It’s interesting that there are only five guys in the 350/500 club, but what happens if you look at all the guys with at least 350 homers and less than 1,000 strikeouts?
Does that tell us anything about the Hall of Fame candidacies of these guys?
So I grabbed data and took a shot.
It’s an interesting little stat that Mike presented.
Bottom line, it looks like a HRKAB of 3.00 is a bit of a line of demarcation, meaning that if you can hit 350 homers, and stay under that mark, you’re in. If you’re above the line you’d probably better have something else going for you, otherwise, you’re out. Is that right? I dunno. Let’s play with it a little bit.
There are 16 players on the list:
POS | Name | Retired | HOF | B | AB/HR | AB/K | HRKAB | AB | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF | Sawyer Silk | 1995 | x | S | 15.65 | 20.16 | -4.51 | 7480 | 2178 | 478 | 1039 | 371 | .291 | 153 | .410 | 148 | 82.5 |
RF | Gary Barr | 2004 | x | L | 22.68 | 25.32 | -2.64 | 10888 | 3345 | 480 | 737 | 430 | .307 | 125 | .370 | 126 | 84.5 |
SS | Donnie Rotten | 1999 | x | L | 17.77 | 19.23 | -1.46 | 8442 | 2318 | 475 | 991 | 439 | .275 | 125 | .368 | 124 | 74.2 |
1B | Duane Whitley | 2017 | x | L | 21.81 | 20.73 | 1.07 | 9683 | 3217 | 444 | 1041 | 467 | .332 | 144 | .398 | 144 | 86.7 |
SS | Bopper Kengos | 2018 | x | L | 17.56 | 16.33 | 1.23 | 12643 | 3900 | 720 | 655 | 774 | .308 | 130 | .371 | 133 | 130.2 |
3B | Emílio Morales | 2050 | x | R | 13.85 | 11.05 | 2.80 | 10221 | 2724 | 738 | 448 | 925 | .267 | 111 | .335 | 107 | 56 |
RF | Mario Balderas | 2040 | R | 15.62 | 11.42 | 4.20 | 5687 | 1662 | 364 | 446 | 498 | .292 | 128 | .363 | 129 | 41.8 | |
LF | Lúcio De La Cruz | 2055 | L | 12.94 | 6.65 | 6.30 | 6576 | 1777 | 508 | 519 | 989 | .270 | 126 | .360 | 126 | 28 | |
1B | Raúl Hernández | 2050 | L | 12.55 | 5.94 | 6.61 | 5734 | 1558 | 457 | 433 | 966 | .272 | 123 | .359 | 121 | 17.9 | |
1B | Dave Manzanillo | 2002 | R | 16.71 | 8.58 | 8.13 | 7152 | 1901 | 428 | 944 | 834 | .266 | 133 | .376 | 130 | 67.8 | |
C | Cisco Arreola | 2041 | x | R | 15.85 | 7.69 | 8.17 | 6849 | 1849 | 432 | 978 | 891 | .270 | 134 | .371 | 135 | 72.2 |
1B | Fernando Cruz | 2048 | R | 16.96 | 8.70 | 8.26 | 8020 | 2255 | 473 | 1043 | 922 | .281 | 127 | .361 | 126 | 37.3 | |
1B | Manobu Shimizu | Active | L | 19.98 | 10.23 | 9.75 | 8211 | 2835 | 411 | 826 | 803 | .345 | 162 | .406 | 164 | 88.3 | |
CF | Ross White | 2009 | x | L | 17.50 | 7.50 | 10.01 | 6529 | 2089 | 373 | 777 | 871 | .320 | 148 | .403 | 152 | 74.7 |
RF | Kevin Haubert | Active | L | 20.90 | 10.77 | 10.13 | 8379 | 2338 | 401 | 1201 | 778 | .279 | 131 | .382 | 131 | 70.8 | |
RF | Juan Donéstevez | 1993 | L | 19.58 | 7.57 | 12.00 | 7537 | 2384 | 385 | 893 | 995 | .316 | 144 | .385 | 142 | 78.5 |
Take a scan of it.
Note that the two guys on the list and in the Hall that fall outside the 3.0 HRKAB level are Cisco Arreola, who had the “Best Catcher In Baseball” thing going his way, and olde-timey center fielder Ross White, who, let’s face it, might not get onto your modern day voter’s ballot.
Note, too, that even the 3.0 limit may be a bit high. As a rule that number may be 2.0, because Emilio Morales is the guy above that line, and it’s clear his sub-category numbers don’t put him in the same class (AVG, OPS+. wOBA, wRC_, and WAR are all not really close to these others). Morales is in the Hall because of one huge number, and that number is 738. Which is fair enough, but makes him more like Arreola and White than the rest.
So, yeah, I’m not sure what to make of this overall, but I admit that I’m a bit smitten with Mike’s stat.
So I thought I’d try this on for size.
Dennis French is going to on the ballot this year. What does HRKAB say about him?
POS | Name | Retired | HOF | B | AB/HR | AB/K | HRKAB | AB | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF | Dennis French | 2056 | ? | L | 27.62 | 9.71 | 17.91 | 9751 | 3141 | 353 | 623 | 1004 | .322 | 131 | .366 | 131 | 80.000 |
Hmm. Not so good.
I’m thinking French is a likely first ballot guy. Or at least early ballot guy.
But that HRKAB of 17.91 is way below the line.
Of course, in the end, all that means is that I suppose that’s not really the way to view this stat. Instead, dropping a HRKAB below 2.0 says you’re pretty much in, but a number outside it doesn’t say you’re out. Obviously. I mean, there are more than four guys in the Hall, right?
Still, it’s an interesting little game to play, and it allowed me to engage in writing avoidance for much of a morning.
So, yay, Mike. Thanks for the fun article!
Gotta think of more things to do with it.