Total WAR and Wins

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Bob Breum
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Total WAR and Wins

Post by Bob Breum » Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:31 am

One last post on WAR,this time as it relates to wins. In this table, teams are ranked by Total WAR. As you can see, the correlation between WAR and wins is almost perfect. This is, of course, intuitive, but I emphasize it here because if you're not analyzing your roster in such a way as to optimize WAR, you're leaving wins on the table.

WAR.png

For example, suppose you've got a position player that is posting great hitting numbers, but has a poor zone rating. He is costing you WAR, because position player WAR is offensive WAR + defensive WAR. Moving that guy to his natural position removes the negative WAR from the calculation, and now you have a more valuable player in terms of WAR. Of course, everyone loves a CF, middle infielder, or catcher that hits well, but he's costing you if he's not fielding his position well, both in terms of his total WAR and that of your poor pitching staff surrendering more hits than they would otherwise and thus reducing your total rWAR.

By the same token, you may be better off tolerating a punch and judy hitter in an up-the-middle position if he is an elite defender. These guys can post a solid 3 WAR without even sniffing league average offense. My rule of thumb for these kind of guys is if they can muster maybe 85-90 OPS+, they're going be valuable in terms of both WAR and rWAR.

Perhaps you've got a starting pitcher that posts strong ERAs, but rarely goes more than five innings. His WAR is going to be less than a pitcher with more stamina. Good SPs are hard to find, so you'll probably want to keep him in the rotation, but consider this when you are shopping for starting pitching in the future. Good SPs that can go deep into a game are inherently more valuable than the five inning wonders like Blake Snell.

If you've read my team news, you'll know that I evaluate my rosters annually to identify positions that are not contributing their fair share to the team's total WAR. I find it to be a valuable metric to optimize my roster construction.
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BaseClogger
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Re: Total WAR and Wins

Post by BaseClogger » Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:25 am

The positional adjustment in the WAR calculation is interesting because switching players' positions comes down to whether their fielding stats will improve by at least as many runs as the difference in the positional adjustments. I touched on that a bit with this post about Jamie Angwin.

Otherwise, the only deviations you see in that list are due to Pythag W/L luck. Sacramento, for example, is ahead of me in team WAR but won five less games. Well our pythag W/L were nearly identical so it helps close that gap.
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Trebro
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Re: Total WAR and Wins

Post by Trebro » Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:52 pm

This just really solidifies what a lost season 2057 was for us. some because of unexpected player decline and some because I just flat out made poor decisions.
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