Analysis of the First Round of the 2058 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a likely one-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. Those of you looking for in-depth analysis are in luck - I was thinking in the pool just yesterday. It was, admittedly, a shallow pool - hopefully the draft isn't! You'll be happy to know that when I was in high school they told my teammates they were playing with a dingbat - everyone did, they were aluminum. The length of the draft is shorter but my angst over draft picks is exactly the same as always - what's with that? Do not use as water wings or a paddleboard.

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First Round Analysis:

1. SP Seth Weller (Atlantic City): Weller was the scouts consensus #1 overall pitching prospect in a draft much longer on hitting prospects than pitching. Southpaw Weller is raw at age 16, but otherwise checks all the boxes: he throws very hard for both a lefty and a teenager, he is in fantastic shape and could go deep into ballgames, he has potentially strong command of five pitches and he’s a solid citizen. The lefty hails from Manhattan and should become a quick fan favorite in Atlantic City if he develops.

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2. CF Fernando Bushey (Bikini): For a place named after a two-piece, they sure chose a guy that’s a one-piece. Bushey’s calling card is power, and the righty centerfielder hit 17 homers in 210 at bats last year in college. Bushey’s defense is just average for a centerfielder, and he’s a righty, low-contact hitter who’s likely to strike out too much. Bushey offsets the obvious flaws by being nearly fully developed as a hitter, and he is likely to be an outstanding teammate, so it seems that the worst case scenario here is that he’s a boom or bust centerfielder with a mediocre glove.

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3. SP Rusty Miller (Yellow Springs): You gotta wonder what Rusty’s birth name is, because that’s the last adjective I would use to describe this accomplished righty. Miller, the 2056 Fox Mulder Award Winner, has been an excellent college pitcher for three years and no apparent flaws, with five pitches he can throw for strikes. Miller would benefit a lot from a velocity increase, but is otherwise a finished product, hitting mid-90s on the gun and with every attribute you would want from a young pitcher. No injury history, good intangibles.

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4. SP Dhrtatman Seshadri (Chicago): Better build a macro – or give him a nickname. Seshadri is the biggest risk/reward player in the draft, as after an outstanding senior season in college the hard-throwing lefty tore his rotator cuff, an injury from which he is still recovering at draft time. The scouts suggest that he has actually been getting stronger rehabbing from his injury, but time will tell as to whether that’s true, especially concerning his previously plus endurance. Should be a great teammate and if he comes back solid from the injury could come on in a hurry, as he’s well developed for his age.

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5. LF Takanobu Komatsu (Edmonton): Komatsu wasn’t rated as highly by the scouts as the other three outfielders in the top ten, but he is potentially the best of the bunch. The 2058 IFC Hitter of the Year is a rock-solid two way outfielder, with solid powerhitting skills and defensive ratings and solid speed. Naturally gifted athletically, Komatsu is sort of an average guy in a clubhouse but shouldn’t make waves. For a recent prospect Komatsu is above-average in every way, and “Heartbreaker,” as he is called, could warm the hearts of Edmonton fans when he finally develops.

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6. LF Bill Frederick (Portland): Frederick is very likely the best pure hitter in the draft, and while scouts in the BBA have favored power over contact in recent years (based on their judgment of the next two guys), Frederick’s bat should play well at the next level. A classical contact/power player, Frederick may have some issues with consistency both offensively and defensively but should fall squarely on the positive side most years. Has a significant platoon rating which will likely serve him well at the next level. Frederick has had a history of back and lower body injuries and does have some trust issues with authority, but he should be a pretty good player.


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7. 2B Chin Tran-Nhu (Brooklyn): There have been several solid players lately from Thailand, and Tran-Nhu is looking to join Xuan Ngo and Buwono Mainaky as the best Thai players in the BBA. The righty second baseman is a solid contact hitter who should be a consistent player at the plate. He has good pop for a middle infielder, if he manages to stick there, since there are questions about his glove long-term at the position. However, his bat should also play at first base, where he might be a multiple Yogi Zimmer winner. A potential team captain in the future if he can stay healthy, since the righty second sacker has also had multiple injuries in high school.

