombe dropped from an 8 contact potential to a 5. Do we know why? Bae Pae rose to a 7. Do we know why there either? I have suspicions but it would be nice to have something more definitive.

What I would really like to know is within that 46% shift, which players fell the most? How far did they fall on average? What are some common characteristics of fallers?

I might also be interested in the players who went from 20 to 30, since there appears to be an awful lot of them. What kinds of players did this?

I think knowing these facts would really help in team building and management under what is obviously the new normal for OOTP.

What I’ve read is that the formula to calculate Contact and Movement changed. Contact used to have power as a component and that was stripped away. So in general, your significant contact droppers will be power hitters.

Those ratings don’t have direct impact on the game engine and are metrics as opposed to ratings.

Anecdotally, I think most of the 20s moving up to 30ish are relievers. The old game severely underrated relievers and half our lower minors pitching staffs used to be filled with them.

Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25

I like the change. It's just causing a big WTF moment. The line between a BBA bench player(even a second division starter)and a AAA player seems a lot more foggy than it was.

I think that is good in the long run. Much better than seeing players with 27 stuff on a scale of 1-10.

aaronweiner wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:39 am

Bae Pae rose to a 7.

As Kurt noted, the meaning of "contact" has now changed to be "Batting Average Without HR." So, in reality, it's a Bad Idea to compare contact in the two versions because they mean different things.

That said, Bae Pae's Contact grew because he's a very poor Power hitter relative to the league, but a considerably above average BABIP/AVK combo.

Random thought of the moment:

Per Alan's chart there are 725 players that v25 rates "50" or higher. With a perfectly distributed scatter, that works out to 22.65 per team.

BaseClogger wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:53 am

Anecdotally, I think most of the 20s moving up to 30ish are relievers. The old game severely underrated relievers and half our lower minors pitching staffs used to be filled with them.

Nine players bumped 25 points from 20 to 45. All of them are relief pitchers.

Age	Name	Org	Level
26	Armando Cabrera	Louisville	AA
30	Howard Douglass	Free Agent	-
23	Gilberto Felex	Charlotte	A
20	Mario James	Twin Cities	S A
21	Rafael Moya	Boise	A
20	Emmanuel Pagani	Brooklyn	AA
21	Caesar Salinas	Calgary	S A
27	Agatone Stasi	Montreal	AA
21	Jose Valdes	Jacksonville	A

An additional 204 players bumped up 20 points, all pitchers. All but two are relief pitchers. The two SPs are 23-year-old John Mellon with Charm City's AAA affiliate and Rockville's Erasmus Gianakopulos in Short Season A. The latter rocketed from 50 to 70.

CTBrewCrew wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:53 am

Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25

Two players lost 30 points of potential in the migration. Portland's 2B Edward Roundfield IV, ranked as the #20 overall prospect, declined from 75 to 45. Yellow Springs' CF Carter Cramer, ranked as the #19 overall prospect, dropped from 80 to 50. Both are sluggers who had 10 power in OOTP 24. Both were first round draft picks.

Thirteen players lost 25 points.

Name	Pos	Org	Level	Age
Lucas Rose	SP	Phoenix Talons	MLB	25
Sloth Fratelli	C	Omaha Cyclones	MLB	31
Run-ming Gui	3B	Bikini Krill	MLB	31
Stephen Schmidt	RF	Bikini Kril	A	21
Alfredo Anaya	SP	Nashville Bluebirds	AA	22
Michael Buckley	RF	Bikini Krill	MLB	24
Jorge Cano	3B	Nashville Bluebirds	MLB	26
Dabir Nawfal	SP	Rockville Pikemen	MLB	25
Altair Tableriou	RF	Valencia Stars	AA	23
Maimun bin Tayyib	3B	Des Moines Kernels	S A	22
Alfredo Trujillo	2B	Brooklyn Robins	AAA	22
Fernando Bushey	CF	Bikini Krill	A	21
Jonathan Robinson	CF	Omaha Cyclones	INT	17

Cano was my most noticeable lump, but I’ll take a repeat of his rookie season every year.

Bob Breum wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:42 pm

CTBrewCrew wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:53 am

Interesting chart. It would be cool to see who the biggest risers / fallers were from 24 to 25

Two players lost 30 points of potential in the migration. Portland's 2B Edward Roundfield IV, ranked as the #20 overall prospect, declined from 75 to 45. Yellow Springs' CF Carter Cramer, ranked as the #19 overall prospect, dropped from 80 to 50. Both are sluggers who had 10 power in OOTP 24. Both were first round draft picks.

