2057 – Aging Out: Thirty-Five

[RonCo]

This is the final edition of the series I’m doing on older players in the BBA, again, focusing on when they are dropping off rather than what will happen to those they leave behind as they go. To recap, it seems that from 38 and up, players begin dropping almost like flies. We lose about half the population per season. Thirty-seven year olds look a bit more stout, and though it would probably be best for a third of them or so to retire, most can probably do something for teams that can squint hard at to ignore their deficiencies. 36-year-olds are more of the same, but better: I expect we’ll lose maybe 20% of them.

As you can expect, then, 35-year-olds are still pretty stout. This is, I think that “last class” of the big-name guys we’ve been talking about as the glut of older talent.

The top end of the list includes superstars like the Calgary clobberers, Larry Stinson and Carlomaria Donadoni. Montreal’s Duardo Gonzalez, Jacksonville’s Daniel Pepper, and Brooklyn’s Ernest McBride (all of who registered seasons of 6-8 WAR in 2056.

In total, there are 54 players who were 35 years old last season, essentially two pre team.

Here’s the list:

POS	Name	TM	Age	OVR	POT	CON	GAP	POW	EYE	K's	SPE	STE	PA	AVG	OPS+	WAR
1B	Larry Stinson	CLG	35	80	80	9	10	11	6	7	1	3	717	0.314	171	7.9
3B	Carlomaria Donadoni	CLG	35	80	80	8	9	10	6	7	1	3	713	0.316	188	7.8
3B	Eduardo González	MTL	35	80	80	7	10	8	6	6	4	5	601	0.302	165	6.5
2B	Daniel Pepper	JAX	35	80	80	8	8	8	6	8	5	8	691	0.296	130	6.4
1B	Ernest McBride	BRK	35	80	80	8	10	10	7	7	4	8	665	0.328	164	6.2
SS	Robert Menzies	CHA	35	80	80	8	6	5	8	6	8	10	595	0.326	129	5.9
RF	Donald Miller	JAX	35	70	70	6	9	8	9	5	5	6	679	0.275	144	5.7
LF	Juan Donéstevez	NO	35	75	75	9	8	8	7	9	8	10	687	0.292	129	5.2
C	Calvin Johnson	MTL	35	75	75	5	8	6	5	8	1	4	444	0.271	116	4.4
CF	Manoell Whanon	JAX	35	65	65	7	8	5	6	8	8	11	553	0.31	134	4.4
3B	Alfonso Trinidad	TWC	35	75	75	9	8	8	6	9	1	5	636	0.304	145	4.1
2B	Tomás Borges	NO	35	70	70	6	7	9	6	6	8	10	545	0.277	137	3.9
3B	Mal Fountain	LOU	35	70	70	7	10	8	6	7	6	11	657	0.275	117	3.7
1B	Wilson Estrada	OMA	35	70	70	8	9	8	5	8	2	7	539	0.313	134	3.5
2B	Tomás Durán	BOI	35	60	60	7	8	6	5	9	9	8	549	0.293	119	3.1
RF	José Romero	DM	35	75	75	7	9	9	6	5	3	11	387	0.277	142	3
1B	Ricardo Yánez	POR	35	55	55	7	8	7	5	7	6	10	542	0.287	128	3
C	Ron Shiplack	YS9	35	80	80	8	8	6	5	8	3	9	430	0.292	109	2.8
2B	Scott Bell	EDM	35	65	65	6	9	6	5	8	10	11	592	0.276	106	2.7
1B	Pancho Costa	VAN	35	65	65	8	8	7	4	9	9	10	368	0.314	121	2.7
DH	Pedro Guzmán	MAD	35	70	70	7	11	9	6	7	1	1	532	0.28	133	2.5
1B	Bastião Fardos	BOI	35	60	60	7	8	7	5	7	9	6	456	0.295	131	2.5
CF	Arvin Duggan	YS9	35	70	70	6	7	8	6	7	8	11	589	0.238	99	2.3
1B	Manny Collazo	CCJ	35	55	55	7	8	7	6	8	2	7	508	0.271	124	2.3
RF	Brad Parkinson	NO	35	65	65	6	11	9	6	4	8	11	667	0.237	115	2
RF	Sebastian Fradesso	SA	35	60	60	8	7	8	6	9	8	9	669	0.265	116	1.9
SS	Thomas Kramer	HAW	35	70	70	6	7	5	5	6	8	5	602	0.261	84	1.7
1B	Andrew Gallagher	JAX	35	70	70	7	8	9	6	5	1	7	333	0.283	127	1.4
2B	Ignacio Venegas	TWC	35	60	60	6	7	3	5	8	9	10	217	0.262	80	1.4
2B	Bob Irwin	VAN	35	55	55	8	9	2	3	10	8	10	531	0.298	108	1.4
3B	Jeremy Pickens	VAN	35	60	60	6	8	6	5	5	7	10	269	0.262	109	1.3
SS	Asher Chuang	OMA	35	50	50	4	6	4	6	4	10	11	442	0.196	51	1.3
CF	Bill Morley	MTL	35	60	60	7	6	3	5	6	7	9	239	0.264	91	1.2
2B	Jorge Lugo	BRK	35	55	55	6	7	5	4	8	7	9	554	0.284	91	1.2
C	Artie Billings	LOU	35	50	50	5	6	6	4	6	1	5	122	0.322	145	1.2
3B	Brian Dixon	RCK	35	50	50	7	7	7	3	9	1	1	518	0.269	100	1.1
RF	Jim Ashford	CLG	35	50	50	7	9	6	2	10	9	10	612	0.268	90	1
C	Felipe Delgado	POR	35	55	55	6	7	3	4	11	1	1	186	0.284	89	0.9
SS	Shawn O'Bagy	SA	35	45	45	4	6	4	9	3	2	6	311	0.236	86	0.9
3B	Salvador Allende	MAD	35	60	60	6	6	2	10	8	7	10	315	0.255	78	0.6
RF	Manobu Shimizu	MAD	35	80	80	9	9	8	6	9	8	10	65	0.262	130	0.5
1B	Erik Wignes	JAX	35	55	55	8	7	4	7	9	1	4	388	0.266	93	0.5
RF	José Hurtado	OMA	35	55	55	5	6	8	9	5	1	4	284	0.244	103	0.4
1B	Kenan Reis	TWC	35	55	55	8	7	7	3	9	2	10	92	0.241	91	0.1
C	Octávio Moreno	BRK	35	45	45	6	6	7	5	5	3	5	161	0.303	105	0
CF	Arturo Ahumade	CAB	35	40	40	5	6	2	7	5	6	8	7	0.333	83	0
C	Ichizo Sugiyama	PHX	35	40	40	5	3	7	6	2	1	1	342	0.269	108	0
CF	Manny Peña	MAD	35	50	50	5	7	3	5	6	9	10	315	0.237	55	-0.3
C	Pepe Prieto	TWC	35	55	55	5	10	8	7	5	1	3	271	0.174	46	-0.4
CF	Chuck Dickens	CCJ	35	50	50	7	7	5	2	6	7	10	139	0.241	50	-0.6
CF	Chris Jenkins	LOU	35	40	40	5	8	6	6	5	8	11	156	0.194	53	-0.7
C	Joe Bradshaw	POR	35	55	55	5	8	7	6	5	1	1	356	0.241	80	-0.9
C	Rafael Mendoza	Retired	35	40	40	5	4	5	6	5	1	5	132	0.183	35	-1
1B	José Hernández	Retired	35	45	45	6	7	5	5	8	10	3	364	0.202	42	-2.2