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8. LF Joshua Ackland (Rockville): It is a little bit shocking that the consensus #1 overall prospect in the draft falls all the way to #8, but the Australian righty slugger does have some question marks that make this lofty status a little less firm. An aggressive batter with an average batting eye, Ackland should be good for 25-30 homers a year and looks to be one of those righty batters with no holes against righties but who also smashes lefties. His mediocre defense aside, Ackland looks to be a solid prospect in a few years for the Pikemen.
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9. 1B John Harris (Hawaii): Hawaii drafts floor, not ceiling, at #9. Last year’s CCAS Bo Jordan runner-up, Harris has a lot of positives to recommend him. He comes nearly fully developed at first base, a switch-hitter who appears to have no holes at the plate, but also no particularly remarkable skills. His first base defense is absolutely top-notch, and he may be able to fill in at third base as well. The Northern Israeli may be a future team captain, and he keeps in prime condition.

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10. CF Hector Ruiz (Charlotte): Bushey has all the scouts aflutter, but it might be Ruiz that emerges from this draft as the top centerfielder in it. That’s not to say that Ruiz is a can’t-miss prospect in the outfield, but he has everything you’d want defensively: plus range, good instincts, and the ability to play all three outfield spots at an above-average level. His bat should play well in center field, with plus power for a centerfielder and acceptable plate skills from the right side of the plate. A fairly average guy personality-wise, Ruiz has natural athleticism which has thus far kept him off the IL.

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11. SP Takahiro Fujii (Madison): Fujii is the pitcher equivalent to John Harris: a high-floor, low-ceiling player who should come on very quickly. Fujii might benefit from additional velocity, but he is otherwise fully developed, with well-cultured stuff and plus movement. He throws extremely hard (99 MPH) and has outstanding intangibles. Now the bad news depressing his scouting ratings: he’s never going to work deeply into ballgames and can’t be converted into a reliever. Using the word “crafty” to describe a fireballer might be wrong, but he’ll have to figure out how to mix in his fairly average off-speed stuff. Madison is in last place in the Heartland, so drafting for floor is an interesting decision.

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12. 1B Jose Barrera (Louisville): Barrera has both a Bo Jordan Award and a runner-up sitting on his mantlepiece at home, and for good reason: the first baseman is a well rounded player. Well developed for 21 years old, Barrera combines solid power for a first baseman with an above-average batting eye and solid contact from the left hand side of the plate. Blessed with outstanding defensive instincts, Barrera could also be a Yogi Zimmer Award winner at first base. Barrera might have slight holes against lefties and some contact issues in general, but he keeps in top shape and he should be a solid Moneyball player fairly quickly.

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13. SP John Miller (San Antonio): Rusty and now John: it’s Miller Time! The 2058 Mike Swanson Award winner might be the last first rounder pick to have a chance to be the best pitcher in the draft, and that’s always a good thing, but for right now he’s just a raw 16 year old with a mile-high ceiling. Miller’s fastball already hits the mid-90s, but he follows it up with an assortment of plus off-speed stuff and potentially elite movement. Scouts don’t love his makeup, but he hasn’t had any notable injuries yet and he consistently throws ground balls.

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14. SP Cesar Franco (San Antonio): The Outlaws follow up a ceiling pick with a floor pick in Franco, a well-developed college southpaw who looks like a keeper. Franco doesn’t throw especially hard, but his calling card is skills: he has plus movement and control, he holds runners solidly, and while his stuff isn’t remarkable he can throw three pitches for strikes. Might not go deep into ballgames, but shouldn’t spend a lot of time on the IL, either, and he has great intangibles.

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15. SP Shiro Takahashi (Valencia): Our first three-pitch starter of the draft, Japan native Takahashi is a sidearm righty with a fastball/sinker/splitter combo, all of which he should eventually be able to throw for strikes. Takahashi has just about everything you’d want in a starter except major league readiness: he projects for solid control, plus movement, keeps in shape, and if he could gain some velocity it would help him; plus, his intangibles are absolutely top-notch and he holds runners well. A long way away at age 18, he’ll make an excellent project.

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16. 2B/IF Aggur Lugano (Phoenix): South African Lugano has his position listed at the four, but he’ll likely never be extremely good at it. What Lugano might do well is hit, and the righty slugger projects as a solid contact hitter with a decent batting eye and good power. If he can’t stick at second base his value falls somewhat, but players like this are often good first basemen.

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17. OF Pete Lewis (Boise): Lewis is a pure Moneyball slugger prospect, a home run/walk type player who has no other remarkable traits. Lewis is a lefty who is likely to have holes against lefties, but could be effective enough in 450 at bats to hit 30 homers. Not fast or especially outstanding defensively, Lewis does have excellent intangibles and his power is unusually well developed for a 16 year old.

