2057 - A Deeper Look at HRKAB

[RonCo]

All right, I admit it. After seeing @CTBrewCrew’s cut at the fun little stat known as HRKAB, I got interested. First, I think his calculations were a touch off, which got me reaching for my calculator. Damn him. Second, as I thought about his application of it to the Hall of Fame, I got to wondering what happened if you adjusted that K level down just a notch?

It’s interesting that there are only five guys in the 350/500 club, but what happens if you look at all the guys with at least 350 homers and less than 1,000 strikeouts?

Does that tell us anything about the Hall of Fame candidacies of these guys?

So I grabbed data and took a shot.

It’s an interesting little stat that Mike presented.

Bottom line, it looks like a HRKAB of 3.00 is a bit of a line of demarcation, meaning that if you can hit 350 homers, and stay under that mark, you’re in. If you’re above the line you’d probably better have something else going for you, otherwise, you’re out. Is that right? I dunno. Let’s play with it a little bit.

There are 16 players on the list:

POS	Name	Retired	HOF	B	AB/HR	AB/K	HRKAB	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OPS+	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
CF	Sawyer Silk	1995	x	S	15.65	20.16	-4.51	7480	2178	478	1039	371	.291	153	.410	148	82.5
RF	Gary Barr	2004	x	L	22.68	25.32	-2.64	10888	3345	480	737	430	.307	125	.370	126	84.5
SS	Donnie Rotten	1999	x	L	17.77	19.23	-1.46	8442	2318	475	991	439	.275	125	.368	124	74.2
1B	Duane Whitley	2017	x	L	21.81	20.73	1.07	9683	3217	444	1041	467	.332	144	.398	144	86.7
SS	Bopper Kengos	2018	x	L	17.56	16.33	1.23	12643	3900	720	655	774	.308	130	.371	133	130.2
3B	Emílio Morales	2050	x	R	13.85	11.05	2.80	10221	2724	738	448	925	.267	111	.335	107	56
RF	Mario Balderas	2040		R	15.62	11.42	4.20	5687	1662	364	446	498	.292	128	.363	129	41.8
LF	Lúcio De La Cruz	2055		L	12.94	6.65	6.30	6576	1777	508	519	989	.270	126	.360	126	28
1B	Raúl Hernández	2050		L	12.55	5.94	6.61	5734	1558	457	433	966	.272	123	.359	121	17.9
1B	Dave Manzanillo	2002		R	16.71	8.58	8.13	7152	1901	428	944	834	.266	133	.376	130	67.8
C	Cisco Arreola	2041	x	R	15.85	7.69	8.17	6849	1849	432	978	891	.270	134	.371	135	72.2
1B	Fernando Cruz	2048		R	16.96	8.70	8.26	8020	2255	473	1043	922	.281	127	.361	126	37.3
1B	Manobu Shimizu	Active		L	19.98	10.23	9.75	8211	2835	411	826	803	.345	162	.406	164	88.3
CF	Ross White	2009	x	L	17.50	7.50	10.01	6529	2089	373	777	871	.320	148	.403	152	74.7
RF	Kevin Haubert	Active		L	20.90	10.77	10.13	8379	2338	401	1201	778	.279	131	.382	131	70.8
RF	Juan Donéstevez	1993		L	19.58	7.57	12.00	7537	2384	385	893	995	.316	144	.385	142	78.5

Take a scan of it.

Note that the two guys on the list and in the Hall that fall outside the 3.0 HRKAB level are Cisco Arreola, who had the “Best Catcher In Baseball” thing going his way, and olde-timey center fielder Ross White, who, let’s face it, might not get onto your modern day voter’s ballot.

Note, too, that even the 3.0 limit may be a bit high. As a rule that number may be 2.0, because Emilio Morales is the guy above that line, and it’s clear his sub-category numbers don’t put him in the same class (AVG, OPS+. wOBA, wRC_, and WAR are all not really close to these others). Morales is in the Hall because of one huge number, and that number is 738. Which is fair enough, but makes him more like Arreola and White than the rest.

So, yeah, I’m not sure what to make of this overall, but I admit that I’m a bit smitten with Mike’s stat.

So I thought I’d try this on for size.

Dennis French is going to on the ballot this year. What does HRKAB say about him?

POS	Name	Retired	HOF	B	AB/HR	AB/K	HRKAB	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OPS+	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
CF	Dennis French	2056	?	L	27.62	9.71	17.91	9751	3141	353	623	1004	.322	131	.366	131	80.000

Hmm. Not so good.

I’m thinking French is a likely first ballot guy. Or at least early ballot guy.

But that HRKAB of 17.91 is way below the line.

Of course, in the end, all that means is that I suppose that’s not really the way to view this stat. Instead, dropping a HRKAB below 2.0 says you’re pretty much in, but a number outside it doesn’t say you’re out. Obviously. I mean, there are more than four guys in the Hall, right?

Still, it’s an interesting little game to play, and it allowed me to engage in writing avoidance for much of a morning.

So, yay, Mike. Thanks for the fun article!

Gotta think of more things to do with it.

[drzachary]

Would love to see a variation of this stat that takes fielding into account - home runs, strikeouts, and errors. Call it the HRBEK.

[Dington]

Would love to see a variation of this stat that takes fielding into account - home runs, strikeouts, and errors. Call it the HRBEK.