The league lost only two of these players to retirement, both of whom had horrible years. Eight more had either zero or sub-zero WAR seasons, and look to be standing on some thin ice—though every one of them is either a catcher or a center fielder with some value left in the glove, wo will see what happens there.

That continues to be the major learning, I think.

My gut feel after digging through these lists is that a large part of the population of players hanging on are doing so more due to their acumen with the leather than anything else. As long as the bat almost plays, a veteran with defensive ratings has a reasonable shot at a job. Sure, there’s also probably a few too many established starts in these age ranges, but overall I don’t think that’s the bulk of the “issue” (not that this is really an issue so much as a behavior of the system as it stands right now). There’s also the issue of existing contracts being played out rather than axed. Just a random example here is Louisville’s Chris Jenkins, who dropped a 53 OPS+ year, and really can’t play CF much anymore, but his contract has a year left, so the team is likely to keep him as a defensive corner outfielder and hold-your-nose DEFCON RED option in center.

Or not.

We’ll see how long he lasts.

Cherry-picking examples at the bottom of the list brings me to San Antonio’s Shawn O’Baggy, who plays SS just well enough to not be terrible, but who probably has his job until that 9 Eye fades. A guy who can hold down the SS fort in the field, and do a .340 OBP is probably adding value someplace.

Of course, the marquee conversation happens in the upper half of the table, where (counting Sebastion Fradesso’s 1.9 WAR), we had 26 hitters registering 2 or more WAR across the league, with the lowest field-time indicator being YS9’s Ron Shiplack’s 430 PA. These guys made major impacts on the season at age 35, and it would be strange to think they won’t do it again in 2057—though probably a bit faded. The collective turned 106 WAR. Perhaps 2057 sees them as low as 80? I’d guess the over-under would be more like 85 or 90.

You can go through the list yourself, of course.

It’s an interesting exercise.

One interesting thing to note (in light of my viewpoint of defensive specialists skewing the numbers) is to see how few C/SS/CF are in the upper half of the table vs. how many are in the lower half. This makes some sense, of course. But the data seems pretty stark. By my count, 14 of the bottom 23 in the table are defensive-mined positions, whereas only 5 of the top 33 are comprised of C/SS/CF.

Interesting, eh?

Ultimately, I think this says that if the younger cohort couple play better defense, they would probably have booted out a good chunk of even the 35-year-olds.

We’ll see what the future brings, though.

Time always tells its tale.