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18. OF Rusty Harmon (Calgary): Harmon is an interesting choice for Calgary, who still has one of the better home run parks in the BBA and may have drafted a player who might never hit a home run for them. Harmon is a very advanced high school player who won two Platinum Sticks in center field but projects to a corner spot in the BBA. The righty does hit a lot of doubles and triples (20 triples in 120 games) and runs very well, and his consistent contact bat might make him a future leadoff hitter, albeit one that won’t walk much. Harmon is also a super individual who had straight As in high school, and he should be a solid pro.

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19. SP Rick Marriott (San Fernando): Marriott is an advanced college pitcher who still has to work on the finer points of pitching but has plus potential and should be in the BBA in two years, maybe three. His very advanced changeup plays off his sinker/cutter combination, forcing a lot of groundballs. He’s not likely to work deep into ballgames and there’s nothing particularly notable about his personality or fitness, but he should be a solid rotation starter, soon.

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20. CF/OF Chandler Larkman (Las Vegas): Lefty centerfielder Larkman had an astonishing year in college last year, finishing as the runner-up in the IFC Hitter of the Year race. Larkman is neither going to hit many major league homers nor draw many walks, but he should hit for consistent contact, hit doubles and steal some bases. You’d like him to be better defensively in center field, but you could do worse on a corner spot than Larkman.

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21. SS/UT (New Orleans for real! #realneworleansdraftpicknokidding): Flores has the dual issue of having both a low ceiling and a low floor, though he did win the Platinum Stick at shortstop last year in high school. A raw 16 year old with quite a way to go to the BBA, Flores is well regarded for his across the board fielding mechanics and had a solid high school career, but projects as a marginal hitter in the BBA. He also has skills in the outfield and could project as a supersub.

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22. 1B Julio Navarro (Jacksonville): Reportedly, the Donald Miller trade was made with the idea of signing Navarro, who will be expensive but also has a nonzero chance of being the best hitter in the draft. For now he’s just a raw 16 year old kid with a grown-up body (6’ 6”, 200). The slugging first baseman projects to have the best contact/power combination in the draft, and he ought to add a smattering of doubles and enough walks to keep pitchers honest.

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23. SP Harry Thomas (#realneworleansdraftpicknokidding): Harry Thomas is a hurler with a lack of control and a lot of velocity; he would definitely benefit from an increase in velocity and some positive reinforcement. Thomas needs to strongly develop his movement to be able to stick it to major league hitters with his fastball/curveball/sinker combo. He is extremely durable and is looking for a slot bonus, naturally. Great intangibles will help.

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24. C Jose Barrera (Omaha): Barrera has a good power/eye combination but will likely have trouble making contact; he hit .176 in his last year in high school with a negative WAR. His defense is solidly mediocre and seems like a good guy, in general, but it’s intriguing that they selected him over more highly rated catchers.

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25. 1B Jorge Gomez (Rocky Mountain): Gomez is another player who could hypothetically be the best hitter in the draft (see Julio Navarro three picks earlier). There are concerns; he’s already 21 and didn’t hit well in his senior year of college, and it appears he will have serious holes against lefties. But he could be a very effective contact/power combo from the left hand side of the plate. Good fitness will help.

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26. 3B Francisco Dominguez (Vancouver): Dominguez was a scout find as he didn’t hit well at all in high school, posting a negative WAR in two seasons. The 16 year old righty hitting third baseman projects as a potential major league starter, with solid potential across the board and decent speed. Dominguez has both strong intangibles and excellent fitness, and he should be effective eventually.

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27. SP Ian Tolley (Mexico City): The Aztecs take a stand on Tolley, a soft-tossing lefty from South Africa. Tolley would definitely benefit from additional velocity, and if he gets it he might be pretty good since he’s the potential for plus movement and control, throws tons of ground balls, and he’s very fit. Right now he’s a project, but he’s a good project to have.

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28. SP Jose Martinez (Montreal): Martinez is a teenage righty who hits the mid-90s on the gun, but is otherwise very raw. He has five pitches, none of which are projected as true out pitches, though additional velocity would almost certainly help. His calling card is a sharp bite on his pitches, but like most pitchers his age, he can’t really use the movement yet. Good intangibles will help.

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29. SP/RP Othman Abdul-Latif (Des Moines): A 2058 Fox Mulder Award winner in CCAS, Abdul-Latif is a righty who throws groundballs and regularly hits 97 on the gun with his sinker, but has some warts. He has poor endurance which will relegate him to the back half of the rotation. He was very advanced for college but none of his secondary skills are outstanding. He’d also make a poor reliever conversion as his two primary pitches are offspeed.

