Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

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Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by mragland » Sat Feb 17, 2024 11:42 am

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Who Are These Guys?

This season we'll be looking at a Top 100 Prospects list from April 29, 2058.

Where Did They Come From?

The Top 100 is becoming increasingly diverse. Only 42 of the Top 100 was born in the USA (down from 60 five years ago), which still accounts for the most prospects on the list, but its numbers are falling. At a distant second is northern neighbor Canada with 7 prospects in the Top 100; followed by Japan and the Peoples Republic of China with 4; Australia, India, Israel, and Taiwan all have 3; Egypt, Greece, Kuwait, Lebanon, Romania, and Turkey all have 2; and 19 countries have one prospect each, Afghanistan, Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, El Salvador, Guam Honduras, Iraq, Ireland, Mexico, Netherlands, Pakistan, Panama, South Africa, and South Korea.

With so many international prospects entering the association via the 'domestic' draft, the very purpose of IFA is called into question. Also, why would international amateurs submit to the draft at all, doing themselves a great disservice by not going after all that easy IFA money?

When Did They Arrive?

It likely comes as no surprise that the greatest number of Top 100 prospects came into the BBA in 2057, but I was surprised that it was just 24 (another nine players from that year's draft have already earned BBA WAR). Seventeen of the Top 100 prospects joined BBA organizations in 2055. Eleven Top 100 prospects signed on with BBA organizations in 2052 and 2054. Ten prospects signed in 2053 and 2051. Eight came on in 2050. Three each signed in 2049 and 2056. Two have already signed on in 2058, thanks to IFA. Lastly, 2048 still accounts for one Top 100 prospect.

How Did They Get Here?

The majority entered the BBA via the amateur draft, 62 in total, though the draft is accounting for fewer of them (down from 67 five years ago). Club scouting discoveries account for a still-growing number of the Top 100, with 29 coming through international complexes. IFA is also seeing its share of Top 100 prospects rise, with seven entering the association via that route. One prospect was drafted, but later signed a free agent deal because they went unsigned by the club that drafted them. One prospect was signed as a free agent by a BBA club after being let go by their GBC club.

Of those 62 Top 100 prospects who were drafted, 20 were drafted with a top ten pick. BBA clubs drafted just 6 of the Top 100 with an 11-20 overall pick. They drafted 12 Top 100 prospects with a 21-50 overall pick, and 6 with a 51-100 overall pick. BBA clubs drafted just 2 of the Top 100 with picks 101-200, a whopping 10 with picks 201-300, and 4 with picks 301-400. No top 100 prospects were acquired with picks 401-500, but 2 prospects were selected with picks after 500, with overall pick 551 being the lowest pick to yield a Top 100 prospect in the list.
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by Trebro » Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:43 pm

I love this feature so much!
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by Jwalk100 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:15 pm

Great breakdown. That takes a lot of work.
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:13 pm

Interesting...7 IFA means that of the 38 international complex guys, 31 were discoveries. I wonder how many of them were made via the development engine and how many came in fully formed.

The intake system is always such a joy.
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:16 pm

Another interesting bit with those numbers...If we're getting maybe 8 discoveries a year, and another (say) 2 UFA...that means we get 10 international players a year per team. Compare that to 20 draft picks, and you've got a 2:1 ratio.

62 draft picks and 38 international players is awfully close to 2:1.

Which says we're as likely to get a good player from one source as we are the other?
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:35 am

Thanks for marking this feature with a season 👍🏻. And thanks for creating it.
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:38 am

Curious to see whos the 2048 pick - thats 10 years in minors and is still a “prospect”
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Re: Who Are These Guys? | Prospecting (58.01)

Post by trmmilwwi » Sun Feb 18, 2024 2:13 pm

Awesome info. Love the data.
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