Thirteen players lost 25 points.

Name	Pos	Org	Level	Age
Lucas Rose	SP	Phoenix Talons	MLB	25
Sloth Fratelli	C	Omaha Cyclones	MLB	31
Run-ming Gui	3B	Bikini Krill	MLB	31
Stephen Schmidt	RF	Bikini Kril	A	21
Alfredo Anaya	SP	Nashville Bluebirds	AA	22
Michael Buckley	RF	Bikini Krill	MLB	24
Jorge Cano	3B	Nashville Bluebirds	MLB	26
Dabir Nawfal	SP	Rockville Pikemen	MLB	25
Altair Tableriou	RF	Valencia Stars	AA	23
Maimun bin Tayyib	3B	Des Moines Kernels	S A	22
Alfredo Trujillo	2B	Brooklyn Robins	AAA	22
Fernando Bushey	CF	Bikini Krill	A	21
Jonathan Robinson	CF	Omaha Cyclones	INT	17

I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?

Roundfield's drop sucks for me. Former 1st round pick. He wasn't a 75 player anyway but was hoping he'd at least translate into a 55 player in the new game. He was something like a 6-6-10-6-6 2B in v24 which isn't a 75 rated player in my opinion anyway, but his contact took a huge hit in v25.

I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?

Eighteen position players improved by ten points:

Name	Pos	Org	Level	Age
Oliver Roman	C	Chicago Black Sox	S A	22
Luis Martinez	C	Vancouver Mounties	R	21
Eric White	CF	Chicago Black Sox	R	20
Cidullasa Prasana	1B	Charm City Jimmies	INT	17
Hideaki Ohayashi	1B	Portland Lumberjacks	MLB	24
Pedro Marti­nez	C	Mexico City Aztecs	A	20
Paul Gant	LF	Rocky Mountain Oysters	S A	21
Brent Atteridge	RF	Twin Cities River Monsters	AA	24
Okyay Nisanci	LF	Sacramento Mad Popes	MLB	32
Jorge Rios	C	Charm City Jimmies	A	21
Alex Tulk	RF	Mexico City Aztecs	A	21
Nazeem bin Kareem	SS	New Orleans Crawdads	S A	22
Steve Hammock	C	San Antonio Outlaws	R	20
Steve Plummer	3B	Yellow Springs Nine	S A	22
Kenan Inonu	1B	Charm City Jimmies	INT	16
Jesus Alicea	RF	Louisville Sluggers	S A	20
Salvador Bernal	1B	San Antonio Outlaws	R	21
Wilson Ortiz	C	Omaha Cyclones	A	23

Looking at Valdes, I have no idea why he jumped so much.

The game likes Dan Voelzke a lot more than it used to.

Bob Breum wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:36 pm

I'm eating this shit up. Who were the position players who increased the most?

Eighteen position players improved by ten points:

Name	Pos	Org	Level	Age
Oliver Roman	C	Chicago Black Sox	S A	22
Luis Martinez	C	Vancouver Mounties	R	21
Eric White	CF	Chicago Black Sox	R	20
Cidullasa Prasana	1B	Charm City Jimmies	INT	17
Hideaki Ohayashi	1B	Portland Lumberjacks	MLB	24
Pedro Marti­nez	C	Mexico City Aztecs	A	20
Paul Gant	LF	Rocky Mountain Oysters	S A	21
Brent Atteridge	RF	Twin Cities River Monsters	AA	24
Okyay Nisanci	LF	Sacramento Mad Popes	MLB	32
Jorge Rios	C	Charm City Jimmies	A	21
Alex Tulk	RF	Mexico City Aztecs	A	21
Nazeem bin Kareem	SS	New Orleans Crawdads	S A	22
Steve Hammock	C	San Antonio Outlaws	R	20
Steve Plummer	3B	Yellow Springs Nine	S A	22
Kenan Inonu	1B	Charm City Jimmies	INT	16
Jesus Alicea	RF	Louisville Sluggers	S A	20
Salvador Bernal	1B	San Antonio Outlaws	R	21
Wilson Ortiz	C	Omaha Cyclones	A	23

Nisanci in this list is crazy. He's older than the next guy by eight years.

No wolves on either risers or fallers….