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30. LF Pedro Vargas (Long Beach): Vargas is a solid two-way outfield prospect, with extremely consistent skills throughout his repertoire. A switch-hitter, Vargas should make good and consistent contact and could have another hidden level against righties, always a good thing. Defensively he is mediocre, with acceptable skills and okay range for left field. Vargas should come on in a hurry, and his excellent intangibles should make him a desirable teammate.

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31. OF Justin Weatherford (Sacramento): Weatherford is probably destined for a lefty side of an outfield platoon, but might be able to hold serve against lefties. The likely left fielder is fairly advanced for 16 years old, and had a tremendous senior year, winning the Platinum Stick in center field; he won’t have the glove to play there in the bigs. Good intangibles will help.

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32. SP Jorge Guzman (Mexico City): Lefty Guzman had a tremendous college career, winning one Mike Swanson and finishing runner-up in another one. However, there are serious concerns about Guzman’s long-term makeup. He should be able to throw four pitches for strikes, but doesn’t have a true out pitch despite hitting 97 on the gun. He has poor stamina and scouts are concerned about his conditioning despite consistent weight lifting. If everything goes right he’s probably a #4 starter in the BBA.

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33. OF Chris Broadus (Twin Cities): Broadus played mostly centerfield in high school, but it won’t translate into the pros; however, he has the defensive chops and arm to play either corner position. Broadus has a nice contact/power combination for a solid defensive player, and he’s in top physical shape. While he’s not likely to be a star, he could have some years that make him look like a star.

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34. LF Fernando Hawkins (Nashville): Hawkins is a high schooler who had a poor junior year but solid freshman and sophomore seasons. A solid righty contact hitter with a little bit of pop, Hawkins projects as a solid, if unspectacular starter as a corner outfielder, with enough of a glove that he can play the field; he would make a truly outstanding fourth outfielder if he doesn’t do enough to stay in the lineup.

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35. 3B Shimpei Kobayashi (Charm City): Japanese native Kobayashi is a high school third baseman with a big arm and a great attitude who should have enough of a bat to stick in the lineup. He has decent pop for an infielder, and can even fill in at second base, though he won’t be a strong defensive player there. A great attitude should help his career.

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36. 2B Pete Moore (Madison): Moore is a slender (listed at 5’ 11”, 155), switch-hitting infielder in top shape with one of the best gloves in the draft. Nearly fully developed offensively and defensively at age 19, Moore could become even more valuable by developing his skills at secondary infield positions. Moore is not likely to be an offensive superstar, but he could become a supersub or solid middle infield defender for Madison.

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37. C John Chitwood (Louisville): Chitwood dropping all the way to #37 in the draft demonstrates how averse BBA GMs are to a poor defender at catcher, though it also might have had something to do with his $6 million price tag. Chitwood is a rock-solid offensive prospect, with the potential to be one of the best hitting catchers in the BBA, but despite being physically sturdy, his defense is just marginal at the position. Still, you don’t usually see players at off positions with this much potential slide this far.
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[Dington]

Glad to see this return after a year off.

[aaronweiner]

Glad to see this return after a year off.

Last draft I was busy.

[Dington]

Glad to see this return after a year off.

Last draft I was busy.

Figured as much. I thought about dabbling with something but didn’t know where to begin (besides 1st overall of course) so I commend your dedication to this feature.

[JimSlade]

It was good to track how pitching went and compare picks with both my original take and your analysis. Without the 20-80 skills ratings, for some reason, I struggle with getting a read on pitching prospects. That said, I was pretty much in agreement with the first 6 or 7 pitchers taken. Your thoughts reflected my resd on those guys, so maybe I'm starting to get the hang of judging pitching talent in the BBA.

[aaronweiner]

It was good to track how pitching went and compare picks with both my original take and your analysis. Without the 20-80 skills ratings, for some reason, I struggle with getting a read on pitching prospects. That said, I was pretty much in agreement with the first 6 or 7 pitchers taken. Your thoughts reflected my resd on those guys, so maybe I'm starting to get the hang of judging pitching talent in the BBA.

I don't generally ignore the 20-80 ratings because it provides a bit of insight into how the game works. Ultimately, we're at the mercy of the programmers, or at least that's what the Simulationists tell us.

https://vocal.media/futurism/the-simulationist-church

That said, I'll never forget that Dave Corfield was given a 55. A 55! The 20-80 is not absolute.

[Dington]

It was good to track how pitching went and compare picks with both my original take and your analysis. Without the 20-80 skills ratings, for some reason, I struggle with getting a read on pitching prospects. That said, I was pretty much in agreement with the first 6 or 7 pitchers taken. Your thoughts reflected my resd on those guys, so maybe I'm starting to get the hang of judging pitching talent in the BBA.

I don't generally ignore the 20-80 ratings because it provides a bit of insight into how the game works. Ultimately, we're at the mercy of the programmers, or at least that's what the Simulationists tell us.

https://vocal.media/futurism/the-simulationist-church

That said, I'll never forget that Dave Corfield was given a 55. A 55! The 20-80 is not absolute.

I remember him sliding and thinking ‘wtf is everyone doing?!”

[JimSlade]

To be clear, when I refer to the 20-80 ratings, I don't mean just the one overall rating we get here. In my other league, which I was in for 5 seasons before joining here, we use 20-80 for the individual skills as well, like a kid in the draft might have a 30-30-20 for stuff-movement-control with a 60-60-50 for potential. Old habits are hard to break, but for some reason my brain makes more sense of those ratings than the 1-10+ scale. I'm not saying either scale is better or worse. I'm saying that I am worse, or feel less confident, with our 1-10+ ratings.

[aaronweiner]

To be clear, when I refer to the 20-80 ratings, I don't mean just the one overall rating we get here. In my other league, which I was in for 5 seasons before joining here, we use 20-80 for the individual skills as well, like a kid in the draft might have a 30-30-20 for stuff-movement-control with a 60-60-50 for potential. Old habits are hard to break, but for some reason my brain makes more sense of those ratings than the 1-10+ scale. I'm not saying either scale is better or worse. I'm saying that I am worse, or feel less confident, with our 1-10+ ratings.

That's very logical, yes. It's probably better to know relative ratings than actual ratings in all cases. One can also get a feel for one from the other and vice versa depending on how closely one observes, I suspect (and even suggest).

That said, go back and read the disclaimer.

[BaseClogger]

You wrote some pessimistic reviews of my picks a few years ago that look spot on in retrospect so I’m glad you’re ok with the Marriott pick.

[aaronweiner]

You wrote some pessimistic reviews of my picks a few years ago that look spot on in retrospect so I’m glad you’re ok with the Marriott pick.

I'd go so far as to say I think that Marriott is a can't miss pick. Literally based on where he is in 2058, I think he's a primo reliever conversion if he sucks as a starter. If he gets everything he's maybe a future closer doing that. And he should also probably be fine in the rotation so long as he gets everything, or close.

If he was still on the board I'd have had trouble passing him up.

[cheekimonk]

Intangibles are very often the "tiebreaker" in my picks. Lewis is one example. Only 16, the intangibles can boost him a lot...or he is who we think he is and tops out at AA.

[aaronweiner]

Intangibles are very often the "tiebreaker" in my picks. Lewis is one example. Only 16, the intangibles can boost him a lot...or he is who we think he is and tops out at AA.

Lewis doesn't need a huge boost to be a starter in the BBA. Guy might be 7/7/10/7/6 against righties. He's gonna need a caddy but lots of players do.

[RonCo]

This is always a highlight of the season. Thanks, Aaron. Now if you could just get Bushey to bump contact and range, I'd be totally happy.

[bcslouck]

Pretty spot on with Gomez. Couldn't pass him up in that spot. Others have mentioned it, but always a good read and league feature highlight.

[RonCo]

I was surprised at the number of pitchers taken in the first round, because to my eye, after Weller, the pitching pool just didn't seem particularly special.

[RonCo]

Maybe that was wishful thinking, though. I was hoping to spend most of my draft on pitching just because the organization is so threadbare on the mound. I did go pitching in rounds 3-7. So there was that. I dunno. Maybe I'm just over-thinking it. Not like that ever happens.

[aaronweiner]

Pretty spot on with Gomez. Couldn't pass him up in that spot. Others have mentioned it, but always a good read and league feature highlight.

Only reason I didn’t take Gomez was birthdays. Otherwise pick makes sense.

[aaronweiner]

Maybe that was wishful thinking, though. I was hoping to spend most of my draft on pitching just because the organization is so threadbare on the mound. I did go pitching in rounds 3-7. So there was that. I dunno. Maybe I'm just over-thinking it. Not like that ever happens.

Most of the top pitchers had some wart or other, but also it’s important to remember that regardless of this we do only get one amateur pool per year. If that’s the best the universe is willing to do then our top pitchers will have warts.

It’s not like they’re dropping a lot of 9/10 hitters in our lap either. That’s why I’m paying $7.5 million for an 8/9.

[CTBrewCrew]

I look forward to this feature every season @aaronweiner. Great work again.